“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco

[NeonPeon]

4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

they probably want to make sure there's no shift east before making bigger changes

Their justification is as below, and makes sense:

 

 

12z GFS remains the strong outlier when compared to other models and brings coastal storm right over 40/70 benchmark,which if it verifies, would bring widespread heavy snow and strong winds to much of SNE. We`re also still seeing a very large spread in GFS ensemble members and Canadian/ECMWF ensembles as well, so forecast confidence in any particular solution is not very high. GFS solution is not completely supported by other guidance but we have noted more of a NW trend; consensus is for a weaker downstream ridge which results in a slightly farther offshore pass but still brings heavy snow and strong winds to Cape Cod and the Islands and South Coast.

This would also bring accumulating snow to much of SNE, but not the extreme amounts as seen on some model snow maps that have been making the rounds these past few days.

 

Since we are most confident on 6"+ totals on Cape Cod and the South Coast, we will issue a Winter Storm Watch for these areas.

We considered also including more of RI and SE MA given recent trend but decided to hold off for now given spread in ensemble members. Keep in mind if we see continue to see a NW trend in guidance, the Watch will likewise need to be expanded to include more of SNE, at least into more or RI and eastern MA including Providence and Boston. We`re just not quite ready to buy into that just yet.

[dendrite]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

Oh boy oh bly!

6hr increment pbp

 

More confluence at 33 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, NeonPeon said:

Their justification is as below, and makes sense:

 

 

12z GFS remains the strong outlier when compared to other

models and brings coastal storm right over 40/70 benchmark,which if it verifies, would bring widespread heavy snow and strong winds to much of SNE. We`re also still seeing a very large spread in GFS ensemble members and Canadian/ECMWF ensembles as well, so forecast confidence in any particular solution is not very high. GFS solution is not completely supported by other guidance but we have noted more of a NW trend; consensus is for a weaker downstream ridge which results in a slightly farther offshore pass but still brings heavy snow and strong winds to Cape Cod and the Islands and South Coast.

This would also bring accumulating snow to much of SNE, but not the extreme amounts as seen on some model snow maps that have been making the rounds these past few days.

 

Since we are most confident on 6"+ totals on Cape Cod and the South Coast, we will issue a Winter Storm Watch for these areas.

We considered also including more of RI and SE MA given recent trend but decided to hold off for now given spread in ensemble members. Keep in mind if we see continue to see a NW trend in guidance, the Watch will likewise need to be expanded to include more of SNE, at least into more or RI and eastern MA including Providence and Boston. We`re just not quite ready to buy into that just yet.

Very solid. They know. 

[kdxken]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

They may want today’s system to clear first so the multiple headlines don’t cause confusion.

They should link to this thread. Give the general public a popsicle headache.

[ineedsnow]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

More confluence at 33 

everything else looks good except that

[Typhoon Tip]

It may not represent on this cycle ( as I'm sure this post will be ignored - ), but now that we are into the NAM's out solar system reach of this thing's vision, it may at any time come at us with it's typical NW bias.

In this particular leading scenario, any such NW bias will = historically powerful d-drip dosing.  

It is of paramount importance that you not let ... oh fuck. who the hell am I kidding

[SJonesWX]

13 minutes ago, NoCORH4L said:

How is/was that possible? I mean yeah it was a lot of snow, but it was 1978 not 1888. They still had plenty of big trucks with plows, and salt. 

if you weren't around to see it, you wouldn't understand. look through the google machine for pics of rt 128 and all the stranded vehicles

[ma blizzard]

4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

everything else looks good except that

at 42 heights noticeably higher ahead of the S/W at 500 compared to 12z 

[mahk_webstah]

7 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

everything else looks good except that

But for the further north people that might be the most important factor

[JJBASHB]

Ridge axis by the Rockies a shade west or slightly more stout

Edit. Looks about the same by 51 hrs.  Definitely higher heights on the east coast

[dendrite]

Just now, mahk_webstah said:

But for the further north people that might be the most important factor

I’m not worried about it.

[Typhoon Tip]

15 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Very solid. They know. 

Mm... that made more sense as of the 7am ...

I'm willing to call that a little of a conservative bias at this point, if that is still the way they perceive this situation. 

There's still time, anyway, so it's not a knock if they were to wait to pull headline triggers.  But that GFS statement isn't entirely true as of the scalar moment.  There's other guidance that bring goods and wind to an ~ PSM-HFD line, enough so, to justify a Watch spanning the region-->SE.   The super ensemble mean that Megamike supplied few ago isn't just the GFS.   It means a lot of players are in on this thing.

[HoarfrostHubb]

23 minutes ago, NoCORH4L said:

How is/was that possible? I mean yeah it was a lot of snow, but it was 1978 not 1888. They still had plenty of big trucks with plows, and salt. 

You saw what happened in 2007 with 6-8” in the Boston area.  Gridlock.  Plows couldn’t get through.  Everything was jammed.   Now dump another 24”-36” on top of that.   Civilization ground to a halt. 

[FXWX]

16 minutes ago, NoCORH4L said:

How is/was that possible? I mean yeah it was a lot of snow, but it was 1978 not 1888. They still had plenty of big trucks with plows, and salt. 

The onset rates were tremendous!  The winds will high-end, plus the general public was out in mass, and there was a sense by the public that it was being over-blown.  The onset of heavy heavy snow was like a curtain, making travel almost impossible shortly after onset!    There is a couple of great books out there that document the event, plus the Kocin book!  WBZ produced a great documentary about it; probably still out there some where.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

15 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

everything else looks good except that

Beware the East tics towards go time. This looks like it might be a solid event for Eastern peeps though.

[Lucy Pull]

Doesn’t look like the NAM cares about that increased confluence early. Looks like the other changes will make up for it…. 

[dendrite]

It’s lagging that trailing shortwave back a bit

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

You saw what happened in 2007 with 6-8” in the Boston area.  Gridlock.  Plows couldn’t get through.  Everything was jammed.   Now dump another 24”-36” on top of that.   Civilization ground to a halt. 

I was a massage therapist at the Prudential Fitcorp back then. I walked back to Inman square in Cambridge, much faster than MBTA #1 bus would’ve gotten me home. 

[Go Kart Mozart]

Really pumping up heights out ahead.

[weatherwiz]

The NAM is going to go absolutely nuclear. Can see that happening at 60

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 minutes ago, FXWX said:

The onset rates were tremendous!  The winds will high-end, plus the general public was out in mass, and there was a sense by the public that it was being over-blown.  The onset of heavy heavy snow was like a curtain, making travel almost impossible shortly after onset!    There is a couple of great books out there that document the event, plus the Kocin book!  WBZ produced a great documentary about it; probably still out there some where.

We went to school that day only to be sent home early as is barreled in.  Last day I would be in that school building that year since its roof collapsed.   Our VW bus was completely buried in our driveway.  Took us a week to dig out

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

It’s lagging that trailing shortwave back a bit

It’s potent though…dive that in just right and the interior may be happy

[ineedsnow]

woof! 

[dryslot]

The confluence looks to have lifted out, This is really hugging the coast line and going to go nuclear.

[DavisStraight]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

The NAM is going to go absolutely nuclear. Can see that happening at 60

Looks great right now.

[weatherwiz]

Let's Blizzicane it

[40/70 Benchmark]

13" depth here.....10-14" range, 13" is the mode and the number by my station, which is about 50/50 sun/shade.

[CoastalWx]

Nam is incredible in the mid atlantic

[dryslot]

Nammy running a tic or two inside the BM.

[HoarfrostHubb]

NAM further north by quite a bit