“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco

[dendrite]

NCEP slicin and dicin at 12z

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Not sure I’ve seen an event with such a high floor here 

[CT Rain]

Wow - GFS is a toaster bath. 

[DomNH]

GFS is advisory here LOL. 

[weatherwiz]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

.4” ORH and barely an inch here. We cancel.

Flood gates have opened for  bridge jumping to commence

[codfishsnowman]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's becoming a limiting factor for me.  Taking this out of top 5 contention about as fast as the models have quietly been speeding this up on everyone.  Some runs I've seen are under 12 hrs with the bulk and go to wind whipped flurries that only look like the storms still going because of the snow being blown around type of event.  Heh.   

I don't think this is slowing back down, either.  It's part of the world we live in where the atmosphere is challenged to do that kind of storm.  

As much as I see all that, I also am a bit suss re the models becoming radially so compact.  It's almost like relative to climatology, it is too intense?   968 mb lows passing between the Del Marv and just inside the BM ... it seems we have better QPF sprawl when shallower "big" storms.   interesting... 

Storms are like snow flakes. No two are exactly the same.  

What happened to storms that have a nice area of just light to occasionally moderate snow after the big thump that just lasts for hours and hours? Maybe it really is just fiction. It seems most events except in spring are hit and run.

[The 4 Seasons]

5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I am a BIT worried looking at the latest NAMs and models in general for southern CT.

March 2018 had 20+ long Island while down by the coast here 2.5 inches lol.

Think it was the cold air drain coming down the CT river valley.

yea there were massive massive red flags prior to that system with a lot of dry air showing up on 700RH before that system. The night before there were literally models that completely whiffed CT and some that had 12-20. This is nothing like that, that was truly a bad bust with ws warnings up to the MA boarder with light r/s during the day and an inch or two of slop at night

[CCHurricane]

Are we concerned with the 12z GFS?

Significant move east both on LP position and QPF...

[EastonSN+]

25 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Final call, no change. 1-2' mostly region wide with 2'+ SE MA and Ocean/Monmouth counties

 

From your site. This is my fear.

 

[Kitz Craver]

GFS is almost back to a scrape, all the goods go out to sea with it 

[radarman]

If you believe the GFS take down the warning and don't even bother with the advy here

Swfes >>> coastals

[HoarfrostHubb]

lol at the GFS.   Friday’s storm > Blizzard on that here

[ma blizzard]

I'm just gonna keep looping the 3km NAM and pretend the GFS didn't run  

[Greg]

I trust the Mesos now vs the longer-range models at this juncture. 

[MJO812]

[VivaManchVegas]

1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

Wow - GFS is a toaster bath. 

Unbelievable...  so steady for so long now this.. laughable. 

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said:

yea there were massive massive red flags prior to that system with a lot of dry air showing up on 700RH before that system. The night before there were literally models that completely whiffed CT and some that had 12-20. This is nothing like that, that was truly a bad bust with ws warnings up to the MA boarder with light r/s during the day and an inch or two of slop at night

I was hoping the storm would gain more latitude. Not liking the cut backs.

[ma blizzard]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Not sure I’ve seen an event with such a high floor here 

as soon as you get excited we get rugged ... a great contrarian indicator tbh 

[Kitz Craver]

No tug back and with that it leaves all of the back side energy from being pulled into the circulation close enough to the coast to have much of an impact. Yikes.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ma blizzard said:

as soon as you get excited we get rugged ... a great contrarian indicator tbh 

We need him to be meh again. 

[wilton_wx]

Wow. We are really going to get rugged.

[Johnno]

Commence the dives

[HoarfrostHubb]

Lucy has arrived. 

[SouthCoastMA]

Hopefully the obligatory GFS burp run. It was either 2013 or 2015 that it had one 24 hours out

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This is why I was saying yesterday we need the storm to gain more latitude.

[Hoth]

lol epic rug pull wtf. Hope it’s on crack. 

[SouthCoastMA]

Overall, 12z was a cutback, aside from the Germans 

[Johnno]

Tenor of the season unfortunately 

[Kitz Craver]

That wasn’t a messenger shuffle that was a messenger leap

[weatherwiz]

The mid-levels don't really look terrible...I mean just from looking at them I would think higher QPF but who knows. There are so many processes going on as the low rapidly develops and strengthens there is so much to truly factor in