“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Hey guys.  So these are the days that we wait for, sometimes for years.  Good luck down there.  I really have not been paying to much attention as it has comfortably looked like a miss or scrape up here.  Now I'm taking more interest.  I guess my question would be,  looking at the current runs would the defomation band get far enough NW to get me and Brian into the action?  Usually in deep low's the White Mountains to my northeast shadow me.

I'll be lurking and watching.  Oh, 7" powder last night  24F light snow now

Can’t rule some bands out. NAM is slowly weakening on approach (mslp rising) so the banding may spread out a bit as the stacked lows open a bit. It’ll be a nowcast deal.

[moneypitmike]

Get that sucker north even  75 miles snd ill crack s smile

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You start out living in S Wey.. when it’s over your’re in Wey?

I might be at Brett’s house when it’s over.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Still some lighter snows to go over eastern areas but ho-Lee-shit

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I might be at Brett’s house when it’s over.

He may propose to Alison.

[Henry's Weather]

CNE peeps are silently worried due to this run. For canonical status I think we want this H5 closure to be 50-75 miles further north. Don’t really want the stall to be east of Cape May. LI stalls are preferred.

A few ways to get this - stronger omega blocking, further north 50/50 low… my expertise runs out here

[ROOSTA]

Without question a NUKE.

Widespread 2ft. Homogeneous amounts across the board.

[Damage In Tolland]

Who will get 4 feet?!?

[weatherwiz]

there may be a bit of a CT Valley screw zone and unfortunately I would be in that spot. Down into CT it may not be as terrible. 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Who will get 4 feet?!?

I think someone could certainly see 3' 

[dendrite]

3k 10:1

[tiger_deF]

Oh yeah 

[ineedsnow]

RAP was joining the party

 

[wx2fish]

10 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Can’t rule some bands out. NAM is slowly weakening on approach (mslp rising) so the banding may spread out a bit as the stacked lows open a bit. It’ll be a nowcast deal.

Yeah it shoots the mid level lift pretty far north eventually. Most stationary deffy (on this run) is probably back in NY where it pivots 

[SJonesWX]

16 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Still going to need more latitude with this for most of NH and the CRV (outside of CT) I think. 

Buzzkill.

but you’re right, we need this to gain another 50-75 miles of latitude 

[Damage In Tolland]

I’m issuing Blizzicaine warnings 

[Typhoon Tip]

44 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

NAM going nuclear...holy shit. it's happening 

Don't forget ... NW bias   

 (... it's always awesome to find a mouse pellet in your raisin toast, huh )   

hahahaha.    yeah, no... in this situation, like I just wrote about a minute ago, I feel the N-W solutions have some merit.  That's really what it comes down to;  the NAM does ongoing support a N-W bias at this time range, but some situations ...that's an advantage - or can be.   

Case in point, Dec 2005.   Granted there's been some pretty significant model improvements in the last 20 year ( haha), but back in the day ...the globals were all SE of the NAM, even the day before that event.   I recall writing a pretty spot on disco as to why the ETA model was likelier to be ( exceptionally) correct.   It had to do with identify the surface to 800 mb frontal position, along which there was extraordinarily dense thermal packing, making said frontal slope very upright.  This is an environment feebdack that the resolution of the globals of the day... mm probably missed?  But when mid level jet first nosed over that boundary, it was instant bombogen where the UVM was hyper focus and was tapping the improving diffluence as the jet continue to advance.   Set off a host of other feedbacks...it grew so intense there was a tropopausal fold event...and the underside stinger brought 100 mph wind gusts that no one knew were coming.  I didn't even see that...  what an amazing thing that was.  wow.   

Anyway, that's all a fast sloppy write sojourn ... 

