Late February/Early March 2026 Mid-Long Range

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Quasievil said:

I will not let these models pull me back in again, I will not let these models pull me back in again.

Damn it.

Welcome back!

[mitchnick]

Fwiw, 6z Icon now has the low at 120hrs on the map unlike 0z that lost it to out to see. It's weak, but not too different than the 6z Euro. 

[Weather Will]

At about 5 days out, want to see some globals showing a big hit.  Nice to see more than one model suite with big hits.  GEFS is still not great; let's see what EPS shows.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

One thing I will note is the that right now nothing is showing our typical miller b fail scenario, the more dud runs are south, not north, which I think is good.  If the models were showing us getting skipped north every other run I’d be mad nervous. 

[Quasievil]

1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

One thing I will note is the that right now nothing is showing our typical miller b fail scenario, the more dud runs are south, not north, which I think is good.  If the models were showing us getting skipped north every other run I’d be mad nervous. 

It’s early, give it time. The models this winter have struggled, especially in the medium range.

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z GEFS actually is an improvement over 0Z looking at pressure locations.

[dailylurker]

1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

One thing I will note is the that right now nothing is showing our typical miller b fail scenario, the more dud runs are south, not north, which I think is good.  If the models were showing us getting skipped north every other run I’d be mad nervous. 

I was just thinking that exact thought. This might be a legit threat. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

3 minutes ago, Quasievil said:

It’s early, give it time. The models this winter have struggled, especially in the medium range.

Yeah of course that could be the final outcome, but it’s just not to see the ops advertising that. 

[TSSN+]

The start of something? 

[Weather Will]

WB AI GEFS for 1pm and 7pm Sunday.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, Weather Will said:

WB AI GEFS for 1pm and 7pm Sunday.

Damn that looks fantastic.  Soooo hard not to get roped in with these looks lol.  Oh well may as well push all the chips in because this is probably our last big chance anyway.  If it fails we can track the nice sustained warm up for spring. 

[LeesburgWx]

2 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Damn that looks fantastic.  Soooo hard not to get roped in with these looks lol.  Oh well may as well push all the chips in because this is probably our last big chance anyway.  If it fails we can track the nice sustained warm up for spring. 

Exactly, after this, it's basically March and we know what that means. Time to go all-in if you have not pushed all of your chips in yet.

[psuhoffman]

@mitchnick  @Ji  @stormtracker

a random thought about the AIFS and all guidance in general. 
 

Yes the AIFS will still bounce around at range with details. Exact track. Intensity. It’s not a miracle. It’s performing better than everything else. Take that fwiw. 
 

However, over the last 72 hours the thing it keeps bouncing back to is a hecs lol. It goes one way or another but it’s now spit out 5 hecs runs over 72 hours. This is the default it keeps coming back too. That’s important. It’s not some random fluke run. It’s shown up over and over. Doesn’t mean it’s the only solution. But it’s not a crazy outlier permutation it’s a real possibility or at least AIFS things so. 
 

In general this is true also. Maybe not hecs but secs/MECS the guidance bounces bit keeps coming back to snow!  There was only one other time this winter when the preponderance of evidence was for a storm. Jan 25. All the others we were rooting for the long shot permutations not the most likely. Some were decent shots. 30% maybe 40% but none had a preponderance suggesting yes this is happening. 
 

Thats it. That’s the observation. Doesn’t mean we snow. I do think this is our best shot of the season other than Jan 25 from 5 days out. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

27 minutes ago, Ji said:

Thats enough of a shift for me from this stubborn model. Guys....

[WxUSAF]

18 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

One thing I will note is the that right now nothing is showing our typical miller b fail scenario, the more dud runs are south, not north, which I think is good.  If the models were showing us getting skipped north every other run I’d be mad nervous. 

 

15 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

I was just thinking that exact thought. This might be a legit threat. 

This is definitely a legit threat. Timing during the week is similar to Jan 25 (Sunday start time plus or minus 12-18 hours). But I’ll note that for Jan 25, we also had pretty good consensus broadly for a storm on Tuesday. Wednesday 0z I think was when things jumped north and started showing the sleet mix. But they were pretty locked in after that point outside of some windshield wiper action on details.

[Ji]

[mention=821]mitchnick[/mention]  [mention=514]Ji[/mention]  [mention=9]stormtracker[/mention]
a random thought about the AIFS and all guidance in general. 
 
