February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: Buckle Up!

[Jebman]

35 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Huh? 6z gfs has shittyfrontalpassage snow. Little swath of 1-3”. Then about a foot 6 days later and ends the run with a HECS for Houston TX lol.

Please, no more wintry weather in south central TX.

I was super fortunate to never fall on that damn ice.

[aldie 22]

Wish my Greensboro meeting was today.   

[TSSN+]

24 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I was comparing surface maps at 120hrs on 6z Icon and Gfs.

Give me whatever the icon is smokin. 

[GreyHat]

35 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I was comparing surface maps at 120hrs on 6z Icon and Gfs.

Looking at the 120 hr 500 level maps. 

The GFS has a positive or somewhat flat trough, whereas the ICON shows a neutral trough. 

EURO AIFS supports GFS  with the positive trough.

The GFS AI trough isn't as positive as the GFS and brings a little qpf to the MD area and south. 

This big system hitting our southern parts gets out of here.

 

[Ji]

Wish my Greensboro meeting was today.   

No you don’t. They might be in dry slot hell lol

[stormy]

Icon is out on a limb compared to others at 00 and 06 with that H5 look.

12z will be very interesting to see if it persists with the 180. 

[Climate175]

18 minutes ago, stormy said:

Icon is out on a limb compared to others at 00 and 06 with that H5 look.

12z will be very interesting to see if it persists with the 180. 

Yup.

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

No you don’t. They might be in dry slot hell lol

You should be keeping an eye on the 11-12th window you claimed- on the ens runs. Stop looking at the ops.

I told you I would expand that window a bit.. the trough out west might work for us with the favorable NA look towards mid month.

 

[Kevin Reilly]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

I was comparing surface maps at 120hrs on 6z Icon and Gfs.

Well lookie there there is the kicker coming southeast out of Canada both models. 

[Superstorm]

That ICON is not happening.

If the AIs don’t show it, I don’t believe it.


.

[frd]

58 minutes ago, CAPE said:

You should be keeping an eye on the 11-12th window you claimed- on the ens runs. Stop looking at the ops.

I told you I would expand that window a bit.. the trough out west might work for us with the favorable NA look towards mid month.

 

As you stated, signs of some STJ in this period possibly.

 

 

 

 

[frd]

[mitchnick]

Nam's liking next week it seems. Good to know we have the 2 best models in support of our cause.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2026013112&fh=84&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

We just need to move that GL low along before it crushes it.