jlewis1111 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 2 minutes ago, DaleCityDave said: There’s nearly four days to go and it’s clear no model is really on to what’s happening! 2 days the event starts fri night sat 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 18 minutes ago, mitchnick said: And therein lies the rub. At your age you still rub?. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 14 minutes ago, Solution Man said: I’ll buy that Yeah I think if it looks the same tomorrow then we’re in the “we need a miracle” stage, but for now still in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Yeah I think if it looks the same tomorrow then we’re in the “we need a miracle” stage, but for now still in the game. Yard dependent. A lot of us are already in the "need a miracle" stage. I would feel real good if I was on the Eastern Shore right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Just now, clskinsfan said: Yard dependent. A lot of us are already in the "need a miracle" stage. I would feel real good if I was on the Eastern Shore right now. Basically you and I think are in the same boat to some extent, we need to hope the GFS is right and then bump it north 50-100 miles. Maybe that is a miracle I’m asking for lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I said I’d reserve judgement until today. I don’t need to see everything lock in on a big hit today but I need to see it look close enough that the typical small bleed north we see the final 72 hours will be enough. What we need most at this point is some combo of 3 things. For the upper low to go negative slightly sooner, more separation up top so it can lift north sooner or for the whole thing to simply cut off further north. Yeah, I've been tracking storms for this region long enough to never count out a north trend in the last 1-2 days. What keeps me optimistic is the precip shield has been ticking further west all the way across VA in some of the credible models. Otherwise, it could be confined all the way south into eastern NC, at which point I'd have been ready to write this off. It was almost looking that way yesterday, and then it trended west last night into this morning. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 33 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It’s digging and cutting off too far south. Since once it cuts off it’s not going to lift north due to the flow over the top we need it to cut off and track across the NC/VA border not down near SC. We just need one thing, for that upper low to trend north. 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I said I’d reserve judgement until today. I don’t need to see everything lock in on a big hit today but I need to see it look close enough that the typical small bleed north we see the final 72 hours will be enough. What we need most at this point is some combo of 3 things. For the upper low to go negative slightly sooner, more separation up top so it can lift north sooner or for the whole thing to simply cut off further north. I’ve been saying this thing screams north trend late. Hasn’t happened yet, but still time for that… 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 12 minutes ago, ravensrule said: At your age you still rub?. Yeah...you still rub me the wrong way though! 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 8 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Yeah, I've been tracking storms for this region long enough to never count out a north trend in the last 1-2 days. What keeps me optimistic is the precip shield has been ticking further west all the way across VA in some of the credible models. Otherwise, it could be confined all the way south into eastern NC, at which point I'd have been ready to write this off. It was almost looking that way yesterday, and then it trended west last night into this morning. This is what I liked about the EPS this morning, the 90 hour 6-he qpf map has beefier precip further west into southern va and western nc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Interesting snippet from LWX's AFD: Nothing has changed in terms of the pattern for a storm along the Eastern Seaboard this wknd. A 50/50 low & -NAO, Idaho Ridge, blocking over the Hudson Bay, and trough moving into the east Pac. Couldn`t ask for a better synoptic setup, but the formation of a storm remains in the details of this highly sensitive pattern. Latest guidance does reveal northern stream energy is a little stronger and further west/slower. Therefore, eventual ULL is slower to push eastward and slightly further west. This has resulted in a slight shift west in recent storm tracks. Will have to continue to monitor if this is a trend or noise. While the ceiling is certainly high for this storm, there is equally if not higher odds it just skirts out to sea. Future runs will have to be seen if this is a trend or noise. How the TPV evolves will be one of the biggest factors on if this storm comes to fruition or not and impacts land. TPVs are notoriously not modeled well given the source location with limited UA data. Therefore, expect fluctuations over the next day or so until the pattern is better sampled as associated energy is onshore across the western US. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I’ve been saying this thing screams north trend late. Hasn’t happened yet, but still time for that… I'd be more inclined to think there is a N shift late if we had already started a trend in that direction. But we aren't seeing that. GFS, GFSAI and AIFS are rock solid for a 500 pass through SC. The Euro and GDPS dipped even further to Savannah. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LordBaltimore Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Hoping the precip shield extent is being incorrectly modeled and we can at least cash in on a 2-4" type deal. Morning runs look like a close scrape so we could still cash in if that's the case 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 10 minutes ago, The Dude said: Interesting snippet from LWX's AFD: Nothing has changed in terms of the pattern for a storm along the Eastern Seaboard this wknd. A 50/50 low & -NAO, Idaho Ridge, blocking over the Hudson Bay, and trough moving into the east Pac. Couldn`t ask for a better synoptic setup, but the formation of a storm remains in the details of this highly sensitive pattern. Latest guidance does reveal northern stream energy is a little stronger and further west/slower. Therefore, eventual ULL is slower to push eastward and slightly further west. This has resulted in a slight shift west in recent storm tracks. Will have to continue to monitor if this is a trend or noise. While the ceiling is certainly high for this storm, there is equally if not higher odds it just skirts out to sea. Future runs will have to be seen if this is a trend or noise. How the TPV evolves will be one of the biggest factors on if this storm comes to fruition or not and impacts land. TPVs are notoriously not modeled well given the source location with limited UA data. Therefore, expect fluctuations over the next day or so until the pattern is better sampled as associated energy is onshore across the western US. Thanks, this answers my earlier question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 10 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: I'd be more inclined to think there is a N shift late if we had already started a trend in that direction. But we aren't seeing that. GFS, GFSAI and AIFS are rock solid for a 500 pass through SC. The Euro and GDPS dipped even further to Savannah. Yeah, agreed. I thought we'd start seeing this tick north by now. