“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Is there any reasonable mechanism that would support that?

There could be and probably are many reasons but occlusion too quickly would support shutting off the influx of moisture into the storm but that doesn't really look to be the case. Another possibility is with how quickly the storm is strengthening, the best fronto is collapsing south and east closer to the low but that doesn't seem to be the case either because the front just simply dies over us and we seem to be sort of smoking subsidence. I am still leaning towards this being completely overstated but if this happens we can't say we're surprised by it lol

[MJO812]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

ya was further east but heading north now

 

[DavisStraight]

Just now, Bryan63 said:

Made the decision to send my wife and kids to mother in laws with a full house generator. Not feeling great about holding on to power here tomorrow with some aged trees on our street.

That's great, grab a bottle of bourbon and watch the snow in the dark.

[WxWatcher007]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

HRRR trying to curl this sucker north tomorrow morning.

We pray but we know that’s wrong…

[ineedsnow]

western NJ Eastern NY and southern VT getting a deform band? 

[ROOSTA]

WPC doing a live feed on FB.

[Greg]

Scott is correct it just cuts north

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

We pray but we know that’s wrong…

When you have an H5 low like that and convection, it wouldn’t shock me if you see wobbles like that. Almost like a hurricane. But yeah, II don’t expect it to go over Nantucket.

[kdxken]

 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

western NJ Eastern NY and southern VT getting a deform band? 

There will be a fronto band pretty far west, impossible to predict where.

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

When you have an H5 low like that and convection, it wouldn’t shock me if you see wobbles like that. Almost like a hurricane. But yeah, II don’t expect it to go over Nantucket.

 

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, ROOSTA said:

WPC doing a live feed on FB.

@mahk_webstah 

[powderfreak]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

There will be a front band pretty far west, impossible to predict where.

Find the HRRR western band, lol.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

I think those winds are overdone for Western areas.  Obviously overdone for the Valley, but I think we always build that caveat in. Also wondering how much dry air is gonna get pushed down through the valley if we get sustained winds over 20mph? 
Interested to see how high Kevin and some of the higher Connecticut spots gust.  You should be howling pretty good at your location.

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Find the HRRR western band, lol.

3/4 per hour for 3 hrs if 10 to 1

[Hoth]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Find the HRRR western band, lol.

Am I really going to shadow off Mt Tolland down here? You'd think we had Alps in eastern CT blocking the flow with that depiction.

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I think those winds are overdone for Western areas.  Obviously overdone for the Valley, but I think we build that always that caveat in. Also wondering how much dry air is gonna get pushed down through the valley if we get sustained winds over 20mph? 
Interested to see how high Kevin and some of the higher Connecticut spots gust.  You should be howling pretty good at your location.

Forest shields me on ene winds some 

[weatherwiz]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

HRRR trying to curl this sucker north tomorrow morning.

Let's go curling 

[Prismshine Productions]

The cut off is going to be most impressive.  I could see Albany and Bennington getting 1”-3”.  

Im gonna cry if I only get that too

Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

[TheSnowman]

For only the 2nd time in my Life:  The NWS had me OFFICIAL in the 24-30 Range.

 

 My God.

 

But Where can I find the 1 in 10 / 10% Map?  It used to be so easy.  Can someone link it?  

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Forest shields me on ene winds some 

It will be interesting to see how this area does with stronger winds out of the northeast. Not really the direction the trees are used to.

[dendrite]

10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

There could be and probably are many reasons but occlusion too quickly would support shutting off the influx of moisture into the storm but that doesn't really look to be the case. Another possibility is with how quickly the storm is strengthening, the best fronto is collapsing south and east closer to the low but that doesn't seem to be the case either because the front just simply dies over us and we seem to be sort of smoking subsidence. I am still leaning towards this being completely overstated but if this happens we can't say we're surprised by it lol

Yeah some of the models are occluding this pretty quickly.

 

Not sure what will be more correct. But it’s not often we have a 970ish long tracked seclusion going near the BM.

Kinda fascinated to see how it plays out from the outside looking in.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Let's go curling 

I don't think these models are going to stop until they at once finally succeed in creating the perfect total tropospheric set up with 0 happening. 

[DomNH]

Taking the under on winds here as always, but we do have some already saggy evergreens from Friday's storm. Wonder if that'll come into play. 

[FXWX]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Let's go curling 

Watch that jet streak rounding the bend!!!!

[mostman]

1 minute ago, TheSnowman said:

For only the 2nd time in my Life:  The NWS had me OFFICIAL in the 24-30 Range.

 

 My God.

 

But Where can I find the 10% Map?  It used to be so easy.  Can someone link it?  

https://www.weather.gov/box/winter
 

Click on probabilistic 

[powderfreak]

2 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Am I really going to shadow off Mt Tolland down here? You'd think we had Alps in eastern CT blocking the flow with that depiction.

You guys get smoked before that though… that’s just a snapshot to show where the HRRR thinks the western band ends up.

S.CT looks like it rocks several hours earlier than the BOS crowd.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Im gonna cry if I only get that too

Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk
 

You’ll do better than that.  
This really isn’t our storm, just hope for some good deformation with good growth.  Set the bar at being happy with 8”-10” in Brattleboro and you should be fine.  
 

[ROOSTA]

Beast is going negative.

Lightning exploding on the N side!

[GuitarFreak]

5 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

For only the 2nd time in my Life:  The NWS had me OFFICIAL in the 24-30 Range.

 

 My God.

 

But Where can I find the 1 in 10 / 10% Map?  It used to be so easy.  Can someone link it?  

https://www.weather.gov/box/winter#tab-2