In this situation, all the globals as I wrote earlier seem to be biased ( more or less) SE of the best q-g forcing.  This really seems like a situation where the initial low trigger should be closer to the Del Marva stinger, and then hug bit closer where the 500 mb diffluence jet velocity is stronger... then, that parlays, because the storm then captures farther west ...if only 50 miles makes all the difference in some case.  When the two collocate, that proficiency than means even stall possibilities ...all of which would be NW of the 54 hour positions offered up by the global runs overnight.   

christ ..i have stop writing so much... maybe i just grab all these and dump them into a weather diary novel.  that's idea lol 

[DomNH]

17 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Still going to need more latitude with this for most of NH and the CRV (outside of CT) I think. 

Yeah that move due east off the Delmarva vs. a more northeasterly track south of LI isn't ideal. 

[WxWatcher007]

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

there may be a bit of a CT Valley screw zone and unfortunately I would be in that spot. Down into CT it may not be as terrible. 

Definitely some concerns here. Don’t think it’ll be as pronounced as the BOX map though.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Don't forget ... NW bias   

 (... it's always awesome to find a mouse pellet in your raisin toast, huh )   

hahahaha.    yeah, no... in this situation, like I just wrote about a minute ago, I feel the N-W solutions have some merit.  That's really what it comes down two;  the NAM does ongoing support a N-W bias at this time range, which is valid in certain situation. 

Case in point, Dec 2005.   Granted there's been some pretty significant model improvements in the last 20 year ( haha), but back in the day ...the globals were all SE of the NAM, even the day before that event.   I recall writing a pretty spot on disco as to why the ETA model was likelier to be ( exceptionally) correct.   It had to do with identify the surface to 800 mb frontal position, along which there was extraordinary thermal packing, making said frontal slope very upright.  This is an environment feebdack that the resolution of the globals of the day... mm probably missed?  But when mid level jet first nosed over that boundary, it was instant bombogen where the UVM was hyper focus and was tapping the improving diffluence as the jet continue to advance.   Set off a host of other feedbacks...it grew so intense there was a tropopausal fold event...and the underside stinger brought 100 mph wind gusts that no one new was coming.  I didn't even see that...  what an amazing thing that was.  wow.   

Anyway, that's all a fast sloppy write sojourn ... 

In this situation, all the globals as I wrote earlier seem to be biased ( more or less) SE of the best q-g forcing.  This really seems like a situation where the initial low trigger should be closer to the Del Marva stinger, and then hug bit closer where the 500 mb diffluence jet velocity is stronger... then, that parlays, because the storm then captures farther west ...if only 50 miles makes all the difference in some case.  When the to collocate, that proficiency than means even stall possibilities ...all of which would be NW of the 54 hour positions offered up by the global runs overnight.   

christ ..i have stop writing so much... maybe i just grab all these and dump them into a weather diary novel.  that's idea lol 

You've been very spot on in all your analysis and assessments and with projected trends. Excellent stuff as always 

[PowderBeard]

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

3k 10:1

Avy warnings for Blue Hill.

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’m issuing Blizzicaine warnings 

ok Kev Moredamage

[weathergoat]

Any mixing issues SE Connecticut/Southern RI?

[WxWatcher007]

I mean…come on  

[SouthCoastMA]

1 minute ago, weathergoat said:

Any mixing issues SE Connecticut/Southern RI?

No. As much as some want it to happen

[tavwtby]

kinda surprised ALY has yet to issue a warning for at least southern Litchfield cty... looking very likely 12-20 across the state, Blizzard warning and WSW already up from Upton to BOX...

[NoCORH4L]

3 minutes ago, weathergoat said:

Any mixing issues SE Connecticut/Southern RI?

Let's hope so. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

One thing that might limit it as far as comparing to all time greats like 1978, 1888 is the duration.  It’s not a fast mover but it doesn’t appear to stall or do a loop. 
 

That being said, super high impact.  Power outages will be an issue for many

[tavwtby]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I mean…come on  

that is quite sexy right there!

[Typhoon Tip]

27 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Cane gusts back to Albany !

D-drip O.D. here