2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[Chinook]

crazy global temp anomaly

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'm not a huge SAI guy, but I heard both SCE and SAI are at record levels....noteworthy, anyway if true. 

[GaWx]

 The Arctic N of 80N 2m anomalies have been back to their typical autumn warmer than 1958-2002 averages after a short dip to just BN at the end of Sept:

[EasternLI]

00Z EPS now has all members, 100% with reversals. GEFS still sitting around 70% AI ENS climbing after not being interested, close to 80% now, but I don't know how well that does with events like this either.

 

[bluewave]

The lag interval for surface effects from minor and major stratospheric warming events can be quite variable. We had a minor warming event in late December 1997 into early January 1998 and a strong Greenland blocking pattern emerged in January. But since the Pacific vortex was displaced so far to the east, it resulted in a very warm pattern over North America. 

 

[MJO812]

Latest Euro has more weakening of the PV than past runs.

[yoda]

@40/70 Benchmark CWG call for DC region for winter 

8 hours ago, bncho said:

i paid 8 dollars for this shit

 

[Typhoon Tip]

I'm not seeing the complete suite off the Euro cluster ... but, the GEFs I've always used do not indicate an SSW...

There's some wild confusion going on, as some folks among this social media, and outside of it, are seemingly not even aware of their confusion: appears just just wrongly attributable in what is going on....

First of all, warm thermal events pop off in the PV/stratospheric altitudes, all the time.  Seldom are they down propagators after the fact, a key behavioral component in the Sudden Stratospheric Warming defined phenomenon.

The modeling presentation I've found at https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/   (NCEP/GFS Analyses and Forecasts)  provides a means ( though could be improved ) to deduce if in situ outlooks for warming at those respective levels ( y-axis of the above annotated graph) may be destined to downwell.  Note the unit conversion from MB to hPa (millibars to hectopascals) a conversion they do to be consistent with SI units.

When you see an warm sudden introduction in the 1 thru 10 hPa, then look at the 30 --> 50 --> 70 ...etc, out in time. If the pretty red blob of the polar stereographic thermal anomaly layout are then subsequently introducing the warmth, that is at least a 'reasonable' implication of an actual downward welling behavior.  

If you don't see that... it's probably an event that is like this...

Ie., no propagation.   Having defined/illustrated these different types of stratospheric warm event basics ... just as a knowledge aspect, there does not appear to be a temperature extreme/amplitude dependency in whether an event is a propagator or not.  As this image above demos, I carefully choose; it shows multiple irrelevant perturbed warm introductions. However, the last in the series there, very late in the spring of 2007, vaguely suggests there was a downward mass propagation.  The key take away is the down ward movement of the temperature (warming) anomaly.  We are thus using the temperature fields to infer wave mechanics taking place that will eventually become important in situ to the stratosphere-troposphere coupled model.  There may be amplitude requirement the physical wave mechanics - intuitively that's no brainer.   A weak downward temperature signal ... prooooobably is indicative of a weak collapsing PV ..which then weakly correlates to AO modality.  

Otherwise, no propagation, no crucially defined SSW event.   

Now, if we want to call any warm protuberance that introduces itself at all ... like those spanning that winter of 2007, as a SSW?  we do so at risk of confusing and conflating the two disparate systemically effective events - like what sounds like is happening now...  

I did go over the modeled GFS hPa levels wrt time ... it appears around 240 hours, there is a moderate 10 hPa warm emergence, but subsequent time intervals at successively lower levels do not present any propagating behavior.  That can change - sure.  We're not excluding the possibility that an actual SSW will happen this year in the unusually early November window.   Just not seeing it right now.

Having said all that... look at the 70 and 100 hPas...  There's something else happening, already, ...partly I suspect is contributing to some folks misconception of what's going on.  There is a coherent warm anomaly that is all but statically occurring in those lower stratospheric levels... That is is not SSW, but... I believe it is related to CC invading the fixed hPa aspect of the monitoring system...  speculation -

 

[forkyfork]

18 hours ago, forkyfork said:

remember in april when you hive members were trying to will this event under +2 because you knew it would be really bad for cold and snow this winter? now it's +3 and you're willing some kind of magic block that will defeat the pacific vortex

 

[GaWx]

47 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm not seeing the complete suite off the Euro cluster ... but, the GEFs I've always used do not indicate an SSW...

