February 2026 OBS & Discussion

[donsutherland1]

8 minutes ago, Intensewind002 said:

I was 9 years old at the time of this storm. I definitely cried lol

I went to Cape May for the storm. There were near whiteout conditions.

[Volcanic Winter]

Out in just a grid fleece today, crazy how much one acclimatizes to the cold when it becomes truly significant with respect to the human body. 

Felt to me today at 34ish how 45 feels in a normal winter, just chilly. 

[gravitylover]

I went to a hoodie last week and no jacket this afternoon. 

[eduggs]

1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

But many of us don't live in NYC.

The normals in Orange County today are 35/15, on Feb 28 they are 41/20 a big difference from the UHI. Bring on a snowy February and March and let's stop talking about Spring on Feb 2. We're in the middle of a decent winter for the first time in four years, can't we just enjoy it.

All good points. But it's difficult to force the enjoyment when we're staring at such a bleak two weeks of modeling. After mid-Feb a sunny day inevitably feels like Spring, even on a cold day.

[the_other_guy]

Busted way high and one of my pipes finally unfroze! 36F currently

[winterwx21]

Had a high temp of 37 here today. It was nice to be able to go for a run outside this afternoon. Last week I used the exercise bike in the house all week because I don't like running in frigid weather. It felt pretty good out there today. 

[eduggs]

It's kind of impressive how the Euro OP manages to engineer a way to avoid snow for the next 15 days. Barely a dusting in 2+ weeks. And it has support from the other globals and ensembles. In November, sure... but early Feb?!

[donsutherland1]

The longest stretch of subfreezing days since 2017-18 ended today. The ECMWF weeklies show a distinct milder period of 1-2 weeks duration. Social media is suddenly abuzz about the warmth it has noticed. Still, there's no need to despair.

Winter 2025-2026 has already delivered some genuinely great moments. Although those moments might be in the past, they cannot be erased by the forecast moderation that lies ahead beginning around February 10th.

Some highlights:

• New York City experienced its coldest December-January period since 2014-2015.
• New York City saw an 11.4" snowfall with many areas outside the City picking up 12"-18".
• New York City has seen two highs in the teens and two lows in the single digits. Outside the City, numerous locations have experienced subzero lows.
• Ice and ice floes have reappeared in the Hudson River for the first time in years.

In a wider perspective, parts of the Great Lakes Region saw a record November daily snowfall, Toronto experienced its biggest snowstorm on record, and parts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina enjoyed a generational snowstorm.

Nothing is cast in stone. Model skill beyond two weeks is low. Forecast patterns can change. Sometimes abruptly.

IMO, rather than riding an emotional roller-coaster with each turn of the models or allowing the most negative outcomes to drive winter's wonderful moments from memory, it's better to appreciate what we've already experienced and stay patient about what lies ahead.

Spring will come. It always does. But Winter 2025-2026 may still bring additional cold and snowfall, even if the models cannot currently see the cold and snow at the long lead times involved.

[steve392]

Man it got warm today.  Needed to put the a/c on in this torch

[nycsnow]

[donsutherland1]

Temperatures have begun to moderate. In New York City, the temperature broke above freezing for the first time since January 23. That was the longest such stretch since Winter 2017-2018.

Tomorrow and Wednesday will likely see highs in the lower to perhaps middle 30s. A few flurries are possible on Wednesday as a weak system drags a cold front across the region. Colder air will then return on Thursday. An even stronger surge of Arctic air could arrive for the weekend, possibly accompanied by some snow flurries or snow showers.

The persistent and often severely cold pattern could break near February 10th.

Overall, January 20th-February 3rd will likely be the coldest and perhaps snowiest two-week period this winter. The forecast WPO-/EPO-/AO-/PNA+ pattern is typically the coldest pattern in January and among the coldest during the first half of February. A persistently positive PNA will have above climatological risk of moderate or significant snowfalls. 

For perspective, the coldest two-week period this winter prior to January 20th was January 3-16, 2026 and January 4-17, 2026 with a mean temperature of 30.3°. The snowiest two-week period was December 14-27, 2025 when 7.2" of snow fell. Already, snowfall since January 20th has surpassed that figure.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around January 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.38°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.57°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter.

The SOI was +24.02 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -3.066 today. 

[eduggs]

The AI models have performed really well this winter IMO, especially synoptically. They vary run-to-run a lot less than their parent physics-based models. It's becoming less likely for a surprise snowstorm to appear inside 7 days. That's a good thing for forecast accuracy, but a discouraging thing when the forecast looks unfavorable. 

[Roger Smith]

Even if it doesn't snow again, this winter has passed 56 other winters for total snowfall (at 21.1" NYC). If it snows 3 more inches it will pass another eleven. If it snows another 6" it will pass a total of 80 (of 158) and be close to passing several more. My stats include a higher value for 1868-69 than just the snow measured Jan 1 to Apr 1869 as Dec 1868 was a cold month with coastal lows indicated on weather charts, so I assumed that winter made it to around 35" ... the median value for all winters is a bit lower than the mean by about one inch. 

Don could confirm this but I believe this winter could be ahead of 1887-88 at this point of the winter severity index. It probably will stay ahead for a while but I don't like its chances during March. 

[Volcanic Winter]

I mean all said and done as modeled this will end up a solid month block of below normal to very below normal, in the heart of winter. We only capitalized on one major storm but it was a good storm, surprisingly for all despite concerns about NYC / CNJ to me. This next arctic blast looks intense and I’m going to enjoy it one last time, get our fireplace going and make hot chocolate with my wife from scratch. If after we go fully mild through the last two weeks of Feb, nobody can say this wasn’t a fascinating winter that altered the crappy tempo of the 2020’s.

I got my money’s worth even if it wasn’t a prolific snowfall season. Still chipping my parents out of their encased ice palace in Seaside too, lol - I’m going to need an oil change and 120k service on my body soon. 

[donsutherland1]

13 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

Even if it doesn't snow again, this winter has passed 56 other winters for total snowfall (at 21.1" NYC). If it snows 3 more inches it will pass another eleven. If it snows another 6" it will pass a total of 80 (of 158) and be close to passing several more. My stats include a higher value for 1868-69 than just the snow measured Jan 1 to Apr 1869 as Dec 1868 was a cold month with coastal lows indicated on weather charts, so I assumed that winter made it to around 35" ... the median value for all winters is a bit lower than the mean by about one inch. 

Don could confirm this but I believe this winter could be ahead of 1887-88 at this point of the winter severity index. It probably will stay ahead for a while but I don't like its chances during March. 

1887-88 is ahead mainly because it was several degrees colder through January even as it had slightly less snowfall than the current winter.