Possible coastal storm centered on Feb 1 2026.

[ineedsnow]

some pretty insane GEFS members.. off to bed hope the Euro comes in good

[brooklynwx99]

this speaks for itself. insane to see this 6 days out

[MuddyWx]

better 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It wouldn't have been biblical bc it closed off to far south.

4seasons just said that it didn’t close off early enough.  But Whatever, I just hope this one can get close enough.  

[WxWatcher007]

30 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Hopefully it can get closer than 1/4/18 did…that would have been biblical had it gotten closer. But it gave us a good storm despite it being so far east. 

Thermonuclear detonation. What a beaut it was. 

15 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Hey EoR crew, can you sacrifice this one for us here in the valley to jackpot since we got screwed with rates with this last storm? Please?

Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk
 

Absolutely not. Any backyard that isn't mine is the enemy. 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this speaks for itself. insane to see this 6 days out

A ton of energy there…but why is it insane at 6 days out?  

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

A ton of energy there…but why is it insane at 6 days out?  

An ensemble mean showing that kind of 500mb evolution is the equivalent of an ensemble showing a U.S. hurricane strike from a week out imo. For so many members to respond this way is a very strong signal for a high end event. Can and likely will change to be sure, but it makes you sit up. 

[tiger_deF]

8 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

A ton of energy there…but why is it insane at 6 days out?  

I see this a lot with hurricane tracking - where an EPS ensemble mean will have a fairly weak low pressure signal a week out which actually correlates to a substantial risk of formation. Since each ensemble member is seeded differently, the differences in the model outputs between each ensemble will compound frame by frame a la butterfly effect. To have a defined and visible low pressure system so (relatively) far out means that many of the ensembles are in agreement.

[George001]

I’d be happy with a repeat of the early Jan 2018 storm. Yeah it left some on the table, but it was still a blizzard and still had over a foot of snow. If we get a repeat of that, I’m looking at reaching my seasonal average snowfall by Feb 2nd. No matter what happens, still a lot of winter left.

[SnoSki14]

14 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this speaks for itself. insane to see this 6 days out

Yeah that's sick. Also look at the trends over the past few runs. The signal is crazy 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, tiger_deF said:

I see this a lot with hurricane forecasting - where an EPS ensemble mean will have a fairly weak low pressure signal a week out which actually correlates to a substantial risk of formation. Since each ensemble member is seeded differently, the differences in the model outputs between each ensemble will compound frame by frame. To have a defined and visible low pressure system so relatively far out means that many of the ensembles are in agreement

Ahh ok. I didn’t know that was an ensemble mean.  Was thinking it was an Op run. That makes sense now. Thanks for the clarification. Appreciate it. 

[tunafish]

16 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this speaks for itself. insane to see this 6 days out

Christ on a cracker

[WinterWolf]

7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

An ensemble mean showing that kind of 500mb evolution is the equivalent of an ensemble showing a U.S. hurricane strike from a week out imo. For so many members to respond this way is a very strong signal for a high end event. Can and likely will change to be sure, but it makes you sit up. 

Thanks Don…didn’t realize that was an ensemble mean..that was why I was a little confused. Makes sense. 

[Prismshine Productions]

Skynet shifted SE

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[WeatherGeek2025]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Geek, this may not even get up here. So no maps until we’re sure this is coming up, and is close enough for a good hit. Tomorrow is not the time for a snow map.  Chill for a bit.  If it becomes more imminent…post your maps then. 

We all just need this 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Euro misses as it stalls off hatteras. Not sure if I’ve ever seen that in winter before but holy cane.

[Roger Smith]

ECM reminds me of March 1-2 1980, heavy snow Norfolk and Virginia Beach. 5" to DC, traces to se PA-c NJ. Clear and very cold further north. I am not endorsing it, just saying that's what it looks like. 

[Torch Tiger]

euro ai good for far eastern areas, heartbreaking elsewhere. 

[ineedsnow]

6z GFS bombs away hr114

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

6z GFS bombs away hr114

Very close . Southern States get a lot of snow.

Great spot right now

[ineedsnow]

Misses as that second low takes over and heads east

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Very close . Southern States get a lot of snow.

Great spot right now

There's so much potential with this if we can get it up the coast

[ineedsnow]

6z Ai GFS is further west compared to 0z gets eastern MA and cape hard.. advisory snows to here

[ineedsnow]

ICON EPS FWIW 

[binbisso]

I don't think we want the trough to dig to Georgia and close off. Tennessee or Kentucky would be better

[moneypitmike]

39 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

6z GFS bombs away hr114

Bombs its way to kiss the Cape as it heads to Nova Scotia

[Modfan2]

33 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

6z Ai GFS is further west compared to 0z gets eastern MA and cape hard.. advisory snows to here

Still 6 days out, but I think this might be the best scenario, with RI, Eastern Mass having the best shot at snow. Again, 6 days out and plenty time for change.

[Roger Smith]

To be clear the GFS does not show it heading for Nova Scotia, it's going due east towards the Azores. 

But I figure the eventual solution will be a direct hit on New England anyway. You drive all that arctic air into the eastern Gulf and Florida, it's going to rocket north like the 1993 superstorm or the 1899 blizzard did. These rare intrusions of extreme cold into those latitudes are supportive of explosive cyclogenesis. So is the tidal energy of full moon (Feb 2-3). This thing has huge storm written all over it. (my mind is doing a Jebwalk)

[CoastalWx]

Kind of an occluded mess on models. Although the precip arc would have the goods.

[Damage In Tolland]

Even without a direct hit it would snow for everyone