February 2026 OBS & Discussion

[eduggs]

19 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I respect your precision. I used "explains" in a statistically descriptive sense, not to talk about causation. I could have used more technical language talking about measuring the predictable variation (via linear relationship in this case) between the independent and dependent variable(s).

Keeping in mind that the Board has an audience, some of whom have yet to enter college, such terminology would create more confusion than clarity. Unfortunately, there are trade-offs involved in simplifying discussions.

I thought your language was good. And I'm not trying to talk down - there's plenty I don't know. It's just that at quick glance the plot and summary give the impression that warmer temps cause less snow. 

[eduggs]

The airmass today is actually pretty cold - seasonably cold at least. And yet the warmer spots in the City will tickle 50 and places like Poughkeepsie and Hartford will near or exceed 40. Classic winter feel in the mountains with springtime in the valleys. 

[SACRUS]

47 / 24 here - warmest since Jan 22nd (49)

[Stormlover74]

Beautiful out

[MJO812]

48 right now. Drip drip.

[dWave]

Snow is melting but fairly slow for mostly sunny and 46F day. That sleet content must have some real staying power. 

[Freezing Drizzle]

55 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Here you go:

Winter	State College	Williamsport
1892-93	48.3	N.A.
1893-94	66.4	N.A.
1894-95	54.5	15.3
1895-96	33.7	31.5
1896-97	31.6	26.0
1897-98	40.2	30.8
1898-99	53.5	41.8
1899-00	27.0	15.9
1900-01	39.7	18.9
1901-02	59.9	60.6
1902-03	34.1	40.0
1903-04	39.1	49.7
1904-05	48.0	39.7
1905-06	30.7	30.4
1906-07	57.1	42.6
1907-08	67.8	54.2
1908-09	42.6	39.6
1909-10	66.4	35.6
1910-11	52.0	31.2
1911-12	45.5	35.9
1912-13	20.4	15.2
1913-14	77.4	55.4
1914-15	56.0	45.8
1915-16	48.7	65.0
1916-17	39.4	37.6
1917-18	60.5	62.6
1918-19	18.1	14.3
1919-20	54.2	41.9
1920-21	30.2	27.5
1921-22	41.9	32.8
1922-23	65.9	64.4
1923-24	42.2	27.5
1924-25	41.0	35.0
1925-26	48.3	43.0
1926-27	43.2	40.0
1927-28	64.8	38.1
1928-29	21.6	15.2
1929-30	24.0	18.0
1930-31	30.3	26.0
1931-32	28.4	24.7
1932-33	22.1	19.3
1933-34	31.1	37.0
1934-35	42.7	38.5
1935-36	72.4	48.9
1936-37	31.4	22.7
1937-38	20.2	20.6
1938-39	42.4	36.7
1939-40	49.5	44.3
1940-41	45.9	58.1
1941-42	75.0	39.8
1942-43	42.3	41.1
1943-44	36.4	23.6
1944-45	52.2	46.3
1945-46	29.5	34.3
1946-47	44.7	30.6
1947-48	42.5	40.5
1948-49	28.0	22.3
1949-50	34.5	36.8
1950-51	51.4	43.2
1951-52	41.9	50.2
1952-53	31.7	21.0
1953-54	34.0	28.8
1954-55	26.1	34.0
1955-56	32.7	45.4
1956-57	58.2	50.7
1957-58	57.6	49.1
1958-59	44.7	39.1
1959-60	47.8	51.9
1960-61	91.9	80.2
1961-62	52.2	49.6
1962-63	61.2	55.8
1963-64	78.2	76.2
1964-65	46.2	24.9
1965-66	43.2	39.1
1966-67	59.5	64.7
1967-68	30.9	29.0
1968-69	38.9	18.3
1969-70	89.9	82.6
1970-71	68.4	61.4
1971-72	54.2	59.5
1972-73	31.4	30.6
1973-74	40.9	40.6
1974-75	50.1	38.8
1975-76	42.9	28.9
1976-77	40.8	42.1
1977-78	98.2	83.6
1978-79	39.9	37.3
1979-80	17.9	20.5
1980-81	38.8	41.6
1981-82	69.1	54.5
1982-83	22.6	17.6
1983-84	50.2	40.7
1984-85	31.6	25.0
1985-86	42.3	31.2
1986-87	52.3	53.5
1987-88	39.0	36.8
1988-89	23.7	7.0
1989-90	40.8	31.3
1990-91	34.4	27.9
1991-92	26.9	20.0
1992-93	92.5	55.8
1993-94	109.3	81.2
1994-95	23.5	12.8
1995-96	99.0	85.9
1996-97	41.4	15.2
1997-98	48.2	31.1
1998-99	35.2	37.1
1999-00	19.8	23.1
2000-01	32.1	37.8
2001-02	21.7	19.4
2002-03	83.6	63.9
2003-04	71.4	55.5
2004-05	36.2	38.3
2005-06	26.9	25.0
2006-07	37.6	29.4
2007-08	43.2	31.1
2008-09	26.3	24.2
2009-10	49.1	34.9
2010-11	38.4	45.6
2011-12	19.0	12.3
2012-13	43.6	32.7
2013-14	51.8	45.9
2014-15	52.0	44.4
2015-16	17.9	7.7
2016-17	37.8	41.1
2017-18	34.1	26.8
2018-19	40.1	32.4
2019-20	13.2	13.4
2020-21	45.7	54.3
2021-22	31.9	29.3
2022-23	24.3	19.9
2023-24	22.0	18.1
2024-25	20.5	15.3

