February 2026 OBS & Discussion

[MJO812]

No other models are close to the gfs for tomorrow

[SACRUS]

 

EWR: 53.8 (season so far)

 

Rank	Season	Total Snowfall (Inches)
1	1995–1996	78.4"
2	1947–1948	73.0"
3	2010–2011	68.5"
4	1887–1888	65.8"
5	2013–2014	57.3"
6	2025–2026	53.8" (To date)

 

[WestBabylonWeather]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

@WestBabylonWeather

Nice!

[psv88]

Landed at JFk. Looks like it barely snowed. Did 16” of snow melt today?!

[nycwinter]

1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Bismarck and Minneapolis both average about 50 inches for a full season. So neither is that low year to date. Minneapolis may even be above normal. 
 

I'm sure Denver is below. Billings may not be that far off.  

snowfall in  colorado has trended downhill the last 10-15 years..

[psv88]

58” for the season here. Islip cleaning up this season! 
 

This is turning into a high end winter. To me anything 60+ is a big time winter 

[Prue11]

60” here on the season. A winter 

[North and West]

Yeah, looks like the usual warmer spots will make it into the 50s on Saturday.

 

.

[coastalplainsnowman]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

EWR: 53.8 (season so far)

 

Rank	Season	Total Snowfall (Inches)
1	1995–1996	78.4"
2	1947–1948	73.0"
3	2010–2011	68.5"
4	1887–1888	65.8"
5	2013–2014	57.3"
6	2025–2026	53.8" (To date)

 

Thanks for this.  Is it easily known where those other years stood on February 25th?

[EasternLI]

54" on the season after today. I agree with the 60+ number being the bar for an epic winter. That does seem to be the bar set from previous epic winters. 

[TJW014]

Maybe interesting, maybe not interesting, but I love visualizing data. And I'm dabbling in some GIS too.

Been monitoring a section of beach that's seen erosion for years now, yet there's been no effort to restore anything. No more Christmas tree drop offs or even simple snow fence to catch any sand. I've even offered to bring my own posts and fencing. 

Anyway here's a 2 month elevation change. Note the scarping on the dune front, and the added elevation in front. The red blotches on the far right are noise from light reflecting off the water. 

In total (and excluding the outliers) 1400 cu. yds of sand lost in a 4 acre plot of beach

[psv88]

Much more snow left on the ground out in Suffolk than by JFK, where grass was showing in spots. Just shoveled my car out. Pain in the butt 

[CentralNJSnowman]

23 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

Maybe interesting, maybe not interesting, but I love visualizing data. And I'm dabbling in some GIS too.

Been monitoring a section of beach that's seen erosion for years now, yet there's been no effort to restore anything. No more Christmas tree drop offs or even simple snow fence to catch any sand. I've even offered to bring my own posts and fencing. 

Anyway here's a 2 month elevation change. Note the scarping on the dune front, and the added elevation in front. The red blotches on the far right are noise from light reflecting off the water. 

In total (and excluding the outliers) 1400 cu. yds of sand lost in a 4 acre plot of beach

That’s pretty interesting.  There may be some seasonality or other cyclical factors so you may only get a clear picture of the ongoing rate of erosion over a period of multiple years

[TJW014]

12 minutes ago, CentralNJSnowman said:

That’s pretty interesting.  There may be some seasonality or other cyclical factors so you may only get a clear picture of the ongoing rate of erosion over a period of multiple years

Erosion from most of the shore is pretty cyclical. Some erosion during the cold months, then the beach rebuilds in the summer when the waters are calmer. 

Aside from the October Nor'easters and obviously our blizzard on Sunday/Monday (which I didn't notice any further erosion from, and come to another theory of mine) the waters have been relatively quiet

What I have observed is a near constant stream of small, long period (12-14s) swell almost due south all winter. That longshore current combined with the the heavy offshore winds this season make me think a lot of this sand is going north and/or is being stored in the offshore sandbars. 

I really want to get some bathymetry data adjacent from this site specifically, since the sandbar at least from a standing perspective seems much farther offshore. 

I'm going to build a sonar rig to mount on either a paddle board or kayak using a Garmin unit that will data log bathymetry. Just a matter of me finding a day that's pretty flat and being willing to throw the wetsuit on and paddling

I like building and using my own equipment, that way I'm not tied to anybody and it gets done the way I intended it. 

But yes, to answer you, I plan on monitoring this for a few years on a monthly basis. 

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow and Friday will see highs in the upper 30s to near 40° in New York City. A system passing to the south of the region could bring a little snow to the region late tomorrow or tomorrow night. It will turn briefly milder on Saturday to start the weekend. The temperature could approach or reach 50°.

Winter 2025-2026 will is on track to join Winters 1960-1961 and 1977-1978 as the only winters with two or more 10" snowstorms, a seasonal mean temperature of 32° or below and seasonal snowfall of 40.0" or above.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around February 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.32°C. Neutral ENSO conditions have now developed. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring.

The SOI was +5.33 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.296 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 31.3° (4.6° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 4.0° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

Overall, Winter 2025-2026 is on track for a seasonal mean temperature of 31.9°. If a 32.0° or below seasonal mean temperature occurs, that would be the lowest winter mean temperature since Winter 2014-2015 when the mean temperature was 31.7°. Winter 2025-2026 would only become the fourth winter of the 21st century with a mean temperature of 32.0° or below.

[coastalplainsnowman]

8 hours ago, Dark Star said:

A link to the complete blizzard graphically from Jeff Beradelli:

 

https://www.facebook.com/share/v/1BSFjfS38x/

Thanks.  What a great visualization of how the cold air gets dramatically pulled southward once the storm really gets going Sunday afternoon.

[Dark Star]

5 hours ago, nycwinter said:

snowfall in  colorado has trended downhill the last 10-15 years..

Play on words?

[Prue11]

6 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

@WestBabylonWeather

2017-2018 I believe half of that fell in March 

[TriPol]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Tomorrow and Friday will see highs in the upper 30s to near 40° in New York City. A system passing to the south of the region could bring a little snow to the region late tomorrow or tomorrow night. It will turn briefly milder on Saturday to start the weekend. The temperature could approach or reach 50°.

Winter 2025-2026 will is on track to join Winters 1960-1961 and 1977-1978 as the only winters with two or more 10" snowstorms, a seasonal mean temperature of 32° or below and seasonal snowfall of 40.0" or above.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around February 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.32°C. Neutral ENSO conditions have now developed. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring.

The SOI was +5.33 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.296 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 31.3° (4.6° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 4.0° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

Overall, Winter 2025-2026 is on track for a seasonal mean temperature of 31.9°. If a 32.0° or below seasonal mean temperature occurs, that would be the lowest winter mean temperature since Winter 2014-2015 when the mean temperature was 31.7°. Winter 2025-2026 would only become the fourth winter of the 21st century with a mean temperature of 32.0° or below.

Don, when was the last time we had a below normal January AND February during a dying La Nina?

[donsutherland1]

6 hours ago, TriPol said:

Don, when was the last time we had a below normal January AND February during a dying La Nina?

1995-1996.

[bluewave]

Was able to get a photo of the setting sun on the snowpack with the side lighting creating a texture that reminded me of looking down on the clouds during a flight from above. 

 

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

1995-1996.

That year had a snowy March and early April. Of course that entire winter was snowier. 

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

That year had a snowy March and early April. Of course that entire winter was snowier. 

Never ending winter...by April everyone was up in arms after that last snowfall.