The Jan 31 Potential: Stormtracker Failure or 'Tracker Trouncing

[jlewis1111]

2 minutes ago, DaleCityDave said:

There’s nearly four days to go and it’s clear no model is really on to what’s happening!

2 days the event starts fri night sat 

[ravensrule]

18 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

And therein lies the rub.

At your age you still rub?. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

14 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

I’ll buy that

Yeah I think if it looks the same tomorrow then we’re in the “we need a miracle” stage, but for now still in the game.  

[clskinsfan]

1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Yeah I think if it looks the same tomorrow then we’re in the “we need a miracle” stage, but for now still in the game.  

Yard dependent. A lot of us are already in the "need a miracle" stage. I would feel real good if I was on the Eastern Shore right now. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, clskinsfan said:

Yard dependent. A lot of us are already in the "need a miracle" stage. I would feel real good if I was on the Eastern Shore right now. 

Basically you and I think are in the same boat to some extent, we need to hope the GFS is right and then bump it north 50-100 miles.  Maybe that is a miracle I’m asking for lol. 

[Terpeast]

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I said I’d reserve judgement until today. I don’t need to see everything lock in on a big hit today but I need to see it look close enough that the typical small bleed north we see the final 72 hours will be enough.  What we need most at this point is some combo of 3 things. For the upper low to go negative slightly sooner, more separation up top so it can lift north sooner or for the whole thing to simply cut off further north. 

Yeah, I've been tracking storms for this region long enough to never count out a north trend in the last 1-2 days. What keeps me optimistic is the precip shield has been ticking further west all the way across VA in some of the credible models. Otherwise, it could be confined all the way south into eastern NC, at which point I'd have been ready to write this off. It was almost looking that way yesterday, and then it trended west last night into this morning.

[WxUSAF]

33 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s digging and cutting off too far south. Since once it cuts off it’s not going to lift north due to the flow over the top we need it to cut off and track across the NC/VA border not down near SC.  We just need one thing, for that upper low to trend north. 

 

11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I said I’d reserve judgement until today. I don’t need to see everything lock in on a big hit today but I need to see it look close enough that the typical small bleed north we see the final 72 hours will be enough.  What we need most at this point is some combo of 3 things. For the upper low to go negative slightly sooner, more separation up top so it can lift north sooner or for the whole thing to simply cut off further north. 

I’ve been saying this thing screams north trend late. Hasn’t happened yet, but still time for that…

[mitchnick]

12 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

At your age you still rub?. 

Yeah...you still rub me the wrong way though! 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

8 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Yeah, I've been tracking storms for this region long enough to never count out a north trend in the last 1-2 days. What keeps me optimistic is the precip shield has been ticking further west all the way across VA in some of the credible models. Otherwise, it could be confined all the way south into eastern NC, at which point I'd have been ready to write this off. It was almost looking that way yesterday, and then it trended west last night into this morning.

This is what I liked about the EPS this morning, the 90 hour 6-he qpf map has beefier precip further west into southern va and western nc. 

[The Dude]

Interesting snippet from LWX's AFD:

Nothing has changed in terms of the pattern for a storm along
the Eastern Seaboard this wknd. A 50/50 low & -NAO, Idaho Ridge,
blocking over the Hudson Bay, and trough moving into the east
Pac. Couldn`t ask for a better synoptic setup, but the formation
of a storm remains in the details of this highly sensitive
pattern.

Latest guidance does reveal northern stream energy is a little
stronger and further west/slower. Therefore, eventual ULL is
slower to push eastward and slightly further west. This has
resulted in a slight shift west in recent storm tracks. Will
have to continue to monitor if this is a trend or noise.

While the ceiling is certainly high for this storm, there is
equally if not higher odds it just skirts out to sea. Future
runs will have to be seen if this is a trend or noise. How the
TPV evolves will be one of the biggest factors on if this storm
comes to fruition or not and impacts land. TPVs are notoriously
not modeled well given the source location with limited UA data.
Therefore, expect fluctuations over the next day or so until
the pattern is better sampled as associated energy is onshore
across the western US.

[MN Transplant]

9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

 

I’ve been saying this thing screams north trend late. Hasn’t happened yet, but still time for that…

I'd be more inclined to think there is a N shift late if we had already started a trend in that direction.  But we aren't seeing that.  GFS, GFSAI and AIFS are rock solid for a 500 pass through SC.  The Euro and GDPS dipped even further to Savannah.

[LordBaltimore]

Hoping the precip shield extent is being incorrectly modeled and we can at least cash in on a 2-4" type deal. Morning runs look like a close scrape so we could still cash in if that's the case

[Solution Man]

10 minutes ago, The Dude said:

Interesting snippet from LWX's AFD:

Nothing has changed in terms of the pattern for a storm along
the Eastern Seaboard this wknd. A 50/50 low & -NAO, Idaho Ridge,
blocking over the Hudson Bay, and trough moving into the east
Pac. Couldn`t ask for a better synoptic setup, but the formation
of a storm remains in the details of this highly sensitive
pattern.

Latest guidance does reveal northern stream energy is a little
stronger and further west/slower. Therefore, eventual ULL is
slower to push eastward and slightly further west. This has
resulted in a slight shift west in recent storm tracks. Will
have to continue to monitor if this is a trend or noise.

While the ceiling is certainly high for this storm, there is
equally if not higher odds it just skirts out to sea. Future
runs will have to be seen if this is a trend or noise. How the
TPV evolves will be one of the biggest factors on if this storm
comes to fruition or not and impacts land. TPVs are notoriously
not modeled well given the source location with limited UA data.
Therefore, expect fluctuations over the next day or so until
the pattern is better sampled as associated energy is onshore
across the western US.