This data will keep me busy for a while. lol  I am much obliged. @donsutherland1

[nycwinter]

lovely day today mid 40's this is what many of us needed..

[Freezing Drizzle]

Mount Pocono, Vernon, and some points on Long Island are the only locations shown that are currently in the 30s F.

[steve392]

Gorgeous out at the jersey shore. Asbury park was jumping. 

[psv88]

46 here and no wind. Beautiful mid February day. It’s coming (spring)

[sussexcountyobs]

15 minutes ago, Freezing Drizzle said:

Mount Pocono, Vernon, and some points on Long Island are the only locations shown that are currently in the 30s F.

I'm in Vernon. It's up to 41.4. This is the first real day of some melting with sun out.

[kat5hurricane]

Feeling like spring out there, feels really good, feels rejuvenating. I'll still root for snow when there's something to track but I'm just about done with winter at this point.

[donsutherland1]

Parts of the region saw a dusting of snow overnight. The remainder of the day was mild with the temperature reaching the lower and middle 40s.

Tomorrow will be a bit cooler with highs in the upper 30s. A storm tracking to the south could bring some snowfall to the region tomorrow night into Monday. The steadiest precipitation should pass to the south of New York City. Nevertheless, a 1"-2" snowfall appears likely in and around New York City. Lesser amounts are likely north and west of the City. Parts of central New Jersey and Long Island could see somewhat higher amounts. There remains a risk of lower amounts from New York City northward, as the City will be affected by the northern edge of a fairly weak system.

Following the light snowfall, the remainder of Monday will see highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s. It will then turn milder for the remainder of the week into the beginning of next weekend. Highs will mainly be in the middle 40s. One or two days with highs in the upper 40s to near 50° are possible. 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around February 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter.

The SOI was +20.94 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.006 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 95% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 31.5° (4.4° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.8° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

Overall, Winter 2025-2026 is on track for a seasonal mean temperature of 31.9°. That would be the lowest winter mean temperature since Winter 2014-2015 when the mean temperature was 31.7°. Winter 2025-2026 would only become the fourth winter of the 21st century with a mean temperature of 32.0° or below.