There's some wild confusion going on, as some folks among this social media, and outside of it, are seemingly not even aware of their confusion: appears just just wrongly attributable in what is going on....

First of all, warm thermal events pop off in the PV/stratospheric altitudes, all the time.  Seldom are they down propagators after the fact, a key behavioral component in the Sudden Stratospheric Warming defined phenomenon.

The modeling presentation I've found at https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/   (NCEP/GFS Analyses and Forecasts)  provides a means ( though could be improved ) to deduce if in situ outlooks for warming at those respective levels ( y-axis of the above annotated graph) may be destined to downwell.  Note the unit conversion from MB to hPa (millibars to hectopascals) a conversion they do to be consistent with SI units.

When you see an warm sudden introduction in the 1 thru 10 hPa, then look at the 30 --> 50 --> 70 ...etc, out in time. If the pretty red blob of the polar stereographic thermal anomaly layout are then subsequently introducing the warmth, that is at least a 'reasonable' implication of an actual downward welling behavior.  

If you don't see that... it's probably an event that is like this...

Ie., no propagation.   Having defined/illustrated these different types of stratospheric warm event basics ... just as a knowledge aspect, there does not appear to be a temperature extreme/amplitude dependency in whether an event is a propagator or not.  As this image above demos, I carefully choose; it shows multiple irrelevant perturbed warm introductions. However, the last in the series there, very late in the spring of 2007, vaguely suggests there was a downward mass propagation.  The key take away is the down ward movement of the temperature (warming) anomaly.  We are thus using the temperature fields to infer wave mechanics taking place that will eventually become important in situ to the stratosphere-troposphere coupled model.  There may be amplitude requirement the physical wave mechanics - intuitively that's no brainer.   A weak downward temperature signal ... prooooobably is indicative of a weak collapsing PV ..which then weakly correlates to AO modality.  

Otherwise, no propagation, no crucially defined SSW event.   

Now, if we want to call any warm protuberance that introduces itself at all ... like those spanning that winter of 2007, as a SSW?  we do so at risk of confusing and conflating the two disparate systemically effective events - like what sounds like is happening now...  

I did go over the modeled GFS hPa levels wrt time ... it appears around 240 hours, there is a moderate 10 hPa warm emergence, but subsequent time intervals at successively lower levels do not present any propagating behavior.  That can change - sure.  We're not excluding the possibility that an actual SSW will happen this year in the unusually early November window.   Just not seeing it right now.

Having said all that... look at the 70 and 100 hPas...  There's something else happening, already, ...partly I suspect is contributing to some folks misconception of what's going on.  There is a coherent warm anomaly that is all but statically occurring in those lower stratospheric levels... That is is not SSW, but... I believe it is related to CC invading the fixed hPa aspect of the monitoring system...  speculation -

 

John,

 As long as the 10 hPa/60N mean zonal winds reverse (go to <0) in Nov or winter, that event is defined as a major SSW regardless of the degree of actual strat. warming and degree of propagation down into the troposphere, if at all. If it doesn’t drop to <0, the strat warming event is called a minor SSW.

 Despite the reversal or at least near reversal being progged on models, the degree of actual warming at 10 hPa being progged has been tame compared to many other SSWs. So, that could very well be a factor to consider as regards its potential to later significantly disrupt well down into the troposphere. I wonder if that reduces that potential. Opinions?

Check out this GFS prog, for example. The change in the strat. wind pattern at 60N looks quite impressive, but the degree of strat. warming up there doesn’t as there usually are widespread red colors, including dark red, that abruptly move into the area located within 60-90N but in this case the darker reds largely remain in and near Siberia:

[Typhoon Tip]

12 hours ago, Chinook said:

crazy global temp anomaly

Been seeing this a lot in the last decade ...but since 2023, even more, where these "missing man formation" curve peal-aways take place. This tropical curve is exceptionally deviated from the perceived canonical/historic behavior at this point... It seems it should almost have to turn and start going down but the damage is already done.  Not sure if this apart/aspect of El Nino, per se; other "super" Nino years are presented but did not to demo this type of aberrant tropical separation from the pact.   Interesting

[FPizz]

12 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not a huge SAI guy, but I heard both SCE and SAI are at record levels....noteworthy, anyway if true. 

SOI has been + for 5 straight days now I saw

[Typhoon Tip]

41 minutes ago, GaWx said:

John,

 As long as the 10 hPa/60N mean zonal winds reverse (go to <0) in Nov or winter, that event is defined as a major SSW regardless of the degree of actual strat. warming and degree of propagation down into the troposphere, if at all. If it doesn’t drop to <0, the strat warming event is called a minor SSW.

