Scraff Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Good morning everyone! Based on my expertise throughout the years, and the knowledge I have gained by spending hours in this madhouse of a forum, I am 100% positive of one thing: It’s going to snow….somewhere. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 We’re 3 days out. If the GFS is light years off at this point, might be time for a toaster in the bath for it. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Definitely some improvement upstairs 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Not to pile on, but it is what it is. Ukie ensembles and latest Srefs are lousy. Can't believe the Gfs is so different even with its track record. Gfs is on its own with an epic fail or coup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Just now, TSSN+ said: Definitely some improvement upstairs Yeah, the surface may not show it now, but if it keeps trending this way, it'll be closer to a boom scenario 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 6 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Not a fan of euro for mby but its probably closer to being correct As a met-what is your professional opinion about how the model of life the GFS can continue to be mocked as being so bad-which it has been-but continue to be a tool used by the NWS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Not to pile on, but it is what it is. Ukie ensembles and latest Srefs are lousy. Can't believe the Gfs is so different even with its track record. Gfs is on its own with an epic fail or coup. The srefs are just as lousy as the gfs in terms of accuracy anyway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Just now, Terpeast said: Yeah, the surface may not show it now, but if it keeps trending this way, it'll be closer to a boom scenario Setup is truly close to being something larger, but it's so freaking convoluted to get to the boom scenario and the AI guidance is starting to get the locked in look on the IVT type scenario (Which scores us some snow), but the coastal enhancement might be just out of reach. GFS is the GFS, so I'll admire it, but it's on its own at this point. Something in the middle of the EC and GFS would actually be pretty sweet, which is kind of what the AIFS is signaling. 7 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: The srefs are just as lousy as the gfs in terms of accuracy anyway. What does it say though that most of the models aren't that great? Pretty much no one knows much until 48 hours out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 3 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: As a met-what is your professional opinion about how the model of life the GFS can continue to be mocked as being so bad-which it has been-but continue to be a tool used by the NWS? I don't know why it's verifying worse than other models. Maybe related to budget constraints, they're focusing on AI (as we can see with the new AI gfs and its ensembles, and the hybrid) instead of improving the operational model itself like ECMWF is doing with both. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 2 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: As a met-what is your professional opinion about how the model of life the GFS can continue to be mocked as being so bad-which it has been-but continue to be a tool used by the NWS? The GFS is just one tool in the tool box, but we don't base full forecasts on it. We also deviate from the GFS when it's on an island, so there are times (More frequent last few years) we take a non-GFS forecast approach and blend other guidance accordingly. WPC consistently beats the GFS on precip, and that's because we deviate from it when it's applicable. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 The 6z Eps is less impactful with the coastal low than 0z. Further east and weaker. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Just now, CAPE said: The 6z Eps is less impactful with the coastal low than 0z. Further east and weaker. Big clue on where this is going. 3 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Setup is truly close to being something larger, but it's so freaking convoluted to get to the boom scenario and the AI guidance is starting to get the locked in look on the IVT type scenario (Which scores us some snow), but the coastal enhancement might be just out of reach. GFS is the GFS, so I'll admire it, but it's on its own at this point. Something in the middle of the EC and GFS would actually be pretty sweet, which is kind of what the AIFS is signaling. I appreciate your wisdom. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 8 minutes ago, paxpatriot said: We’re 3 days out. If the GFS is light years off at this point, might be time for a toaster in the bath for it. It has done this 4 times already this season and stubbornly caved starting at 2.5 days lead time. Why will this be any different? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Just now, CAPE said: The 6z Eps is less impactful with the coastal low than 0z. Further east and weaker. I expect things begin consolidating within the next couple runs, then we parse details on ratios and location of the IVT. That is truly a difficult task in these setups too, so that could be a truly short term trend monitoring which I hate lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 The 6z Eps is less impactful with the coastal low than 0z. Further east and weaker.Thanks Will 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LordBaltimore Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 5 minutes ago, Terpeast said: I don't know why it's verifying worse than other models. Maybe related to budget constraints, they're focusing on AI (as we can see with the new AI gfs and its ensembles, and the hybrid) instead of improving the operational model itself like ECMWF is doing with both. They're focusing on getting JEDI to one day work instead of tuning the old DA system. It will get better once people actually work on it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 4 minutes ago, Terpeast said: I don't know why it's verifying worse than other models. Maybe related to budget constraints, they're focusing on AI (as we can see with the new AI gfs and its ensembles, and the hybrid) instead of improving the operational model itself like ECMWF is doing with both. That seems like a very reasonable answer and thank you! So would you say it would be smart more to lean more on those "big 3" 5 to 7 days out of any event or other reasons people would look at medium range forecasts like travel, vacations, etc? Also do you think the GEM n Ukie should be given more credence than the GFS in the same time frame? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 My fear is the inverted trough keeps trending east and we end up west of everything. That’s my “how we get screwed” vision. 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 I think we still got a solid shot at a 1-3 inch paste job but unless we get the GFS to be mostly right anything bigger is unlikely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 MAYBE base the snow potential on the GFS Snow depth... so you are closer the end result than what you see from the 10:1 crazy stuff! LOL! The GFS is going to be the exaggerated fish story that people share! I agree the Euro upper levels look better. This has favored (at least in my mind) a miss with the best chance east and northeast. If anything, the Miller B was going to screw the middle area.... pull a Raliegh... but I think the amounts will be way less like most models are clearly indicating.. and the temps are not going to help accumulations... Maybe 12z does a dramatic change... it will likely be the GFS giving up its fantasy. The gfs has been on its own a lot this year. In a way, it has made us track longer than we should have. Thanks for the input from the Mets and the more thoughtful posters! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 My fear is the inverted trough keeps trending east and we end up west of everything. That’s my “how we get screwed” vision. Yeah probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 4 minutes ago, anotherman said: Yeah probably. Yeah I feel like Norluns are not something you can count on. What's interesting to me is that the Euro AI is just on the verge of blurring the norlun and more direct coastal influence, makes me think we can't rule out a closer coastal yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 32 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Yeah, the surface may not show it now, but if it keeps trending this way, it'll be closer to a boom scenario I’m hearing references on social media referring to it as the blizzard of 26! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 1 minute ago, blizzardmeiser said: I’m hearing references on social media referring to it as the blizzard of 26! Dear god 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 5 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Yeah I feel like Norluns are not something you can count on. What's interesting to me is that the Euro AI is just on the verge of blurring the norlun and more direct coastal influence, makes me think we can't rule out a closer coastal yet. I remember the only one that I've ever seen. It was a few days after the blizzard of 96. I was probably 15. I was hiking that day through deep snow when it started to flurry. Within about 30 mins it was dumping just as hard as it did a few days earlier during to storm. I had no idea what was happening. By the time I made it out of the woods we had about 7" of new snow. Banter story- my apologies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 I’m hearing references on social media referring to it as the blizzard of 26!People are stupid. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 A weather page randomly popped up on my fb and the guy only uses the gfs to make his forecasts. How’s he still relevant? Lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: A weather page randomly popped up on my fb and the guy only uses the gfs to make his forecasts. How’s he still relevant? Lol. The algorithm knows people like sensational weather maps. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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