February 2026 OBS & Discussion

[eduggs]

2 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

March snow has never been long lasting.  If snow is lasting on the ground through roughly mid-March, it is generally because it has built up over the winter.

2018 a wee bit of an exception.  Here is my record:

Great table. Perfectly illustrates March outside the hill country. 4 major snow events got obliterated within days in an exceptionally snowy March. I'm sure it was a lot of fun while the snow was falling. But the vibe is very different in March than it is in early February.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

7 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

March snow has never been long lasting.  If snow is lasting on the ground through roughly mid-March, it is generally because it has built up over the winter.

2018 a wee bit of an exception.  Despite the snowfall, it wasn't especially cold. Here is my record:

 

YYYY	MM	DD	Low	High	Precip	Snowfall	Snow Depth
2018	3	1	38	62
2018	3	2	35	42	1.8	0.1
2018	3	3	35	46	1.23	0.0005
2018	3	4	33	44		0.0005
2018	3	5	32	39	0.0005	0.0005
2018	3	6	29	48		0.0005
2018	3	7	32	36	0.07	8.4
2018	3	8	30	46	1.21	0.7	7
2018	3	9	28	42		0.0005	5
2018	3	10	28	42			4
2018	3	11	28	47			2
2018	3	12	30	43		0.0005	1
2018	3	13	32	39	0.2	5.7	2
2018	3	14	29	44	0.6	0.3	3
2018	3	15	30	49		0.0005	2
2018	3	16	28	40			1
2018	3	17	26	47			T
2018	3	18	26	40			T
2018	3	19	25	44			T
2018	3	20	28	37		0.0005	T
2018	3	21	31	37	0.01	9.1	T
2018	3	22	31	49	1.44	4.5	13
2018	3	23	33	51			7
2018	3	24	33	49			4
2018	3	25	30	43		0.0005	1
2018	3	26	27	48			T
2018	3	27	26	45			T
2018	3	28	37	53			T
2018	3	29	44	52			T
2018	3	30	44	60	0.02
2018	3	31	39	60
2018	4	1	41	62	0.05
2018	4	2	29	42	0.4	6.1	6
2018	4	3	27	43	0.12		2
2018	4	4	40	55	0.23		T

 

 

March is usually two distinct periods. The first two weeks in March in a typical winter you can usually expect to still have snow on the ground here, the last two weeks a different story. If you get it then it's usually not sticking around too long.
 

Of course you do occasionally have months like March 2018 which you alluded to. I had snow on the ground virtually the entire month, but of course from March 2 to April 5 I also had 50 inches of snow, not exactly your typical March.

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

This has been a top 30 coldest 10 day period on Long Island and the coldest since 2017.

Minimum 10-Day Mean Avg Temperature 
for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	8.3	1979-02-09 through 1979-02-18	0
2	8.6	1979-02-10 through 1979-02-19	0
3	9.9	1979-02-11 through 1979-02-20	0
4	10.0	1979-02-08 through 1979-02-17	0
5	11.3	1979-02-07 through 1979-02-16	0
6	11.9	1979-02-06 through 1979-02-15	0
7	12.5	1968-01-04 through 1968-01-13	0
8	12.7	1979-02-12 through 1979-02-21	0
9	12.8	1979-02-05 through 1979-02-14	0
10	13.0	1968-01-02 through 1968-01-11	0
11	13.2	1968-01-03 through 1968-01-12	0
12	13.5	1968-01-05 through 1968-01-14	0
13	14.0	1968-01-01 through 1968-01-10	0
14	15.0	1979-02-04 through 1979-02-13	0
15	15.2	1968-01-06 through 1968-01-15	0
16	15.5	1967-12-31 through 1968-01-09	0
17	15.6	2017-12-29 through 2018-01-07	0
-	15.6	1981-01-04 through 1981-01-13	0
18	15.7	1968-01-07 through 1968-01-16	0
19	16.0	2017-12-28 through 2018-01-06	0
-	16.0	1981-01-03 through 1981-01-12	0
-	16.0	1968-01-08 through 1968-01-17	0
20	16.2	1965-01-11 through 1965-01-20	0
21	16.3	1979-02-13 through 1979-02-22	0
22	16.4	1982-01-10 through 1982-01-19	0
23	16.4	1981-01-05 through 1981-01-14	0
24	16.5	1977-01-12 through 1977-01-21	0
25	16.5	1977-01-15 through 1977-01-24	0
26	16.6	2017-12-30 through 2018-01-08	0
-	16.6	1977-01-13 through 1977-01-22	0
-	16.6	1977-01-11 through 1977-01-20	0
27	16.8	2026-01-24 through 2026-02-02	0

I find this list hard to believe to be correct without any February 2015 dates listed on here.