 Despite the reversal or at least near reversal being progged on models, the degree of actual warming at 10 hPa being progged has been rather tame compared to many other SSWs. So, that could very well be a factor to consider as regards its potential to later significantly disrupt well down into the troposphere. I wonder if that reduces that potential. Opinions?

Check out this GFS prog, for example. The strat. winds, themselves, look impressive, but the degree of strat. warming doesn’t:

Yeah, that's why I'm careful to describe the downward propagating, crucially ...highly indicative using the temperature monitoring...

I also am just commenting that perhaps delineating whether that specific behavior is occurring or not, is crucial.   Because the correlation to the AO is very tightly correlated to that phenomenon.    That site, and the information, at both ends that I provided, coherently show that.   If you take those down welling examples, and compare them to historical AO records, you'll see the 20 to 30 day lag rather obviously.  If you do the same with those warm nodes that did not apparently propagate, AO responses are variable and very less correlated. 

I'm also - again - not intending to say this November won't observe a downward inertial displacement, from 10 hPa ..thru the lower pressure coordinates and destined to affect the AO...etc... just that I'm not seeing that type of SSW totality at this time. 

The gist:  What we're getting at here is the well-studied form of stratosphere–troposphere coupling.

The current 10 hPa bloop - at least in the GFS suite I provided ...again, I have not seen the Euro and refuse to pay for it hahahaha - does not appear GFS-destined to be a coupled phenomenon.  

It's not likely to be a deterministic value on the AO and subsequent goodies ...etc... if even registerable at all, unless the coupling model takes place.   Critical distinction being ...inertial displacement at 10 hPa only describes the PV's forced horizontal position at that level, not proof that the same displacement is traveling downward... that has to happen or the coupling won't.

[GaWx]

29 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah, that's why I'm careful to describe the downward propagating, crucially ...highly indicative using the temperature monitoring...

I also am just commenting that perhaps delineating whether that specific behavior is occurring or not, is crucial.   Because the correlation to the AO is very tightly correlated to that phenomenon.    That site, and the information, at both ends that I provided, coherently show that.   If you take those down welling examples, and compare them to historical AO records, you'll see the 20 to 30 day lag rather obviously.  If you do the same with those warm nodes that did not apparently propagate, AO responses are variable and very less correlated. 

I'm also - again - not intending to say this November won't observe a downward inertial displacement, from 10 hPa ..thru the lower pressure coordinates and destined to affect the AO...etc... just that I'm not seeing that type of SSW totality at this time. 

The gist:  What we're getting at here is the well-studied form of stratosphere–troposphere coupling.

The current 10 hPa bloop - at least in the GFS suite I provided ...again, I have not seen the Euro and refuse to pay for it hahahaha - does not appear GFS-destined to be a coupled phenomenon.  

It's not likely to be a deterministic value on the AO and subsequent goodies ...etc... if even registerable at all, unless the coupling model takes place.   Critical distinction being ...inertial displacement at 10 hPa only describes the PV's forced horizontal position at that level, not proof that the same displacement is traveling downward... that has to happen or the coupling won't.

Even if this SSW ends up not propagating downward to a significant degree and thus doesn’t lead to strong -AO/-NAO in Dec, just the fact that this very early SSW is occurring may have implications as to the chance of a subsequent major SSW (i.e., a canary in the coal mine) that actually does downwell significantly and thus leads to a strong -AO/-NAO after that as I think @40/70 Benchmarkhas talked about.

[GaWx]

The comparison of the following GEFS AO progs fits in well with its strong -AO bias the last couple of months:

10/28/26 GEFS run: look at all of the members plunging to sub -1 and even sub -2 during Nov 2-4 with the mean plunging to -1.5 on Nov 3rd:

10/29/26 GEFS run: what happened to the Nov 2-4 members going below -1? There’s only one left and the mean dips down only to -0.6 instead of -1.5 on Nov 3rd. Also, the medium range mean isn’t as -AO as yesterday:

@Typhoon Tip

[Typhoon Tip]

Just now, GaWx said:

Even if this SSW ends up not propagating downward to a significant degree and thus not lead to strong -AO/-NAO in Dec, just the fact that this very early SSW is occurring may have implications as to the chance of a subsequent major SSW (i.e., a canary in the coal mine) that actually does downwell significantly and thus lead to a strong -AO/-NAO after that as I think @40/70 Benchmarkhas talked about.

