February 2026 OBS & Discussion

[bluewave]

24 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

how's GFS so much different than any other model on tomorrow nights sneaky wave? it shows a little snow for us but i'm calling it bs here and it goes south on the next run.

Complete outlier after such an amazing performance on the blizzard a week out

The blizzard was the only time this winter that the GFS did so well. It’s really hard to say why this was the case. But now we are probably back to the regularly scheduled programming of the AIFS or EPS AIFS doing better. It could just be the broken clock analogy with the GFS but we may never know for sure.

[NorthShoreWx]

17 minutes ago, Rjay said:

I like this event.  Most of my snow fell in a very short period of time. 

This is in some ways the most enjoyable snowfall this winter.  The back edge looks close but it's still snowing moderately here.  Good to the last drop.

[liwxfan]

2 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

This is in some ways the most enjoyable snowfall this winter.  The back edge looks close but it's still snowing moderately here.  Good to the last drop.

Seriously is.  

[L.I.Pete]

Pushing 3” in Port Jeff Station. Like a winter wonderland out there.


.

[EasternLI]

What is this madness lol

[SnoSki14]

17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The blizzard was the only time this winter that the GFS did so well. It’s really hard to say why this was the case. But now we are probably back to the regularly scheduled programming of the AIFS or EPS AIFS doing better. It could just be the broken clock analogy with the GFS but we may never know for sure.

Some more support for the early March system than this. 

[bluewave]

3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Some more support for the early March system than this. 

The issue with next Monday is the very strong high pressure forecast to be over the Northeast. So if the system ejects too soon, then it will get suppressed. But a later ejection would probably mean a front end thump to rain or mix potential Tuesday into Wednesday. Plus we could get a suppressed system Monday followed by another with mixing issues Tuesday into Wednesday.

[the_other_guy]

1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

A little concerning when an airport can't tell the difference between heavy snow and fog.

That is a totally normal Metar sir

[FPizz]

Another 1.5" today.  Need 1.5" for 50 on the year here.  I see some reports near Freehold at 65".   What volcano erupted that I missed, lol clown.

[coastalplainsnowman]

Between 1.5 and 2 here.  When we hear / say "it just wants to snow this year" this is a perfect example.  This is the kind of setup that it feels like 9 times out of 10 is rain for the south shore.

I read somewhere that the ocean temps are lower than the norm for this time of year?  Is that true, and if so, maybe that helped here?

 

[winterwarlock]

52 minutes ago, guinness77 said:

I’m sorry to sound like a gigantic weenie but I just pulled 56 continuous hours of work, got to sleep for about 6 and now have to shovel more of this crap? Before I go BACK to work? GTFOH 

let it melt, its going to be 45

[SnoSki14]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The issue with next Monday is the very strong high pressure forecast to be over the Northeast. So if the system ejects too soon, then it will get suppressed. But a later ejection would probably mean a front end thump to rain or mix potential Tuesday into Wednesday. Plus we could get a suppressed system Monday followed by another with mixing issues Tuesday into Wednesday.

Agreed. We had a great winter so anything more is just extra. I think most will be happy with spring like weather 

[Joe4alb]

man its coming down hard in Southampton right now.... geesh

[guinness77]

4 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

let it melt, its going to be 45

Had to make sure the wife got out okay and had to drive my older kid to school, it’s about 10min away. Go to work in about an hour and a half. 
 

it’s finally stopped, I’d say another 3” this morning, was not expecting that. 

[Dark Star]

58 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

where are you on the season?

I haven't been keep track (probably the first time since 1967), but my measurements are usually lower than the surrounding area reports this year...

[IrishRob17]

1 hour ago, NorthShoreWx said:

2.4" new snow as of a few minutes before 9.  The snow was heavy for a while.

Currently S-  32/30

19" at the stake.

Nice, only .6" for me this morning and 8" at the stake.

[WeatherGeek2025]

14 minutes ago, Joe4alb said:

man its coming down hard in Southampton right now.... geesh

how much u got today? 

[hudsonvalley21]

.5 here.

[bluewave]

41 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Another 1.5" today.  Need 1.5" for 50 on the year here.  I see some reports near Freehold at 65".   What volcano erupted that I missed, lol clown.

Dude give it a rest. My comment over a year ago was that it would be challenging for NYC Central Park to measure 50” on the season and not the surrounding locations which are naturally snowier like ISP and EWR. You will notice that I never use the term impossible just how challenging something is given a particular climate state and temperature level.

I am very happy how this winter turned out since it was one of my scenarios which included a rebound off the recent year snowfall lows. It’s funny how you jumped on my post in December which mentioned getting over 4-6” in December is a good sign for winter implying that I didn’t know what I was talking about.

My other observation and outlook issued several years ago is that it would be a challenge to rival snowfall during 1993-1994 in PA, 1995-1996 in our area, 2009-2010 in DC to Philly, 2013-2014 around Detroit and the Midwest, and 2014-2015 around Boston. That was based on the temperature jump following the 2015-2016 super El Niño and smaller areas of cold relative to the past. But I didn’t say impossible.

You will notice that this winter across the CONUS was one of the warmest ones. So the fact that the cold was compressed into the East much more than usual was illustrating the smaller Northern Hemisphere cold pool. The legacy snowfall winters from 1994 to 2015 had a larger area of cold to work with allowing all-time seasonal snowfall highs.

I actually hope that NYC can measure 50” before the season ends. But NYC, LGA, and JFK sit in the heat island and also end up between the best banding during KU events over NNJ and across Long Island. So it’s more challenging for 50” measurements relative to other areas. 

[Brian5671]

58 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The blizzard was the only time this winter that the GFS did so well. It’s really hard to say why this was the case. But now we are probably back to the regularly scheduled programming of the AIFS or EPS AIFS doing better. It could just be the broken clock analogy with the GFS but we may never know for sure.

I always heard the GFS did better with northern stream systems and this was a Miller B so maybe that's part of it?

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

43 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

That is a totally normal Metar sir

It was a joke.

[sussexcountyobs]

After this morning I'm at 60" for season.

[deathstar9]

72” after this one in Sherman CT.  13” to go for the biggest season since 1995-96 (117”).

[SACRUS]

Low of 14 and 1.25 inches of snow now it jumped quickly to 38 / 30.  Clearing out and the melt-off resumes.  Icicles from the house are quite the site / danger.  5 days of 40s and 50s (Saturday) will make a sizeable dent in the snow pack.  Monday- Wed next threat GFS coldest and snowiest.  Much colder in the 3/5 - 3/7 period before moderartion to and perhaps much above in the 3/8 - mid month period.

 

[WeatherGeek2025]

GFS still shows that snow for tomorrow night.

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

GFS still shows that snow for tomorrow night.

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

GFS still shows that snow for tomorrow night.

Its actually tomorrow afternoon while my forecast is 45 and partly sunny

[deathstar9]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

Assuming this includes some of todays clipper for northern areas?

[WeatherGeek2025]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

i don't believe it, i think this will be a disappointing miss to our south and they'll even rain with it

[weatherpruf]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Its actually tomorrow afternoon while my forecast is 45 and partly sunny

wins news met says it is going to miss us to the south.