“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco

[bristolri_wx]

National Weenie Service high end 10% probability map. (just realized @Baroclinic Zonebeat me to it)

[Greg]

4 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

shuffle has begun, early? Or just some noise, guess ensembles will be a bit more telling....

The Jet streak/confluence strengthened a little this time vs the others on this model output; that's why.

[Torch Tiger]

wow cut 'em back. if that continues a few more cycles it'll be nothing more than a moderate storm here

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Will be a compromise between the two stubborn camps in the end. 

[Henry's Weather]

Yuck

[ScituateMA]

Noticing a bit if a trend. Gradient seems sharper with each run

[ineedsnow]

GFS chasing convection like pacman

[Masswx]

Storm canceled

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, Masswx said:

Storm canceled

Is the mood in the house bad ?

[Chrisrotary12]

Here comes the rug pull. 

[Chrisrotary12]

Coach just sent Lucy into the game. 

[Masswx]

Joking but would appreciate the slow increase in qpf like the storm in January. Would be nice for a weenie euro suite

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Is the mood in the house bad ?

He’s very emotional. 

[Masswx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Is the mood in the house bad ?

Yup

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

GFS chasing convection like pacman

I don't think that's chasing convection there. Just kind of a quick glance but at least one thing it looks like is it isn't as clean with the injection of all the shortwave energy on the backside. 

[MegaMike]

2 minutes ago, Shaun Curry said:

Does this mean that RI gets Jim Cantore on the thundersnow beat?

I could see him going to either Providence, Boston, central NJ, or somewhere along the Cape. I bet they announce the location later tonight.

18z HRRR gives Hartford higher percentages of lightning than Providence... 3-6% from 12am-3am on Monday.

NYC too at 3-7% from 11pm-2am Sunday-Monday.

[Spanks45]

3 minutes ago, Greg said:

The Jet streak/confluence strengthened a little this time vs the others on this model output; that's why.

yeah, just saw that and even at the surface, the heavy banding barely made it past the CT shoreline, 12z had it well inland....

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Masswx said:

Yup

Speak for yourself 

[SouthCoastMA]

Jim C can stay here if he brings me a genny

[nianticct]

Painful reactions to one run! Grab your Bong and it will get better!

[vortex95]

30 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Oh hell yeah!

Bliz of 05 CoastalWx MAN stuff! LOL.

[Damage In Tolland]

Are people really canceling Storm based off op GFS with Mesos ramping up ?

[bristolri_wx]

I wouldn't be too concerned about the GFS unless it goes further SE at 12z:

All the models should have more data soon they are flying though it right now and the mission is still ongoing:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/#AF302-10WSA-TRACK62

[Typhoon Tip]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Are people really canceling Storm based off op GFS with Mesos ramping up ?

paranoid dopa addicts 

[CT Rain]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Are people really canceling Storm based off op GFS with Mesos ramping up ?

Draw the shades.

[MaineJayhawk]

With this system quickly spiraling into irrelevance, it’s time to focus on Wednesday and Friday

[CoastalWx]

May have to lock 21z RAP

[vortex95]

26 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

I don’t know if this qualifies but the Carolinas had a tornado outbreak when we had a huge nor’easter back in March 83

That was 3/27-29/1984.  That storm across much of the South and East Coast was in a class by itself.  963 mb E of the Delmarva and G108mph at Blue Hill.  Paste blizzard here w/ massive tree damage and power outages.

Carolina tor outbreak its worst on record.  One tor was 2.5 mi wide.  A single supercell product 7 F4 tors, the record for most F4s from a single storm.
 

[codfishsnowman]

Well I told my central Ct peeps it looked like a big deal but told them up here I wasn't convinced of more than a respectable snow storm unless we got lucky with banding.

I feel not nearly as excited seeing the Icon and GFS cut back like that ...those aren't little moves for folks on the edge. In fact a few more of those and its a foot of windblown snow on the cape and islands

Gfs and icon big sudden cutbacks, really hope that's a blip

[Prismshine Productions]

RAP cut back too

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