dendrite Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 NCEP slicin and dicin at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Not sure I’ve seen an event with such a high floor here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Wow - GFS is a toaster bath. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 GFS is advisory here LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Just now, CoastalWx said: .4” ORH and barely an inch here. We cancel. Flood gates have opened for bridge jumping to commence 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: It's becoming a limiting factor for me. Taking this out of top 5 contention about as fast as the models have quietly been speeding this up on everyone. Some runs I've seen are under 12 hrs with the bulk and go to wind whipped flurries that only look like the storms still going because of the snow being blown around type of event. Heh. I don't think this is slowing back down, either. It's part of the world we live in where the atmosphere is challenged to do that kind of storm. As much as I see all that, I also am a bit suss re the models becoming radially so compact. It's almost like relative to climatology, it is too intense? 968 mb lows passing between the Del Marv and just inside the BM ... it seems we have better QPF sprawl when shallower "big" storms. interesting... Storms are like snow flakes. No two are exactly the same. What happened to storms that have a nice area of just light to occasionally moderate snow after the big thump that just lasts for hours and hours? Maybe it really is just fiction. It seems most events except in spring are hit and run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: I am a BIT worried looking at the latest NAMs and models in general for southern CT. March 2018 had 20+ long Island while down by the coast here 2.5 inches lol. Think it was the cold air drain coming down the CT river valley. yea there were massive massive red flags prior to that system with a lot of dry air showing up on 700RH before that system. The night before there were literally models that completely whiffed CT and some that had 12-20. This is nothing like that, that was truly a bad bust with ws warnings up to the MA boarder with light r/s during the day and an inch or two of slop at night 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Are we concerned with the 12z GFS? Significant move east both on LP position and QPF... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 25 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: Final call, no change. 1-2' mostly region wide with 2'+ SE MA and Ocean/Monmouth counties From your site. This is my fear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 GFS is almost back to a scrape, all the goods go out to sea with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 If you believe the GFS take down the warning and don't even bother with the advy here Swfes >>> coastals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 lol at the GFS. Friday’s storm > Blizzard on that here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 I'm just gonna keep looping the 3km NAM and pretend the GFS didn't run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 I trust the Mesos now vs the longer-range models at this juncture. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VivaManchVegas Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: Wow - GFS is a toaster bath. Unbelievable... so steady for so long now this.. laughable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said: yea there were massive massive red flags prior to that system with a lot of dry air showing up on 700RH before that system. The night before there were literally models that completely whiffed CT and some that had 12-20. This is nothing like that, that was truly a bad bust with ws warnings up to the MA boarder with light r/s during the day and an inch or two of slop at night I was hoping the storm would gain more latitude. Not liking the cut backs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Not sure I’ve seen an event with such a high floor here as soon as you get excited we get rugged ... a great contrarian indicator tbh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 No tug back and with that it leaves all of the back side energy from being pulled into the circulation close enough to the coast to have much of an impact. Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Just now, ma blizzard said: as soon as you get excited we get rugged ... a great contrarian indicator tbh We need him to be meh again. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wilton_wx Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Wow. We are really going to get rugged. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Commence the dives Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Lucy has arrived. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Hopefully the obligatory GFS burp run. It was either 2013 or 2015 that it had one 24 hours out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: This is why I was saying yesterday we need the storm to gain more latitude. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 lol epic rug pull wtf. Hope it’s on crack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Overall, 12z was a cutback, aside from the Germans Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Tenor of the season unfortunately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 That wasn’t a messenger shuffle that was a messenger leap 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 The mid-levels don't really look terrible...I mean just from looking at them I would think higher QPF but who knows. There are so many processes going on as the low rapidly develops and strengthens there is so much to truly factor in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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