[NorthShoreWx]

11 minutes ago, eduggs said:

I think the median 30-year March snowfall at NYC is about 1.5". The mean, which is skewed by a few snowier years, is about 4". Certainly areas outside NYC can do better. But March 2018 comes around once every 50 years. Sadly, March 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025 are far more common.

The 2020's might be what is skewing the means. There's more than just cc at work in those awful 2020's March's.  There is also coincidence.  Let's revisit this discussion in 5 years.

[donsutherland1]

24 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I find this list hard to believe to be correct without any February 2015 dates listed on here.

2015 is prominently featured in the coldest 30-day periods in terms of minimum temperatures: 

[bluewave]

22 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I find this list hard to believe to be correct without any February 2015 dates listed on here.

The coldest 10 day stretch back in February 2015 was .1 warmer as that month was more about the longer duration February cold.

16.8	2026-02-02

16.9	2015-02-21

[MarcmmKU]

52 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

The 2020's might be what is skewing the means. There's more than just cc at work in those awful 2020's March's.  There is also coincidence.  Let's revisit this discussion in 5 years.

Unfavorable enso you think? Nina has been so dominant in the 2020s its insane. We need a good string of niños for the latter half of the 20s to avoid the decade being another disaster like the 80s or worse.

[NorthShoreWx]

Temperature got briefly up to 33 here.  With the clouds that have moved in, its back down to 30.7°

This morning's low was 15°  We've really not been radiating well so far this winter compared to usual.  I'm not sure why.  I suspect that the windier than normal conditions on average is part of it, but not necessarily the only factor.

[SACRUS]

 

34 / 16 with some pokes of sun

[Nibor]

Perhaps the fluffiest flurries I’ve ever seen currently coming down in lower Manhattan. 

[NorthShoreWx]

000
NOUS61 KOKX 031615
FTMOKX
Message Date: Feb 03 2026 16:15:43

KOKX radar will be down for maintenance today until ~2330z.

[MJO812]

Norlun on Saturday ?

[SHELEG]

27 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Norlun on Saturday ?

Care to explain?

[TriPol]

5 minutes ago, SHELEG said:

Care to explain?

Inverted trough.

[winterwx21]

Models continue to show some snow with the arctic front Friday night. Looks like a dusting to an inch, but we have a few days to go so maybe it will beef up a little bit. 

[bluewave]

March during the 2020s through 2025 has been the least snowy decade.

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	0.5	0.5
2025	0.0	0.0
2024	0.0	0.0
2023	1.6	1.6
2022	1.6	1.6
2021	T	T
2020	T	T

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	8.2	8.2
2019	4.1	4.1
2018	31.9	31.9
2017	7.4	7.4
2016	3.2	3.2
2015	19.7	19.7
2014	5.4	5.4
2013	7.4	7.4
2012	T	T
2011	2.1	2.1
2010	0.4	0.4

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	5.4	5.4
2009	13.6	13.6
2008	T	T
2007	3.8	3.8
2006	3.2	3.2
2005	13.3	13.3
2004	5.7	5.7
2003	3.7	3.7
2002	T	T
2001	10.3	10.3
2000	0.2	0.2

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	5.8	5.8
1999	9.1	9.1
1998	1.6	1.6
1997	3.7	3.7
1996	12.0	12.0
1995	T	T
1994	5.0	5.0
1993	13.3	13.3
1992	7.6	7.6
1991	1.9	1.9
1990	4.2	4.2

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	3.0	3.0
1989	3.0	3.0
1988	3.4	3.4
1987	1.7	1.7
1986	0.1	0.1
1985	T	T
1984	13.0	13.0
1983	T	T
1982	T	T
1981	7.1	7.1
1980	2.0	2.0

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	3.1	3.1
1979	T	T
1978	10.4	10.4
1977	4.0	4.0
1976	3.9	3.9
1975	1.2	1.2
1974	8.0	8.0
1973	T	T
1972	1.0	1.0
1971	1.0	1.0
1970	1.0	1.0

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	6.9	6.9
1969	11.0	11.0
1968	3.0	3.0
1967	21.7	21.7
1966	0.0	0.0
1965	4.5	4.5
1964	1.0	1.0
1963	M	M
1962	M	M
1961	M	M
1960	M	M

[weatherpruf]

if we're talking about march already....anyway, we are STILL digging out from the last one over here in nj. take the win guys and forget about it. 

[weatherpruf]

47 minutes ago, SHELEG said:

Care to explain?

it's like a lottery.....

[NEG NAO]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

March during the 2020s through 2025 has been the least snowy decade.

