Possible coastal storm centered on Feb 1 2026.

[ineedsnow]

some pretty insane GEFS members.. off to bed hope the Euro comes in good

[brooklynwx99]

this speaks for itself. insane to see this 6 days out

[MuddyWx]

better 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It wouldn't have been biblical bc it closed off to far south.

4seasons just said that it didn’t close off early enough.  But Whatever, I just hope this one can get close enough.  

[WxWatcher007]

30 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Hopefully it can get closer than 1/4/18 did…that would have been biblical had it gotten closer. But it gave us a good storm despite it being so far east. 

Thermonuclear detonation. What a beaut it was. 

15 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Hey EoR crew, can you sacrifice this one for us here in the valley to jackpot since we got screwed with rates with this last storm? Please?

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Absolutely not. Any backyard that isn't mine is the enemy. 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this speaks for itself. insane to see this 6 days out

A ton of energy there…but why is it insane at 6 days out?  

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

A ton of energy there…but why is it insane at 6 days out?  

An ensemble mean showing that kind of 500mb evolution is the equivalent of an ensemble showing a U.S. hurricane strike from a week out imo. For so many members to respond this way is a very strong signal for a high end event. Can and likely will change to be sure, but it makes you sit up. 

[tiger_deF]

8 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

A ton of energy there…but why is it insane at 6 days out?  

I see this a lot with hurricane tracking - where an EPS ensemble mean will have a fairly weak low pressure signal a week out which actually correlates to a substantial risk of formation. Since each ensemble member is seeded differently, the differences in the model outputs between each ensemble will compound frame by frame a la butterfly effect. To have a defined and visible low pressure system so (relatively) far out means that many of the ensembles are in agreement.

[George001]

I’d be happy with a repeat of the early Jan 2018 storm. Yeah it left some on the table, but it was still a blizzard and still had over a foot of snow. If we get a repeat of that, I’m looking at reaching my seasonal average snowfall by Feb 2nd. No matter what happens, still a lot of winter left.

[SnoSki14]

14 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this speaks for itself. insane to see this 6 days out

Yeah that's sick. Also look at the trends over the past few runs. The signal is crazy 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, tiger_deF said:

I see this a lot with hurricane forecasting - where an EPS ensemble mean will have a fairly weak low pressure signal a week out which actually correlates to a substantial risk of formation. Since each ensemble member is seeded differently, the differences in the model outputs between each ensemble will compound frame by frame. To have a defined and visible low pressure system so relatively far out means that many of the ensembles are in agreement

Ahh ok. I didn’t know that was an ensemble mean.  Was thinking it was an Op run. That makes sense now. Thanks for the clarification. Appreciate it. 

[tunafish]

16 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this speaks for itself. insane to see this 6 days out

Christ on a cracker

[WinterWolf]

7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

An ensemble mean showing that kind of 500mb evolution is the equivalent of an ensemble showing a U.S. hurricane strike from a week out imo. For so many members to respond this way is a very strong signal for a high end event. Can and likely will change to be sure, but it makes you sit up. 

Thanks Don…didn’t realize that was an ensemble mean..that was why I was a little confused. Makes sense. 

[Prismshine Productions]

Skynet shifted SE

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[WeatherGeek2025]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Geek, this may not even get up here. So no maps until we’re sure this is coming up, and is close enough for a good hit. Tomorrow is not the time for a snow map.  Chill for a bit.  If it becomes more imminent…post your maps then. 

We all just need this 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Euro misses as it stalls off hatteras. Not sure if I’ve ever seen that in winter before but holy cane.

[Roger Smith]

ECM reminds me of March 1-2 1980, heavy snow Norfolk and Virginia Beach. 5" to DC, traces to se PA-c NJ. Clear and very cold further north. I am not endorsing it, just saying that's what it looks like. 

[Torch Tiger]

euro ai good for far eastern areas, heartbreaking elsewhere.