Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread

[Scraff]

Good morning everyone! Based on my expertise throughout the years, and the knowledge I have gained by spending hours in this madhouse of a forum, I am 100% positive of one thing: It’s going to snow….somewhere. 

[paxpatriot]

We’re 3 days out. If the GFS is light years off at this point, might be time for a toaster in the bath for it.

[TSSN+]

Definitely some improvement upstairs 

 

[mitchnick]

Not to pile on, but it is what it is. Ukie ensembles and latest Srefs are lousy. Can't believe the Gfs is so different even with its track record. Gfs is on its own with an epic fail or coup.

[Terpeast]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Definitely some improvement upstairs 

 

Yeah, the surface may not show it now, but if it keeps trending this way, it'll be closer to a boom scenario

[wasnow215]

6 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Not a fan of euro for mby but its probably closer to being correct

As a met-what is your professional opinion about how the model of life the GFS can continue to be mocked as being so bad-which it has been-but continue to be a tool used by the NWS?

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Not to pile on, but it is what it is. Ukie ensembles and latest Srefs are lousy. Can't believe the Gfs is so different even with its track record. Gfs is on its own with an epic fail or coup.

The srefs are just as lousy as the gfs in terms of accuracy anyway. 

[MillvilleWx]

Just now, Terpeast said:

Yeah, the surface may not show it now, but if it keeps trending this way, it'll be closer to a boom scenario

Setup is truly close to being something larger, but it's so freaking convoluted to get to the boom scenario and the AI guidance is starting to get the locked in look on the IVT type scenario (Which scores us some snow), but the coastal enhancement might be just out of reach. GFS is the GFS, so I'll admire it, but it's on its own at this point. Something in the middle of the EC and GFS would actually be pretty sweet, which is kind of what the AIFS is signaling. 

[wasnow215]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

The srefs are just as lousy as the gfs in terms of accuracy anyway. 

What does it say though that most of the models aren't that great? Pretty much no one knows much until 48 hours out

[Terpeast]

3 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

As a met-what is your professional opinion about how the model of life the GFS can continue to be mocked as being so bad-which it has been-but continue to be a tool used by the NWS?

I don't know why it's verifying worse than other models. Maybe related to budget constraints, they're focusing on AI (as we can see with the new AI gfs and its ensembles, and the hybrid) instead of improving the operational model itself like ECMWF is doing with both.

[MillvilleWx]

2 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

As a met-what is your professional opinion about how the model of life the GFS can continue to be mocked as being so bad-which it has been-but continue to be a tool used by the NWS?

The GFS is just one tool in the tool box, but we don't base full forecasts on it. We also deviate from the GFS when it's on an island, so there are times (More frequent last few years) we take a non-GFS forecast approach and blend other guidance accordingly. WPC consistently beats the GFS on precip, and that's because we deviate from it when it's applicable. 

[CAPE]

The 6z Eps is less impactful with the coastal low than 0z. Further east and weaker.

[Terpeast]

Just now, CAPE said:

The 6z Eps is less impactful with the coastal low than 0z. Further east and weaker.

Big clue on where this is going.

[stormy]

2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Setup is truly close to being something larger, but it's so freaking convoluted to get to the boom scenario and the AI guidance is starting to get the locked in look on the IVT type scenario (Which scores us some snow), but the coastal enhancement might be just out of reach. GFS is the GFS, so I'll admire it, but it's on its own at this point. Something in the middle of the EC and GFS would actually be pretty sweet, which is kind of what the AIFS is signaling. 

I appreciate your wisdom.

[Ralph Wiggum]

8 minutes ago, paxpatriot said:

We’re 3 days out. If the GFS is light years off at this point, might be time for a toaster in the bath for it.

It has done this 4 times already this season and stubbornly caved starting at 2.5 days lead time. Why will this be any different?

[MillvilleWx]

Just now, CAPE said:

The 6z Eps is less impactful with the coastal low than 0z. Further east and weaker.