Thanks, this answers my earlier question 

[WxUSAF]

10 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

I'd be more inclined to think there is a N shift late if we had already started a trend in that direction.  But we aren't seeing that.  GFS, GFSAI and AIFS are rock solid for a 500 pass through SC.  The Euro and GDPS dipped even further to Savannah.

Yeah, agreed.  I thought we'd start seeing this tick north by now.  We'll see. 

[osfan24]

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z EPS compared to 0Z.

I still say this is exactly what I picture for a Niña.

[clskinsfan]

4 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

I still say this is exactly what I picture for a Niña.

Whether it's a NIna thing or not. It definitely matches up with what has been happening the past 5 years. As far as areas threatened.

[BristowWx]

12 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Thanks, this answers my earlier question 

Our location is sooo close to something or nothing.  Gotta stay vested at least until Saturday.  

[ecrugger]

Ok, I need someone to make a case for me explaining why I'm not going to get at least 6 inches of snow in Chesapeake/Virginia Beach.

[frd]

Jim Cantore@JimCantore

·

38m

 

 

An east coast storm will evolve over the weekend as jet streams phase together to create very deep low pressure off the east coast.

 

This is a whole different animal than the last storm, but COASTAL IMPACTS like COASTAL FLOODING, OVERWASH, and BLIZZARD are all still in play especially the 757 and eastern NC as well as Cape Cod and the Islands.

 

At this time it appears most of the worst impacts could be east of i95.

 

This does not mean there won't be snow in parts of the southeast as the upper parts of the storm create lift and pump out lighter snows across the Mid-South and the Mid-Atlantic. Even some areas that are dealing with crippling ICE and power outages can see some SNOW. Various models still have a variety of solutions so there is still a lot of fine tuning to go.

 

All these low positions below are for 12z (7am) Sunday morning.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[EastCoast NPZ]

52 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Yard dependent. A lot of us are already in the "need a miracle" stage. I would feel real good if I was on the Eastern Shore right now. 

For you, Aldie, and me....

 

[Solution Man]

6 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Our location is sooo close to something or nothing.  Gotta stay vested at least until Saturday.  

Perhaps we see some north movement in 12z suite today. I have to take my wife to Duke for treatment Sunday. Gotta figure out what day we will go.

[wawarriors4]

11 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Our location is sooo close to something or nothing.  Gotta stay vested at least until Saturday.  

No kidding, will keep eyes on this til the end.

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Perhaps we see some north movement in 12z suite today. I have to take my wife to Duke for treatment Sunday. Gotta figure out what day we will go.

Yeah, I'm looking for at least a small tick north across more 12z models, not just the GFS/GEFS. If that happens, then it's game on. If not, well....

[BristowWx]

Just now, wawarriors4 said:

No kidding, will keep eyes on this til the end.

I should have picked Hartwood when I had the chance 25 years ago.  But I needed a better commute...and look at me now.  Wishing I was in Hartwood.  Seriously it could come down to 10s of miles.  I've seen it happen where the snow line approaches and collapses south.  But I am pulling for you.  At least you know if I am snowing then you are.  Can't say the same for me this go around.  

[Solution Man]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Yeah, I'm looking for at least a small tick north across more 12z models, not just the GFS/GEFS. If that happens, then it's game on. If not, well....

Moving day!

[TSSN+]

I asked ChatGPT why DC sucks at getting snow. The bottom part had me rolling. 

Short answer: DC lives in meteorological heartbreak zone.
Longer, funnier answer:

1. It’s right on the rain–snow knife edge
DC winters hover around 30–35°F. That’s the danger zone where a storm can be this close to snow… then a whisper of warm air turns it into cold rain or slush sadness.

2. The ocean keeps messing things up
The Atlantic acts like a space heater. Coastal storms pull in milder air off the water, which warms DC just enough to ruin snow totals. Inland places (PA, upstate NY) don’t get betrayed like this.

3. Warm air sneaks in above your head
Even when it’s cold at the surface, DC often gets a warm layer a few thousand feet up. Snowflakes fall, melt mid-air, and arrive as rain. Classic fake-out.

4. The jet stream rarely commits
For big snow, DC needs the jet stream to dip just right. Usually it’s either too far north (cold but dry) or too far south (wet but warm). Timing has to be perfect—like parallel parking during an earthquake.

5. Geography = no elevation, no help
DC is flat and low. Elevation helps air stay colder. That’s why western MD and WV get dumped on while DC gets… vibes.

6. Climate change is making the curse worse
Winters are warmer overall, so marginal storms that used to snow now rain. The big blizzards still happen—but less often and with more emotional damage.

In summary:
DC isn’t bad at snow.
It’s just exceptionally good at almost snow.

Every winter is a buildup → hype → betrayal → memes → repeat. 

[LP08]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Yeah, I'm looking for at least a small tick north across more 12z models, not just the GFS/GEFS. If that happens, then it's game on. If not, well....

Lets try and get the H5 cutoff from diving into the extreme SE and keep it moving across NC at least.  I would feel more confident then. Lots of vorts flying around through Canada helping supress that feature on various models.

[nw baltimore wx]

9 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

For you, Aldie, and me....

 

Every time I see this I think of Wacky Packages from the 70’s. 

[wawarriors4]

3 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I should have picked Hartwood when I had the chance 25 years ago.  But I needed a better commute...and look at me now.  Wishing I was in Hartwood.  Seriously it could come down to 10s of miles.  I've seen it happen where the snow line approaches and collapses south.  But I am pulling for you.  At least you know if I am snowing then you are.  Can't say the same for me this go around.  

I feel like there will be snow in the air on Saturday/Sunday at some point around here. How much, haven’t got a clue.

[GreyHat]

Off topic, how cold is it? This is the up in the inlet at Johnathan Landing Magnolia Delaware. No boats going out for awhile.