February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: 150K Salary Needed to Post

[mitchnick]

6hr snowfall on 18z Eps at 144hrs. Nothing in our area before that hour.

[Weather Will]

Kind of exhausted tracking the last two weeks; get something showing up inside 5 days and I will  get back on the saddle...

[Blizzard of 93]

21 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z AI EPS tanked like the GEFS.

The lower snow totals on the 18z AI EPS are  mostly due to a south & east track cluster and lower precipitation totals that held down snow amounts on most members. It basically followed the Op AI Euro this run.

[Blizzard of 93]

1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The lower snow totals on the 18z AI EPS are  mostly due to a south & east track cluster and lower precipitation totals that held down snow amounts on most members. It basically followed the Op AI Euro this run.

18z AI EPS main issue is lack of good precip getting near most of the region.

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

18z AI EPS main issue is lack of good precip getting near most of the region.

Seems like mother nature is doing her best to pad the snow stats of central and southern VA, but even she can fail too with rain getting in the way.

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Seems like mother nature is doing her best to pad the snow stats of central and southern VA, but even she can fail too with rain getting in the way.

Yeah it isn't going to snow down there in this upcoming pattern lol. Barely any chance up in our area. If they get precip its gonna be rain. The cold airmass is long gone. Good for them tho.. we be droughting.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

12z EPS is at least trying to cool us down from the north for the last few days of February

Unfortunately we need a little bit more of a cold anomaly for snow by then. 

Average highs might be too warm but what is the mean 850 and wet bulb temp?  Again why do you act like we need a cold regime to snow. We have needed that recently but historically we got so many snowstorms in marginal thermal regimes if we get a good storm track. Do you know how many Baltimore snows were 45 the day before and after it snowed. We need those to return. Because cold regimes are often dry!  A big part of our snow climo was from snowstorms in marginal temp regimes not cold ones. One of the reasons we are stuck in the worst snow drought EVER is that for the last 10 years or only snows when it’s cold. We need to get snow when the pattern isn’t perfect or Baltimore is going to continue to average half of what it’s long term 140 year average actually is. 

[ravensrule]

32 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Kind of exhausted tracking the last two weeks; get something showing up inside 5 days and I will  get back on the saddle...

You're retired and we rely on you, you have to have 6 more weeks in you. 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, ravensrule said:

You're retired and we rely on you, you have to have 6 more weeks in you. 

Did you just call him a ground hog?

[Yeoman]

52 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Kind of exhausted tracking the last two weeks; get something showing up inside 5 days and I will  get back on the saddle...

Right mouse button finally fall off?

[cbmclean]

49 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Average highs might be too warm but what is the mean 850 and wet bulb temp?  Again why do you act like we need a cold regime to snow. We have needed that recently but historically we got so many snowstorms in marginal thermal regimes if we get a good storm track. Do you know how many Baltimore snows were 45 the day before and after it snowed. We need those to return. Because cold regimes are often dry!  A big part of our snow climo was from snowstorms in marginal temp regimes not cold ones. One of the reasons we are stuck in the worst snow drought EVER is that for the last 10 years or only snows when it’s cold. We need to get snow when the pattern isn’t perfect or Baltimore is going to continue to average half of what it’s long term 140 year average actually is. 

Do you actually think there is a chance to recover any of that loss?  I fear that ship may have sailed.

[NorthArlington101]

Do you actually think there is a chance to recover any of that loss?  I fear that ship may have sailed.

Any company that invents carbon recapture will be a full port of my portfolio! Til then…

[Stormchaserchuck1]

What we don't want to see in the long range is that -PNA ridge pinching off NW to cutoff over Russia, while a low comes underneath of it in western Canada and Alaska.. could flood US with warm air down the road if it evolves like this. Earlier it was looking like the Pac ridge was wanting to eventually go polar, but this is how models have trended the last few days.. 

Possibly if the MJO were to stay strong, it would support this pattern, going through Phases 3-6

[psuhoffman]

45 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Do you actually think there is a chance to recover any of that loss?  I fear that ship may have sailed.

I don’t know. We’ve been in a bad pacific and Atlantic cycle simultaneously. Past examples of this were low snowfall periods too. But this one was about 20% worse!  Do I think Baltimore ever gets back to averaging 23” over a 30 year period…no. But so o think our mean is really about 12” now?  God I hope not.  And I do think we could still see a cycle where we get a favorable PDO and nao and Baltimore could get a 10 year period it averages 20”  
 

But my bigger issue here is some of the people who are the biggest leaders of the “it’s not because of warming” band are also the ones acting like we need a fooking perfect pattern with a epo pna ridge and arctic air to get snow.  Which ignores the reality of why was a huge part of our snow climo!  They can’t have it both ways. They can’t say we can’t snow without a perfect pacific AND cry “climate change has nothing to do with it” because that would be a freaking change. We didn’t used to need the pacific to be perfect to get snow. Lately yes. But that’s why it’s sucked lately. And some of the same ppl saying this is just cyclical are also the ones saying “it dsnt possibly snow with a less than perfect pattern”. Ok if that true then it is climate change because it wasn’t that way and that’s a change. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Not a perfect pattern is +450dm -PNA Aleutian ridge and <5000dm in Alaska.. it's an extreme shift. If the PNA were like +100dm, could have snowed marginally? Sure. 