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	0.5	0.5
2025	0.0	0.0
2024	0.0	0.0
2023	1.6	1.6
2022	1.6	1.6
2021	T	T
2020	T	T

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	8.2	8.2
2019	4.1	4.1
2018	31.9	31.9
2017	7.4	7.4
2016	3.2	3.2
2015	19.7	19.7
2014	5.4	5.4
2013	7.4	7.4
2012	T	T
2011	2.1	2.1
2010	0.4	0.4

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	5.4	5.4
2009	13.6	13.6
2008	T	T
2007	3.8	3.8
2006	3.2	3.2
2005	13.3	13.3
2004	5.7	5.7
2003	3.7	3.7
2002	T	T
2001	10.3	10.3
2000	0.2	0.2

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	5.8	5.8
1999	9.1	9.1
1998	1.6	1.6
1997	3.7	3.7
1996	12.0	12.0
1995	T	T
1994	5.0	5.0
1993	13.3	13.3
1992	7.6	7.6
1991	1.9	1.9
1990	4.2	4.2

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	3.0	3.0
1989	3.0	3.0
1988	3.4	3.4
1987	1.7	1.7
1986	0.1	0.1
1985	T	T
1984	13.0	13.0
1983	T	T
1982	T	T
1981	7.1	7.1
1980	2.0	2.0

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	3.1	3.1
1979	T	T
1978	10.4	10.4
1977	4.0	4.0
1976	3.9	3.9
1975	1.2	1.2
1974	8.0	8.0
1973	T	T
1972	1.0	1.0
1971	1.0	1.0
1970	1.0	1.0

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	6.9	6.9
1969	11.0	11.0
1968	3.0	3.0
1967	21.7	21.7
1966	0.0	0.0
1965	4.5	4.5
1964	1.0	1.0
1963	M	M
1962	M	M
1961	M	M
1960	M	M

Odds favor at least a few above average March snowfalls the rest of the way through the decade - maybe 1 or more much above normal.

[weatherpruf]

5 hours ago, eduggs said:

I think people forget how warm March has gotten around here. It almost never snows outside the mountains in March these days. And on the uncommon occasions it does, it melts in a day or two. I think we need winter to deliver in February, preferably the first half. Technically it can snow right into April, but climate norms and sun angle get hostile to the winter vibe really fast after mid-Feb. near the coast at 40 degrees north.

it was far warmer in the 80's and i would be fishing for flounder in the navesink by the last week of feb and by mid march would have half a dozen trips in already. that ended by the mid 90's along with the near extinction of the winter flounder stocks, which crashed in the aughts and never recovered.

[The 4 Seasons]

Snowfall-to-date maps updated (#3 for the season). Thanks to everyone who sent reports, i tried to use most of them if i could. Reports are from here, cocorahs, COOP and official climo sites. You can always find these up on the site as well as CT and Southern New England maps.

https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/seasonal-snowfall/25-26-seasonal-snowfall

 

Progression:

[PhiEaglesfan712]

4 hours ago, MarcmmKU said:

Unfavorable enso you think? Nina has been so dominant in the 2020s its insane. We need a good string of niños for the latter half of the 20s to avoid the decade being another disaster like the 80s or worse.

The decade from 1982-92 was el nino/+PDO heavy. We had 3 strong/super el ninos back-to-back (82-83, 86-88, and 91-92), and a +PDO la nina (83-85). The only real break from el nino/+PDO was the strong la nina in 88-89.

Not anything like 2016-present, which has been la nina/-PDO heavy.

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be another relatively mild day. Highs will likely top out in the lower to perhaps middle 30s. A few flurries are possible as a weak system drags a cold front across the region. Colder air will then return on Thursday. An even stronger surge of Arctic air could arrive for the weekend, possibly accompanied by some snow flurries or snow showers. Highs both Saturday and Sunday could be in the teens in New York City. The last time there were two or more consecutive such highs was during January 5-7, 2018.

The persistent and often severely cold pattern could break near February 10th.

Overall, January 20th-February 3rd will likely be the coldest and perhaps snowiest two-week period this winter. The forecast WPO-/EPO-/AO-/PNA+ pattern is typically the coldest pattern in January and among the coldest during the first half of February. A persistently positive PNA will have above climatological risk of moderate or significant snowfalls. 

For perspective, the coldest two-week period this winter prior to January 20th was January 3-16, 2026 and January 4-17, 2026 with a mean temperature of 30.3°. The snowiest two-week period was December 14-27, 2025 when 7.2" of snow fell. Already, snowfall since January 20th has surpassed that figure.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around January 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.38°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.57°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter.

The SOI was +24.06 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -3.750 today.