“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco

[78Blizzard]

11 minutes ago, ma blizzard said:

I feel dirty for posting this but .. 

That had the slightest of ticks west from 15z.  No eastward movement in another model.  Sorry GFS.

[40/70 Benchmark]

22 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

when all is said and done, most likely outcome is similar to that that POS in 2022?  jmo

Very possible...I hope not.

[mahk_webstah]

Just now, 78Blizzard said:

That had the slightest of ticks west from 15z.  No eastward movement in another model.  Sorry GFS.

That seems fairly far north. Where does it go from there?

[moneypitmike]

2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Best run of SREFs.

that could even give me a snow day

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Wait you divorced Raymond  ?

Does Harv know he prefers Tip?

[H2Otown_WX]

18 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

You had one of the greatest melts of all time! 
Did you end up taking time away from the board after that one?

Haha, you remember the video I posted? Mmm...I don't think so because the rest of the winter was busy. But I gave up trying to be a forecaster...I figured if I couldn't provide value beyond hugging the Euro, then I wasn't cut out for it.

[Torch Tiger]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Very possible...I hope not.

I am not saying you or I, but someone's going to get f'n porked with exhaust on either side 3-5" hour rates , wherever those static bands set up.  <970 mb lol and maturing low with h5 south of us doesn't scream widespread 2'

[Ginx snewx]

15 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

I’m just exhausted at this point.

We have alot of experience with Blizzards over the years. Will be cool for younger ones who have not to see it. 

[78Blizzard]

2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

That seems fairly far north. Where does it go from there?

[Baroclinic Zone]

@Ginx snewx

i just peeked at that 21z RAP. Wow. 24-36” here.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Very possible...I hope not.

Like I said this morning. Any east ticks and that’s the difference from this being like Feb 2013 vs Jan 2022. 
 

Kind of waffling between the two now 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

We have alot of experience with Blizzards over the years. Will be cool for younger ones who have not to see it. 

You’re right, I deserve this 

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

That seems fairly far north. Where does it go from there?

Downhill. Don’t do it 

[weathafella]

8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

9 hrs of blizzard conditions. 24 inches I concur

Yeah I couldn’t measure so I let the dog out and noted where the snow come up on her haunches and measured 22”.  I thought it was great imby Ray got bones pretty badly.

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

@Ginx snewx

i just peeked at that 21z RAP. Wow. 24-36” here.

They call me the Rapper

[512high]

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

We have alot of experience with Blizzards over the years. Will be cool for younger ones who have not to see it. 

Good Point, however they may have to put their phones down first!

[ineedsnow]

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

I like the one almost to Nova Scotia already

[weatherwiz]

Ultimately, I would really like to start seeing more signals for a pivot and maintaining of this intense fronto to really get excited and hopeful for widespread 18-24" but its more a quick south to north push and then it kind of fizzles. I think though there are signals which argue for that to occur and I wouldn't totally expect models to accurately handle this right now. But anyways...it is going to be absolutely epic for some hours. 

18z NAM 

18z GFS

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, 512high said:

Good Point, however they may have to put their phones down first!

My 8 year old grandson asked me if the January storm was the most I ever saw   So I explained 78 on the SRI coast.  At the time I thought nothing of it but then realized I had asked my Dad the same thing in January 78 he said no 1960 . 3 weeks later was the Blizzard of 78. Full circle moment ?

[FXWX]

29 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

What your recollection of 1978 compared to this? There are surface maps floating around comparing this to the surface map of 78 with a 1049 high in the same exact spot in Canada and a stronger storm this go around in the same spot.

The comparisons are decent; with the explosive deeping of the 500 mb trough, intense 850 low passing south of SNE a bit further south than in 78, great easterly moisture inflow north of the 850; both have classic "S" shaped 850 isotherms as well as signs slowing down and attempt at capture of surface system.  The sfc layout shows the classic banana shaped high with the surface low embedded same as 78; the 78 high was ~1048 mb, this one is a bit stronger ~ 1051 mb; almost exact locations.  So, overall, similar sfc and upper level layouts; not identical, but pretty dam close.  Sfc and upper level features are a tad further south this time.

 

[Henry's Weather]

28 minutes ago, ma blizzard said:

I feel dirty for posting this but .. 

This… this is my shite right there

[scoob40]

28 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

I thought they said cef only had 13 inches on the news

Never go by CEF snow totals. They’re so out of wack with  other proximity measurements it’s laughable.

[hooralph]

2 hours ago, kdxken said:

Hey how the heck are you! Still down in DC? Still taking pictures?

I'm in NYC. Been here since 2012. And yes. But now my son is picking up the mantle and is fired up for tomorrow.
 

[wokeupthisam]

2 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

I wouldn't be surprised if the GFS was actually a bit too low with QPF, especially along the QPF gradient (like Ray alluded too earlier) but too me it seems the GFS is way too quick in shutting down the CCB. I know the system has occluded but its shutting things down a bit too quickly with 850mb winds coming in at 50-60+ knots. Yeah its more of a northerly component but there is still a moisture fetch from the Atlantic.

Always thought with these doozies the short range models are gonna pick up on the banding signals while the globals paint with a broad brush, time to look at the mesoscale and even then, it comes down to radar / nowcast at go time with these bigguns...

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Ultimately, I would really like to start seeing more signals for a pivot and maintaining of this intense fronto to really get excited and hopeful for widespread 18-24" but its more a quick south to north push and then it kind of fizzles. I think though there are signals which argue for that to occur and I wouldn't totally expect models to accurately handle this right now. But anyways...it is going to be absolutely epic for some hours. 

18z NAM 

18z GFS

Wiz those are all time panels like 6 an hour in convection. Check out the marginal for CT coast can you say 2013 with its 9 per hour band. Yeah that's what those panels remind me of 

[hooralph]

Maynard, MA. 1978. 

But looking to tug it SE it a bit. 

[FXWX]

1 hour ago, codfishsnowman said:

1978 was nothing special in the Springfield area. The initial thump was solid but after that I am pretty sure the valley sucked exhaust for the next 24 hours before maybe a few parting storm snow showers. I think only 12 to 15 inches fell. BDL did a little better and my folks in Bristol CT swore it was close to two feet there. The big difference was all the blowing and drifting snow.

I lived in Bristol in 78... Your parents were correct; tough measurement due to wind, but I posted 22".  Drifting was amazing and town payloaders were used to open our street 3 days later.  And yes, like all of these storms, there were relatively low amounts not terrible far away.  Parts of the Berks recorded only single digit totals. 

[DavisStraight]

21 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

that could even give me a snow day

Aren't you good at both Pits? Pit south better obviously.

[weathafella]

My recollection of ‘78 is being taunted by my friend while I was crying from my home in LA.  First leg of my trip descending into Atlanta.  One more leg and I’ll be home.  As I explained to my wife, I’m not a womanizer, I’m reasonably sober and we’re kind to each other.  I’m running out of time and I’m not missing this one.