Yes the AIFS will still bounce around at range with details. Exact track. Intensity. It’s not a miracle. It’s performing better than everything else. Take that fwiw. 
 
However, over the last 72 hours the thing it keeps bouncing back to is a hecs lol. It goes one way or another but it’s now spit out 5 hecs runs over 72 hours. This is the default it keeps coming back too. That’s important. It’s not some random fluke run. It’s shown up over and over. Doesn’t mean it’s the only solution. But it’s not a crazy outlier permutation it’s a real possibility or at least AIFS things so. 
 
In general this is true also. Maybe not hecs but secs/MECS the guidance bounces bit keeps coming back to snow!  There was only one other time this winter when the preponderance of evidence was for a storm. Jan 25. All the others we were rooting for the long shot permutations not the most likely. Some were decent shots. 30% maybe 40% but none had a preponderance suggesting yes this is happening. 
 
Thats it. That’s the observation. Doesn’t mean we snow. I do think this is our best shot of the season other than Jan 25 from 5 days out. 

We will know soon. The Ai has our energy hitting California in 54 hours. It’s also moving the junk from Friday east a lot faster. The storm is Sunday but the next 48 hours is make or break imo

[mitchnick]

Eps snowfall responded from 0z too.

[stormtracker]

2 hours ago, GreyHat said:

Thanks for thinking of me. But been screwed last time you all saw the digital snow. Turned out to be rain. I said earlier wait till Friday and I would believe it otherwise it's a nice rain event. 

Same person with a different screen name doesn’t really help.  

[mappy]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Same person with a different screen name doesn’t really help.  

Temu Washington and Madison?

[stormy]

10 hours ago, WesternFringe said:

A winner for whom?  You and I get zero snow in Augusta County.

yeah!  First impressions are not always lasting impressions.

It was suppressed at 114 but the cold press lagged allowing too much energy to scoot up the wov

This morning at 06z that primary over at Charleston need to be down at Charlotte.

The AI deterministic really slams us as well as the GEM.  They must have tweaked the AI Ensemble.

Finally, the poor old timey EURO really can't find the storm.

 

[LeesburgWx]

6 minutes ago, stormy said:

yeah!  First impressions are not always lasting impressions.

It was suppressed at 114 but the cold press lagged allowing too much energy to scoot up the wov

This morning at 06z that primary over at Charleston need to be down at Charlotte.

The AI deterministic really slams us as well as the GEM.  They must have tweaked the AI Ensemble.

Finally, the poor old timey EURO really can't find the storm.

 

Thanks for the Cliff Notes

[ravensrule]

1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said:

Thanks for the Cliff Notes

I wanted to jump off a cliff after reading his notes. 

[MillvilleWx]

On the winter desk 6 of the next 7 days. Hopefully I can bring us home 

[Terpeast]

Wednesday is only tomorrow. If these runs hold through 12z tomorrow, then it's game on for tracking. We haven't had much luck with tracking threats as not many came to fruition except the early December overperformer and Jan 25. Hope we can turn that luck around.

[CAPE]

Latest Natty Blend looks solid. And posting snow maps is now somewhat useful as we are within a week and the preponderance of guidance indicates a legit threat.

 

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z EURO AI

 This WB 6Z Euro AI op run based on 10:1 has 19” at DC! Of course the 10:1 is way overdone because it has temps 33-35 for the first half of the storm. And the WB Euro AIFS has issues as many of us know with too high snowfall in general.

 However, the WB 0Z CMC and 6Z GFS do have a big hit per Kuchera of 9”! That’s probably a more realistic scenario for the upside potential imho. If DC were to get 9”, it would be their biggest since the 10.3” of 1/12-14/2019!

[North Balti Zen]

48 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

On the winter desk 6 of the next 7 days. Hopefully I can bring us home 

Extreme Airplane voice: "Just want to tell you good luck, we are all counting on you"

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

6 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 This WB 6Z Euro AI op run based on 10:1 has 19” at DC! Of course the 10:1 is way overdone because it has temps 33-35 for the first half of the storm. And the WB Euro AIFS has issues as many of us know with too high snowfall in general.

 However, the WB 0Z CMC and 6Z GFS do have a big hit per Kuchera of 9”! That’s probably a more realistic scenario for the upside potential imho. If DC were to get 9”, it would be their biggest since the 10.3” of 1/12-14/2019!

I think if the Euro AI has the right idea (big if of course) we are going to have crashing 850s and really good ratios for the CCB.  Surface temps will cooperate with that storm position in February.