“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco

[subdude]

43 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

No cutters.  Very little melting.   Great winter already even before this 

Drove through Hubb last night Barre Rd on way to N. Brookfield. Snowpack out in Ware, New Braintree is about half of what we have. 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, Johnno said:

Yup never forget that morning looked to be slipping east and then boom

For sure…we were on the low low end in that Feb ‘13 forecast….worked out just fine. This is gonna be great- 16-20 inches for most…banding not withstanding. 

[Modfan2]

Still not sure what to think for IMBY, I am in a valley just NE from Ginxy, thinking 14-18” of snow with higher amounts in the higher elevations to my north and east. Wind wise maybe gusts 40-45 but thinking higher the more elevation. 

[Kitz Craver]

Modeling be dammed it’s nearly now cast time boys

[moneypitmike]

4 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Time for you to bag out of work and stay put

Except I'd have to be away from work for 3 days. 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

For someone who claims they love only big wind, wound up coastals, this is truly a shit post.

Shit posts are his speciality. 

[Damage In Tolland]

9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

maybe it's me being a weenie but based on the mid levels I would absolutely bet QPF ends up being much higher across Connecticut. Unless things really do shut off that quickly but that mid level evolution and low tracks seem pretty prime to me for CT

It snows and accumulates into late tomorrow night 

[moneypitmike]

The 3K did cut my Maine qpf in half.  

There's always Wednesday and Friday to make up some ground.

[wxeyeNH]

13 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah the nams are still very impactful WOR…it would just be the lower end of forecasts verifying. But I get it…it would feel like a rug pull if this verified and I’d want to break Ray’s kids’ toys too.

It's the NAM.  The 12Z gives me  0.00"

[The 4 Seasons]

6 minutes ago, OrangeCTWX said:

3/4 an inch upon actual measurement but ya is been snowing lightly since late last night 

thats sick, very impressive considering its just wet here and we are very close

[Greg]

19 minutes ago, DomNH said:

Sell high ratios with the wind. 

I agree with your statement. I think some of the ratios will be mostly (10:1 - 13:1) in the majority of this storm. Maybe someone a decent distance away with good elevation might be 15:1 but that would be the minority in this situation.

[OrangeCTWX]

2 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

thats sick, very impressive considering its just wet here and we are very close

Yep trees and everything are covered. My wife drove to Madison at 6am and said it was snowing through east haven but then stopped immediately once you hit Branford. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

It’s been light, small flakes all morning in Greenfield.  Setting the mood. 

[JKEisMan]

For those WOR, while NAM is backing down some, RRFS and FV3 bumping up.  Will see what 12z HREF gives.

[TalcottWx]

1 hour ago, Kitz Craver said:

Southern CT could be ground zero

It's just which side of 91 gets the most. 

[Go Kart Mozart]

I don't know what the FV3 is, but I'll take it (bargaining).

[Kitz Craver]

Just now, Go Kart Mozart said:

I don't know what the FV3 is, but I'll take it (bargaining).

Comes out of the GFS suite no?

[Torch Tiger]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

It’s been light, small flakes all morning in Greenfield.  Setting the mood. 

Heaviest of the storm wor?

[Spaizzo]

We have light snow and a little less than inch in ansonia east expecting this from the early showers


.

[mattm4242]

Cape Ann will do well again, but holy crap the south shore will no longer exist after tomorrow.

[ORH_wxman]

That arc of convection getting entrained very early tomorrow over SE MA is gonna be crazy. That’s where we could see thundersnow and the rates getting over 3”+ per hour. 

[met_fan]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, that was before this blizzard....no one will whine after this.

It's possible I'm in the low to mid 40s for seasonal snowfall after this storm. Probably a little above average for this location for late February, but a far cry from locations in almost every direction from me. I'm not complaining...that's just how it goes out here.

[SJonesWX]

20 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

For someone who claims they love only big wind, wound up coastals, this is truly a shit post.

he is ATATT. All troll all the time.

he is definitely trying too hard, again.

I have said it before, but I don’t know why the entire forum doesn’t have him on ignore. his next genuine post will be his first.

[Greg]

[butterfish55]

The 3K did cut my Maine qpf in half.  
There's always Wednesday and Friday to make up some ground.

Imagine if you had a place to go that was going to get 3"+ of qpf and 70+ mph wins? That would be something

[TalcottWx]

28 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I 100% agree with you, but If that band magically dies over CT and redevelops out east, there were be some angry folks lol 

I am absolutely scared of this right now.

[Typhoon Tip]

There's some normalization going on in the NAM back east, too.   It's subtle, but ex, Login was 53 kts in the middle BL sustained wind fields yesterday, and now it is only 41 in the FOUS grid.    The QPF is down a bit too.   It's also down in PHL and NYC compared to what it was yesterday.   

I suspect yesterday's cinemas were the max d-drippers for this storm's modeling movie, and now we're just going to end up with a major and not much more if this continues.  It's still perhaps something more than major in the SE zones - for now.  Fine. But if we limit the areal coverage it gets harder to justify distinction. 

I say this ...not just because of the NAM, but there's a 10 ... 12% amplitude theft going on across the board as we've entered these late modeling innings. 

(note, I'm not incorporating the HRRR or the like).   

Now-cast could perhaps bring the theft back, ... but, since that behavior has been noted over recent years worth of modeling ( actually), it's sort of built in confidence/expectation to take place.    As an aside, it seems what we haven't seen is a modeled is a system that started out meager and grew 8% per run until go time.  It seems like technology favors going the other way, either by error or design... We're always giving back in the closing arguments.    

 

[JKEisMan]

14 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Heaviest of the storm wor?

You got it, torch troller

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, butterfish55 said:

25 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

The 3K did cut my Maine qpf in half.  
There's always Wednesday and Friday to make up some ground.

Imagine if you had a place to go that was going to get 3"+ of qpf and 70+ mph wins? That would be something

We’re gonna be ribbing MPM for years if he buys a place in Mattapoisett and then misses a top 3-5 storm there all time. 

[MuddyWx]

Heaviest stuff looks like it rolls in this area at 5-6am.. alarm will be set early