Late February/Early March 2026 Mid-Long Range

[cbmclean]

56 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Not sure this is the right thread but...  something to keep in mind for future miller b storms, almost every single one going back to the 80s, tends to trend west up until about 24-36 hours out, and then shifts east and pulls the rug out at the last minute to some extent.  Some didn't do it to us...like Jan 2015 which did that rug pull to NYC, or Feb 89 that rug pulled me in NJ, but they all do it.  Some recent examples for our area are Dec 2000, Boxing day, March 8, 2018, Feb 1 2021, and this week.  Where around 24-48 hours out things were trending west and we got excited and then at the very end reality set in and the storm ended up just a little northeast.  That is the MO.  That happens ALWAYS every single time.  Expect it.  It just is how the models are with these miller b storms.  I don't know why.  I have just observed they tend to be under amplified and too far east around days 4-7 then over correct and get us excited around day 2-3 and then shift back at the last minute and everything shifts 50-75 miles east the final 24 hours.  

That doesn't mean we can't EVERY get a lot of snow from a miller B, but it's super rare and we want it amplifying well west not relying on getting the very back edge of the developing CCB zone because that will almost always end up further east than guidance shows 2-3 days out.  

I have seen some debate if this was a Miller A or B or hybrid or what (which is not unusual).  I'm beginning to wonder if how useful those categories really are, but I was under the impression that one of the hallmarks of a B was a Ohio Valley low that transfers, and I didn't think that there was one of those in this case.  In your perception, what made this storm more "B-ish"?

[cbmclean]

10 minutes ago, wxman said:

You would think that this is the exact type of thing the the AI models would address?  At least where I am the euro AI never really loved the blizzard and while I'm happy with my 16.3" it was not the 2 feet shown on many non-AI models.  In some respects outside the immediate coast up through NYC-BOS the euro AI was closer to reality. 

I had a similar thought about cold chasing moisture, especially east of the Apps and double especially east of the taller Apps down in my neck of the woods.  Every model run in history overestimates how fast the cold gets over the mountains and frequently hallucinates phantom snow as a result.  Since the AIs are trained on historical data one would think that this bias should go poof on an AI model.

[Ji]

Euro has us in 20s monday and tuesday but we need to beef us this POS

[wxman]

6 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

I had a similar thought about cold chasing moisture, especially east of the Apps and double especially east of the taller Apps down in my neck of the woods.  Every model run in history overestimates how fast the cold gets over the mountains and frequently hallucinates phantom snow as a result.  Since the AIs are trained on historical data one would think that this bias should go poof on an AI model.

I guess it depends on the AI training.  In your case the AI models would need to ingest ground truth, which they may or may not.  In PSU's example the AI model should certainly know how the atmospheric features were modeled versus how they evolved in real time.  I don't really know, though.  

[NorthArlington101]

7 minutes ago, Ji said:

Euro has us in 20s monday and tuesday but we need to beef us this POS

Gonna be really funny when this event nobody is paying attention to outdoes Sunday's storm

[blizzardmeiser]

13 minutes ago, Ji said:

Euro has us in 20s monday and tuesday but we need to beef us this POS

What are JB's thoughts?  He nailed the last storm!

[Ji]

1 minute ago, blizzardmeiser said:

What are JB's thoughts?  He nailed the last storm!

not sure but he is calling for a severe winter weather window and a white easter again for the 23rd straight year for late March/early April! @psuhoffman

[blizzardmeiser]

another daffodil destroyer and crocus crusher?  One of these years he will be right.

[stormtracker]

27 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Gonna be really funny when this event nobody is paying attention to outdoes Sunday's storm

I'm def more excited about this one than Sunday's storm.  But for obvious reasons.   What did the clown maps have?

[Eskimo Joe]

Where was this at the end of January

 

 

[NorthArlington101]

10 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I'm def more excited about this one than Sunday's storm.  But for obvious reasons.   What did the clown maps have?

Big 3 all show something:

[mitchnick]

10 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Big 3 all show something:

Probably the best consensus at this range all season for at least a measurable event+.