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z EPS compared to 0Z. I still say this is exactly what I picture for a Niña. 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 4 minutes ago, osfan24 said: I still say this is exactly what I picture for a Niña. Whether it's a NIna thing or not. It definitely matches up with what has been happening the past 5 years. As far as areas threatened. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 12 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Thanks, this answers my earlier question Our location is sooo close to something or nothing. Gotta stay vested at least until Saturday. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ecrugger Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Ok, I need someone to make a case for me explaining why I'm not going to get at least 6 inches of snow in Chesapeake/Virginia Beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Jim Cantore@JimCantore · 38m An east coast storm will evolve over the weekend as jet streams phase together to create very deep low pressure off the east coast. This is a whole different animal than the last storm, but COASTAL IMPACTS like COASTAL FLOODING, OVERWASH, and BLIZZARD are all still in play especially the 757 and eastern NC as well as Cape Cod and the Islands. At this time it appears most of the worst impacts could be east of i95. This does not mean there won't be snow in parts of the southeast as the upper parts of the storm create lift and pump out lighter snows across the Mid-South and the Mid-Atlantic. Even some areas that are dealing with crippling ICE and power outages can see some SNOW. Various models still have a variety of solutions so there is still a lot of fine tuning to go. All these low positions below are for 12z (7am) Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 52 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Yard dependent. A lot of us are already in the "need a miracle" stage. I would feel real good if I was on the Eastern Shore right now. For you, Aldie, and me.... 5 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 6 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Our location is sooo close to something or nothing. Gotta stay vested at least until Saturday. Perhaps we see some north movement in 12z suite today. I have to take my wife to Duke for treatment Sunday. Gotta figure out what day we will go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 11 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Our location is sooo close to something or nothing. Gotta stay vested at least until Saturday. No kidding, will keep eyes on this til the end. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 2 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Perhaps we see some north movement in 12z suite today. I have to take my wife to Duke for treatment Sunday. Gotta figure out what day we will go. Yeah, I'm looking for at least a small tick north across more 12z models, not just the GFS/GEFS. If that happens, then it's game on. If not, well.... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Just now, wawarriors4 said: No kidding, will keep eyes on this til the end. I should have picked Hartwood when I had the chance 25 years ago. But I needed a better commute...and look at me now. Wishing I was in Hartwood. Seriously it could come down to 10s of miles. I've seen it happen where the snow line approaches and collapses south. But I am pulling for you. At least you know if I am snowing then you are. Can't say the same for me this go around. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Yeah, I'm looking for at least a small tick north across more 12z models, not just the GFS/GEFS. If that happens, then it's game on. If not, well.... Moving day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 I asked ChatGPT why DC sucks at getting snow. The bottom part had me rolling. Short answer: DC lives in meteorological heartbreak zone. Longer, funnier answer: 1. It’s right on the rain–snow knife edge DC winters hover around 30–35°F. That’s the danger zone where a storm can be this close to snow… then a whisper of warm air turns it into cold rain or slush sadness. 2. The ocean keeps messing things up The Atlantic acts like a space heater. Coastal storms pull in milder air off the water, which warms DC just enough to ruin snow totals. Inland places (PA, upstate NY) don’t get betrayed like this. 3. Warm air sneaks in above your head Even when it’s cold at the surface, DC often gets a warm layer a few thousand feet up. Snowflakes fall, melt mid-air, and arrive as rain. Classic fake-out. 4. The jet stream rarely commits For big snow, DC needs the jet stream to dip just right. Usually it’s either too far north (cold but dry) or too far south (wet but warm). Timing has to be perfect—like parallel parking during an earthquake. 5. Geography = no elevation, no help DC is flat and low. Elevation helps air stay colder. That’s why western MD and WV get dumped on while DC gets… vibes. 6. Climate change is making the curse worse Winters are warmer overall, so marginal storms that used to snow now rain. The big blizzards still happen—but less often and with more emotional damage. In summary: DC isn’t bad at snow. It’s just exceptionally good at almost snow. Every winter is a buildup → hype → betrayal → memes → repeat. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Yeah, I'm looking for at least a small tick north across more 12z models, not just the GFS/GEFS. If that happens, then it's game on. If not, well.... Lets try and get the H5 cutoff from diving into the extreme SE and keep it moving across NC at least. I would feel more confident then. Lots of vorts flying around through Canada helping supress that feature on various models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 9 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: For you, Aldie, and me.... Every time I see this I think of Wacky Packages from the 70’s. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 3 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I should have picked Hartwood when I had the chance 25 years ago. But I needed a better commute...and look at me now. Wishing I was in Hartwood. Seriously it could come down to 10s of miles. I've seen it happen where the snow line approaches and collapses south. But I am pulling for you. At least you know if I am snowing then you are. Can't say the same for me this go around. I feel like there will be snow in the air on Saturday/Sunday at some point around here. How much, haven’t got a clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreyHat Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Off topic, how cold is it? This is the up in the inlet at Johnathan Landing Magnolia Delaware. No boats going out for awhile. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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