2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[LakePaste25]

46 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Traditional ONI: almost +3.5C RONI: +2.9C The EURO has been dead balls accurate with this event. The over +4C peak it shows for December is not only believable, it’s very likely. Also, the subsurface warming continues. My final call is a December peak of +4.0C - +4.1C (traditional ONI) and +3.5C - +3.6C (RONI). I think the subsurface peaks next month at +13C

My peak of +3.2-3.7 RONI and +3.7-4.2 ONI prediction I made a couple of months ago is looking alright. Might have even gone a little too low. 

[soadforecasterx]

 

Based off this chart really looks like we have our best shot at seeing a positive PDO since the 15/16 season

[michsnowfreak]

19 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

CC trolls will disappear if it ever fails....like they did last year.....either that, or have a circle jerk over how warm it was in New Mexico if they can't troll us. " I realize you just had a NESIS 4 event, and a Feb system that rivaled 1978 in SE NE in the midst of your coldest winter in over a decade, but the warmth in New Mexico was more anomalous than the cold in the NE".

Funny thing is it still proves the point that even though the climate is rapidly warming, these patterns remain cyclical and will largely even out over time independent of the background warming. I know there was some talk that we were going to be in the MC for the rest of eternity give or take, but if ya don't know....now ya know.

 

100%. Completely ignoring how weather patterns work because the earth is warming is a complete disservice to meteorology, and most here know that, so the trolls continue to look foolish.

The obsession is strictly over a seasonal (or annual) mean which totally ignores day to day, week to week weather. Why even bother with the hobby then? I just ran the #s out of curiosity, knowing the spell of mild winters we had in the 1930s-50s, and sure enough, Detroit has averaged MORE below zero days in the 2000s, 2010s, and 2020s than in the 1930s, 1940s, or 1950s. Wanna grasp at a straw that the site has changed over the years, then use nearby Ann Arbor. They have been at U of M site unchanged since 1880...and they too saw significantly more below zero days in the 2000s-2020s than the 1930s-1950s.

[FPizz]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

One thing is for sure. These ridiculous, bombastic claims on twitter today that 2009-10 is the best “analog” for this winter are going to go down in flames. That is quite possibly the worst analog in the entire history of mankind. It’s actually laughable and embarrassing that anyone would think that’s a perfect match for this year. Fantasy, cope, deep denial, fake news, delusion and wishcasting at its finest

Who the hell do you follow to see those claims and why do you still follow them?  I haven't seen any of the sort.  I feel like you see it from one person then act like all of twitter is posting that.