I expect things begin consolidating within the next couple runs, then we parse details on ratios and location of the IVT. That is truly a difficult task in these setups too, so that could be a truly short term trend monitoring which I hate lol

[Ji]

The 6z Eps is less impactful with the coastal low than 0z. Further east and weaker.

Thanks Will

[LordBaltimore]

5 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I don't know why it's verifying worse than other models. Maybe related to budget constraints, they're focusing on AI (as we can see with the new AI gfs and its ensembles, and the hybrid) instead of improving the operational model itself like ECMWF is doing with both.

They're focusing on getting JEDI to one day work instead of tuning the old DA system. It will get better once people actually work on it

[wasnow215]

4 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I don't know why it's verifying worse than other models. Maybe related to budget constraints, they're focusing on AI (as we can see with the new AI gfs and its ensembles, and the hybrid) instead of improving the operational model itself like ECMWF is doing with both.

That seems like a very reasonable answer and thank you! So would you say it would be smart more to lean more on those "big 3" 5 to 7 days out of any event or other reasons people would look at medium range forecasts like travel, vacations, etc?

Also do you think the GEM n Ukie should be given more credence than the GFS in the same time frame?

[psuhoffman]

My fear is the inverted trough keeps trending east and we end up west of everything. That’s my “how we get screwed” vision. 

[SnowenOutThere]

I think we still got a solid shot at a 1-3 inch paste job but unless we get the GFS to be mostly right anything bigger is unlikely. 

[midatlanticweather]

MAYBE base the snow potential on the GFS Snow depth... so you are closer the end result than what you see from the 10:1 crazy stuff! LOL! The GFS is going to be the exaggerated fish story that people share! 

I agree the Euro upper levels look better. This has favored (at least in my mind) a miss with the best chance east and northeast. If anything, the Miller B was going to screw the middle area.... pull a Raliegh... but I think the amounts will be way less like most models are clearly indicating.. and the temps are not going to help accumulations...
 

Maybe 12z does a dramatic change... it will likely be the GFS giving up its fantasy. The gfs has been on its own a lot this year. In a way, it has made us track longer than we should have. 

Thanks for the input from the Mets and the more thoughtful posters! 

 

 

[anotherman]

My fear is the inverted trough keeps trending east and we end up west of everything. That’s my “how we get screwed” vision. 

Yeah probably.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

4 minutes ago, anotherman said:

Yeah probably.

Yeah I feel like Norluns are not something you can count on.   What's interesting to me is that the Euro AI is just on the verge of blurring the norlun and more direct coastal influence, makes me think we can't rule out a closer coastal yet.

[blizzardmeiser]

32 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Yeah, the surface may not show it now, but if it keeps trending this way, it'll be closer to a boom scenario

I’m hearing references on social media referring to it as the blizzard of 26!

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, blizzardmeiser said:

I’m hearing references on social media referring to it as the blizzard of 26!

Dear god

[dailylurker]

5 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Yeah I feel like Norluns are not something you can count on.   What's interesting to me is that the Euro AI is just on the verge of blurring the norlun and more direct coastal influence, makes me think we can't rule out a closer coastal yet.

I remember the only one that I've ever seen. It was a few days after the blizzard of 96. I was probably 15. I was hiking that day through deep snow when it started to flurry. Within about 30 mins it was dumping just as hard as it did a few days earlier during to storm. I had no idea what was happening. By the time I made it out of the woods we had about 7" of new snow.

Banter story- my apologies 

[anotherman]

I’m hearing references on social media referring to it as the blizzard of 26!

People are stupid.

[TSSN+]

A weather page randomly popped up on my fb and the guy only uses the gfs to make his forecasts. How’s he still relevant? Lol. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

A weather page randomly popped up on my fb and the guy only uses the gfs to make his forecasts. How’s he still relevant? Lol. 

The algorithm knows people like sensational weather maps.