No personal feel on whether this has any portending value for later in the winter.  Not sure I see how- but that's no refutation! 

I can come up study-able explanation for why a 10hPa warm bloob  ( the official term! ) is taking place, now, that doesn't require any specific special meaning thereafter. 

For one, I've been following this for years ...I've noticed lag correlation.

First,  the Swiss Alps and Urals/ cordillera running N-S between along the Eurasian geographic region, could be instrumental ... about 10 days prior to these warm nodes popping into existence in those higher stratospheric levels. The 10 hPa being one in the 1 thru 30.  

It seems there is a lag correlation, a week to perhaps 10 days after active N-NE cyclone modes. The idea is, these modes inject/enhance warm advection events downs stream across mid and N Europe, prior to the 10 hPa emergence. The conjecture ( less than hypothesis at this time...) is that the geographical barrier the Eurasian cordillera imposes, assists in lifting the warm air - think 'giving it a boost'.

Around the globe over here, over western N/A...we have a similar, though not as abrupt geographic barrier wrt the Rockies orientation ...  impinging Pacific flow as it encroaches from the west. As this air 'back logs' due to fluid pressure it begins to deflect up... in the same way, just not as dramatically...  Coriolis force additionally factors and turns toward the N... That is the reason the base-line mean flow over N/ features the flat ridge in the W with a gentle nadir coming E of ~ 110 W across the continent.   ( as an aside, this is the base-line PNAP, Perennial North American Pattern).  It's a useful knowledge nugget, because not ever +PNAP is really a +PNA.  Nor is a -PNAP part of a long termed -PNA.. it's like any teleconnectors ..they don't always move together.

Anyway, so the Urals and so forth are a younger taller mountain range.  Height being the crucial difference.  The active storm mode  of the N-NE Atlantic sends warm advection/storminess through the central and N Europe. These encounter get deflected N and up over the Eurasian cordillera very proficiently, ... eventually penetrating the "side wall" of the PV. It may take a week to 10 days to do so... If there is a warm anomaly S of the 60 N definition... it may en masse rotated around the hemisphere a couple of time before all this happens.

I have enough to at least correlate and subsequently formulate a hypothesis that connects the N-NE Atlantic storm mode with a lag to the mid stratosphere vortex presentations but ... I'm stuck in a day job like everyone else.

 

 

[snowman19]

Even if this turns into a true SSWE (major or minor) and a wind reversal, it has to downwell into the bottom of the stratosphere and fully couple with the troposphere, otherwise it’s completely useless.

Eric Webb had this to say:

[forkyfork]

rainy coastals instead of cutters 

[GaWx]

11 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Even if this turns into a true SSWE (major or minor) and a wind reversal, it has to downwell into the bottom of the stratosphere and fully couple with the troposphere, otherwise it’s completely useless.

Eric Webb had this to say:
 

Thanks, Adam. Point taken, which @Typhoon Tipand many of us agree with.

 In case you missed it yesterday, Eric also suspects the occurrence of this very early SSW is connected in some way to the very strong and E based Nino:

I have a sneaking suspicion that the extreme eastward shift (& intensity) of this year's El Niño potentially has something to do w/ the unusually early stratospheric warming event that's being forecast.

[snowman19]

The EURO refuses to back down whatsoever. Still insists on a December peak and holds on to the astronomical, record-shattering warmth in regions 1+2, 3 and 3.4



In other non ENSO news, the +QBO has fully downwelled to the bottom of the stratosphere and continues to strengthen. A very strong positive event has developed. And as @LakePaste25 and myself suspected, the rise in the PDO continues….up to -0.72 I still suspect we see it go weak positive by winter

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, GaWx said:

The comparison of the following GEFS AO progs fits in well with the strong -AO bias the last couple of months:

10/28/26 GEFS run: look at all of the members plunging to sub -1 and even sub -2 during Nov 2-4 with the mean plunging to -1.5 on Nov 3rd:

10/29/26 GEFS run: what happened to the Nov 2-4 members going below -1? There’s only one left and the mean dips down only to -0.6 instead of -1.5 on Nov 3rd. Also, the medium range mean isn’t as -AO as yesterday:

@Typhoon Tip

Yeah, I'm not sure it's all that real either... as winter enthusiasts, we would rather not see the cumulative error products for D7 and D10 leads indicating a 2 SD positive busting ..haha.. prooobably's a red flag. 