[wthrmn654]

Have yet to hit 40 this month,  39 best I've done lol

[SACRUS]

 

Today's split

 

EWR: 47 / 28 (+3) 
NYC: 46 / 29 (+2)

[Volcanic Winter]

Today was a pack destroyer down here, no doubt. Lucky that it was such a moisture-packed glacier, holding onto about 3-5 inches of actual pack. Piles still going strong, that’s gonna take a lot more to melt through. 9-10 days have been above freezing this month so far, just really excellent retention this year - the deep freeze damn near turned it all to stone.

Back down to 28f. 

[Dark Star]

16 hours ago, dWave said:

Snow is melting but fairly slow for mostly sunny and 46F day. That sleet content must have some real staying power. 

Yes, but the deep freeze afterwards solidified the entire profile into any icy mass.

[snowman19]

If the new 0z EPS is correct, it’s going to get very mild from 2/22 into at least the 1st few days of March. The EPO goes ++

[Brian5671]

47 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If the new 0z EPS is correct, it’s going to get very mild from 2/22 into at least the 1st few days of March. The EPO goes ++

yeah it's definitely winding down....

[wthrmn654]

With the longevity of the snow pack and depth of it,  for those who work outdoors, it's deft starting to get to people mentally... can't do anything really outside here at work and it's getting aggravating.  Can't get ready for summer park season if can't do anything outdoors

[bluewave]

19 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Warming winters coupled with unfavorable patterns/storm tracks are driving State College's seasonal snowfall lower. The coefficient of determination for the winter temperature-seasonal snowfall link is 0.498, meaning that the warming explains almost half of the decline in seasonal snowfall.

Yeah, the deeper consolidated low storm track just east of the APPS was responsible for a significant portion of their heaviest snowstorms and seasons. This storm track has pretty much been missing for the last 20 years. These days the primary lows tend to track to Cleveland or Buffalo with a weaker secondary going to their east. So they get both dry slots and warmth cutting down their snowfall totals.

This is one of the reasons that I have been paying attention to the storm tracks responsible for our seasonal snowfall here. All of our seasons like this one with the coastal areas from EWR to ISP reach 25”+ since the 1990s have featured at least one benchmark NESIS snowstorm with a wide coverage of 10”+ amounts in the Northeast sometimes extending down into the Mid-Atlantic.

Numerous seasons since 2018-2019 have been missing this storm track so most of the recent years have featured below average snowfall. Much of the time has featured the cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm track. Sometimes we get a hugger gradient in the I-78 to I-84 corridor leading to mixing even with the storm to our south. Following the late January benchmark snowstorm, we have reverted back to this common storm track pattern. So we only had one week this season with a dominant Southern Stream capable of producing a widespread 10”+ event near the coast.

My question going forward is can we keep some semblance of this benchmark track active at times for the remainder of the 2020s so we can have more seasons at least approaching average? We had a discussion several months back about 50”+ snowfall seasons at EWR, NYC, LGA, and JFK. I expressed concern that it would be a challenge reaching this level due to how Northern stream dominant our storm tracks have become in addition to how warm the winters have become. Since a prerequisite for these 50”+ seasons especially during La Ninas and also El Ninos has been a winter with an average temperature near 32.0°. Well we finally got our first cold winter  in over a decade. But the Southern stream was only able to become dominant for a week before the Northern Stream started dominating again.

Most of the seasons since the 1990s as cold as this one featured 50”+ like 14-15, 13-14, 10-11 and 09-10. But those seasons allowed the Southern Stream to dominate long enough for widespread 50”+ snows around NYC. My guess is that the 2025-2026 winter could possibly be the only one this coldest for the remainder of the 2020s since cold bas been so scarce since 2015-2016. So its still uncertain whether we can get a near 32° winter to line up with a more relaxed Northern Stream for a 50”+ season. Since these two features have been necessary. 

Past 8 year stretches with snowfall this low like the late 1980s into early 1990s ended with 1993-1994 going 50”+ and 1995-1996 getting 75”+. So the remainder of the 2020s will be an important to see what the snowfall averages will look like heading into the 2030s.

