February 2026 OBS & Discussion

[WeatherGeek2025]

 

 

 

Radar is back just in time for the big blizzy lol

[Prue11]

46 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Looks almost as good when we got it bank in January lol

Fridays rain should put a big dent in it

[MJO812]

Early spring canceled on gfs 

[Prue11]

Crazy melt going on can hear it pinging through all the gutters 

[bluewave]

Even though we rebounded back into the 40s since early February, the warmest departures have been missing miss the Northeast relative to other regions. So the Northeast continues to hold into the colder pocket compared to the rest of the CONUS. The forecast into early March looks like more of the same. 
 

 

[SnoSki14]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Even though we rebounded back into the 40s since early February, the warmest departures have been missing miss the Northeast relative to other regions. So the Northeast continues to hold into the colder pocket compared to the rest of the CONUS. The forecast into early March looks like more of the same. 
 

 

Looks like a holdover from the November pattern that kept us colder all winter. 

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Looks like a holdover from the November pattern that kept us colder all winter. 

This is one of those rare times that the Northeast was colder than other areas instead of warmer. 
 

 

Climatologist49

 

‪@climatologist49.bsky.social‬

 

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Winter-to-date temperature departure from normal. Currently on track to be the 2nd warmest winter on record (1895-present).

 

 

 

[EastonSN+]

If the lag is 5 days the effects of phase 7 will be between the 11th and 15th. 

[steve392]

So gross out.  Bring back those single digit temps! 

[SACRUS]

39 / 26 as the much prolonged snow pack continues to shrink with melting now accelerated.   Tomorrow's rains may due much of the s/c nj and NE places in.   Not much sun the next 4-5 days and the snowpack can be replaced quickly Sun pm and into and through Monday with the storm.  2/23 - beyond looks to ride near / below normal and remain wetter.

 

[wthrmn654]

12 hours ago, Prue11 said:

Fridays rain should put a big dent in it

Well see based on what I'm seeing , it's 4-5 inches thick still as of this morning.  Driving around other then shoulders, areas where wind blew snow away. Everything is covered solidly,  even the ice on water is doing really well, but sloth very obvious reductions in thinner areas or where open water and currents is normal. 

[MANDA]

Not a good look going into Spring.  Extreme drought now showing up in NWNJ.  

We need to start making up deficits in March and April in a big way to reduce the chances of water restrictions this coming late Spring and Summer, especially for NJ.

The lack of widespread moderate to heavy precipitation events over the last 12-18 months has been impressive.

 

[Devidbrain]

It has been fascinating to observe this trend emerge in the month of February, and I believe the extremes really do emphasize the fact that our weather patterns can be quite unpredictable during this time of year. Even the short-term forecasts appear to change slightly from one run to the next, so it is important to keep an open mind when considering the overall forecast. For myself, I always check several forecasts before making travel arrangements so that I can be prepared for changes, and thus far, this has prevented any travel or outings from being ruined by a forecast reversal. When traveling to the airport in unpredictable weather, using a reliable transportation service such as sallimoservice helps to alleviate this concern.

[winterwarlock]

any hints on the warmth for March?

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

any hints on the warmth for March?

Not early March

[Brian5671]

if we get no precip from this storm some places might be on track for a Top 5 driest Feb

[MANDA]

9 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

if we get no precip from this storm some places might be on track for a Top 5 driest Feb

I'm at .31" for February as of this morning.  

Snowfall the season sitting at 36.8".

Precipitation from 11/1 through today: 8.85".

Between 11/1 and today only two precipitation events of 1"+.

12/19 - 12/20 and 1/25 - 1/26.  Nothing else close to a 1" event.

[MANDA]

1 minute ago, MANDA said:

I'm at .31" for February as of this morning.  

Snowfall the season sitting at 36.8".

Precipitation from 11/1 through today: 8.85".

Between 11/1 and today only two precipitation events of 1"+.

12/19 - 12/20 and 1/25 - 1/26.  Nothing else close to a 1" event.

Don, do you have any info on driest February's for NYC climate sites?  Are we close to being in the top 3 to 5 driest assuming not much else falls this month?

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 hour ago, winterwarlock said:

any hints on the warmth for March?

Above temperature departure seems like a lock. We're in a dissipating la nina, and headed into MJO Phase 4 after this weekend's event. Plus, there is very little cold air to work with. These ingredients set the stage for a warm first half of March at least. 

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Above temperature departure seems like a lock. We're in a dissipating la nina, and headed into MJO Phase 4 after this weekend's event. Plus, there is very little cold air to work with. These ingredients set the stage for a warm first half of March at least. 

Not during the first week of March 

[Brian5671]

13 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Not during the first week of March 

Hopefully we torch after that week....it's pretty much over by then anyway

[jm1220]

21 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Above temperature departure seems like a lock. We're in a dissipating la nina, and headed into MJO Phase 4 after this weekend's event. Plus, there is very little cold air to work with. These ingredients set the stage for a warm first half of March at least. 

Awesome. Out with the cold if there won’t be snow. 

[TJW014]

5 hours ago, MANDA said:

Not a good look going into Spring.  Extreme drought now showing up in NWNJ.  

We need to start making up deficits in March and April in a big way to reduce the chances of water restrictions this coming late Spring and Summer, especially for NJ.

The lack of widespread moderate to heavy precipitation events over the last 12-18 months has been impressive.

 

Wildfire season's going to be rough.

[donsutherland1]

Another round of rain will arrive tonight and could continue into early Saturday. Most of the region will see less than 0.50" of rain. Highs will likely reach the lower 40s through Saturday. Another storm could bring some snow to parts of the region Sunday into Monday, but there remains some uncertainty about its track and impacts. 

A significant or major snowstorm remains a low probability, high-impact event. Currently, the GFS is the only operational model supporting this solution. No individual EPS member shows 10" or more snowfall and just 8% have 6" or more.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around February 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.03°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C. Neutral ENSO conditions are now developing. Neutral ENSO conditions will develop during the close of winter.

The SOI was +0.48 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.065 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 99% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 31.8° (4.1° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.5 below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

Overall, Winter 2025-2026 is on track for a seasonal mean temperature of 32.0°, but the forecast development of an AO+ regime could lead to a sufficiently mild outcome to result in a winter mean temperature that exceeds freezing. If a 32.0° or below seasonal mean temperature occurs, that would be the lowest winter mean temperature since Winter 2014-2015 when the mean temperature was 31.7°. Winter 2025-2026 would only become the fourth winter of the 21st century with a mean temperature of 32.0° or below.

 

[SnoSki14]

2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Awesome. Out with the cold if there won’t be snow. 

I don't know about warmth though. Maybe near normal. I think the -WPO type pattern that's been in place since November will want to keep us cold. 

Not cold enough to get snow mind you, but just cold enough to annoy everyone hoping for spring weather 

[hooralph]

The melting has reached a tipping point in Central Park.

[cmillzz]

10 hours ago, bluewave said:

Even though we rebounded back into the 40s since early February, the warmest departures have been missing miss the Northeast relative to other regions. So the Northeast continues to hold into the colder pocket compared to the rest of the CONUS. The forecast into early March looks like more of the same. 
 

 

The warmth has definitely shifted east as the winter has progressed though, with the warmest anomalies now being centered over the Plains/Midwest as of recent. May continue to shift further east as we head deeper into spring. We’ll see.