It could also correct -

[GaWx]

 Whereas the GEFS -AO looks significantly less impressive than yesterday, the +PNA still looks very impressive for at least the 3rd day in a row:

10/27 run:

10/28 run:

 

10/29 run: even a bit more impressive 

 

 Granted, the GEFS has had a +PNA bias averaged out the last 3 months, but the bias has had only ~half the magnitude of its -AO bias, and it has been mainly after day 7. So, perhaps it’s a bit too +PNA late in the run but otherwise likely has the right idea.

 I’ll for now assume it has the right idea for the first half of Nov with a PNA of near or above +1 most of the days. What other Nino first half of Nov had a mainly +PNA that was pretty high?

2014, 2002, 1997, 1987, 1976, 1968, and 1953

[SnowGoose69]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Even if this SSW ends up not propagating downward to a significant degree and thus doesn’t lead to strong -AO/-NAO in Dec, just the fact that this very early SSW is occurring may have implications as to the chance of a subsequent major SSW (i.e., a canary in the coal mine) that actually does downwell significantly and thus leads to a strong -AO/-NAO after that as I think @40/70 Benchmarkhas talked about.

 

It depends WHY its happening though.  Is it a product of the strong El Nino or the location of the anomalies?  If so it probably means another SSW in Jan/Feb is unlikely unless somehow the El Nino is still at very strong magnitude at that time.  But usually by then its weakening fairly quickly.

[LakePaste25]

4 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Whereas the GEFS -AO looks significantly less impressive than yesterday, the +PNA still looks very impressive for at least the 3rd day in a row:

10/27 run:

10/28 run:

 

10/29 run: even a bit more impressive 

 

 Granted, the GEFS has had a +PNA bias averaged out the last 3 months, but the bias has had only ~half the magnitude of its -AO bias, and it has been mainly after day 7. So, perhaps it’s a bit too +PNA late in the run but otherwise likely has the right idea.

 I’ll for now assume it has the right idea for the first half of Nov with a PNA of near or above +1 most of the days. What other Nino Novs had it pretty high?

2014, 2002, 1997, 1987, 1976, 1968, and 1953

PNA probably stays ++ all winter. Remember one of the measuring points lies in the SE US, so the SE trough combined with the GOA low centered just offshore of western Canada will keep it positive. 

[Terpeast]

5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

It depends WHY its happening though.  Is it a product of the strong El Nino or the location of the anomalies?  If so it probably means another SSW in Jan/Feb is unlikely unless somehow the El Nino is still at very strong magnitude at that time.  But usually by then its weakening fairly quickly.

Another possibility is that the stronger mid latitude ridging (which also contributes to the NW Pac marine heat wave) is behind the strat warming. No science behind this, just speculation.

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, LakePaste25 said:

PNA probably stays ++ all winter. Remember one of the measuring points lies in the SE US, so the SE trough combined with the GOA low centered just offshore of western Canada will keep it positive. 

You'd assume based on where the PDO is now and its tendency the last 2 winters from what it WAS on 11/1 to where it translated the remainder of the winter that probably is true.  I don't see the PDO going from -0.7 to -1.6 when the last 2 winters in what was more a colder neutral setup it went towards neutral both times.  

[roardog]

1 hour ago, FPizz said:

SOI has been + for 5 straight days now I saw

I wonder if the recent big jump in Nino 4 anomalies and the +SOI is related. Could easterlies be pulling some of that warm water a little back to the west?

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Another possibility is that the stronger mid latitude ridging (which also contributes to the NW Pac marine heat wave) is behind the strat warming. No science behind this, just speculation.

Yeah I'm liking this idea myself as of late.  The 70 and 100 hPa level anomalies currently observed may be related. 

[SnowGoose69]

In recent weeks we have all seen those posts that most El Ninos in recent times the Nov pattern repeated in December...well yeah, probably not gonna happen this time.  I'd be surprised if the +PNA/-AO/-NAO pattern dominated December in a +3 El Nino.  Obviously the whole PV weakening is what will throw a wrench into the whole history but another case of I think nobody knows what will happen this winter.

[snowman19]

Man, this upcoming WWB for early November looks real impressive on the models. This thing is the energizer bunny in regions 3.4, 3 and 1+2….