[EastonSN+]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

If the new 0z EPS is correct, it’s going to get very mild from 2/22 into at least the 1st few days of March. The EPO goes ++

Last window will be approx 2nd week of March. Have to get CPK to average snowfall at that point hopefully.

 

[EastonSN+]

[MJO812]

13 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Last window will be approx 2nd week of March. Have to get CPK to average snowfall at that point hopefully.

 

Have to watch for a coastal next week 

[EastonSN+]

Even if CPK were to go snowless the remainder of the winter, this decade would still be ahead of the first 6 winters of the 1970s wrt average annual snow totals and number of above average snowfall winters. 

[SACRUS]

 

37/ 27 clouds from the system that will mainly miss.  Rain already into SPA.  Overall above avg this week but 3 o4 of the 5 days may see some precip.   Perhaps some will get to or exceed 50 Tuesday wit enough afternoon clearing.  Clouds and light rain Wed - Sat.  

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR:  76 (1949)
NYC: 73 (1949)
LGA: 74 (1949)
JFK: 64 (1954)


Lows:

EWR: -7 (1943) 
NYC: -8 (1943)
LGA: -7 (1943)
JFK: 5 (2015)

Historical:

1895 - A big Gulf snowstorm produced six inches at Brownsville TX and Mobile AL, 15 inches at Galveston TX, and 24 inches of snow at Rayne LA in 24 hours. Snow fell at the very mouth of the Mississippi River. Houston TX received 22 inches of snow, and nine inches blanketed New Orleans LA. (David Ludlum)

1936 - The temperature at Parshall ND plunged to 60 degrees below zero to establish a state record. On the 6th of July that same year the temperature at Steele ND hit 121 degrees, also a state record. (David Ludlum)

1982 - An intense cyclone off the Atlantic coast capsized a drilling rig killing 84 persons, and sank a Soviet freighter resulting in 33 more deaths. The cyclone produced 80 mph winds which whipped the water into waves fifty feet high. (David Ludlum)

1987 - A storm crossing the central U.S. produced severe thunderstorms which spawned tornadoes in Louisiana and Mississippi. Tornadoes injured four persons at Pierre Pass LA, three persons at Tangipahoa LA, two persons at Lexie MS and two persons at Nicholson MS. Thunderstorm winds gusting to 100 mph killed one person south of Sulphur LA. Jackson MS was drenched with 1.5 inches of rain in ten minutes. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Low pressure brought heavy snow to parts of Michigan, with eleven inches reported at Rogers City. A cold front crossing the Northern Rockies produced wind gusts to 74 mph at Livingston MT, and created blizzard conditions in Idaho. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Thirty-seven cities in the southeastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. The afternoon high of 80 degrees at Atlanta GA was a February record. Highs of 79 degrees at Chattanooga TN, 84 degrees at Columbia SC and 85 degrees at New Orleans LA equalled February records. (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - Snow, sleet and freezing rain along an arctic cold front prevailed from the north central U.S. to the Northern Atlantic Coast Region. High winds created near blizzard conditions in southern Wyoming, closing Interstate 80, while up to eleven inches of snow fell across central Minnesota.

1990 - Heavy snow also blanketed the Northern Atlantic Coast States, with ten inches reported at Buffalo NY and Mount Washington NH. Freezing rain over southern New England knocked out electricity to more than 10,000 homes in the western suburbs of Boston MA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

2000: Amarillo, Texas, set unusual temperature records today. The high of 82 degrees smashed the old daily high of 76 degrees set in 1921. Likewise, the morning low of 41 degrees broke the old high-low record of 40 degrees, established in 1921.

2004 - Up to 11 inches of snow fell in areas south of Nashville, TN, causing power outages and producing hazardous driving conditions. The Weather Doctor

[SACRUS]

Midway mark 14 days / 2 weeks Dep

 

EWR: -7.6 (0.03)
NYC:  -8.4 (0.008)
LGA: -8.1 (0.003)
JFK: -8.3 (0.01)

[SACRUS]

Wetter week ahead