[psuhoffman]

27 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

What we don't want to see in the long range is that -PNA ridge pinching off NW to cutoff over Russia, while a low comes underneath of it in western Canada and Alaska.. could flood US with warm air if it evolves like this. Earlier it was looking like the Pac ridge was wanting to eventually go polar, but this is how models have trended the last few days.. 

Luckily the EpS and GEPS are better 

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Not a perfect pattern is +450dm -PNA Aleutian ridge and <5000dm in Alaska.. it's an extreme shift. If the PNA were like +100dm, could have snowed marginally? Sure. 

You’re still missing my point. We don’t get marginally bad pac patterns anymore because heights are increasing. Ridges are getting stronger. A +400dm ridge in the n pac was freaking unheard of 50 years ago and now it happens multiple times every year!  When the pac goes bad it doesn’t go a little bad it goes to hell in a hand basket and overwhelms the pattern with warmth. But you’re acting like that is normal and not part of climate change. You’re not supposed to see a +400dm ridge this often. You can’t have it both ways. You can’t say this has nothing to do with climate change then act like something that was unheard of in the past is normal. 

[AlexD1990]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Thank you for answering the question “what if there was another Chuck, but who didn’t know anything and was even more annoyingly repetitive”. 
 

Im not sure who was asking that question but thanks for answering anyways. 

I would honestly be terrified to ever debate you on any subject. thankfully I am relatively sure we likely agree on a lot of things..

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

You’re still missing my point. We don’t get marginally bad pac patterns anymore because heights are increasing. Ridges are getting stronger. A +400dm ridge in the n pac was freaking unheard of 50 years ago and now it happens multiple times every year!  When the pac goes bad it doesn’t go a little bad it goes to hell in a hand basket and overwhelms the pattern with warmth. But you’re acting like that is normal and not part of climate change. You’re not supposed to see a +400dm ridge this often. You can’t have it both ways. You can’t say this has nothing to do with climate change then act like something that was unheard of in the past is normal. 

Even so, it's a bad pattern by a long shot. Classic -PNA. It's warmed a little yeah, but the 2000s pattern does not favor snow when that >250dm ridge appears in the Pacific. Your map yesterday was really missing that anomaly. Pay attention to it more - it's a pretty good correlation, on both sides. medium range models do have a slight bias. 

[wasnow215]

38 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

What we don't want to see in the long range is that -PNA ridge pinching off NW to cutoff over Russia, while a low comes underneath of it in western Canada and Alaska.. could flood US with warm air down the road if it evolves like this. Earlier it was looking like the Pac ridge was wanting to eventually go polar, but this is how models have trended the last few days.. 

Possibly if the MJO were to stay strong, it would support this pattern, going through Phases 3-6

That'll change in a couple days, and then again a couple days after that. Wash, rinse, repeat.

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Even so, it's a bad pattern by a long shot. Classic -PNA. It's warmed a little yeah, but the 2000s pattern does not favor snow when that >250dm ridge appears in the Pacific. Your map yesterday was really missing that anomaly. Pay attention to it more - it's a pretty good correlation, on both sides. medium range models do have a slight bias. 

You just deflected right past my point and launched right back into yours. Ignoring the “why do we keep seeing ridges that were unheard of 50 years ago commonly now” 

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

You just deflected right past my point and launched right back into yours. Ignoring the “why do we keep seeing ridges that were unheard of 50 years ago commonly now” 

Round 2...debate!

[bncho]

8 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said:

I would honestly be terrified to ever debate you on any subject. thankfully I am relatively sure we likely agree on a lot of things..

He's a debate coach. I would probably quit the forum if it were me vs PSU in a debate.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You just deflected right past my point and launched right back into yours. Ignoring the “why do we keep seeing ridges that were unheard of 50 years ago commonly now” 

You've been pointing out anomalies, saying there is a chance. This is the Feb months SE ridge correlation to -PNA.. 48-20 is 73 years, so 73 points of monthly data. Breaking it down daily probably gives higher correlation numbers.. our mean temp in Feb in -PNA is Upper 40s, everything considered.. 1940s,1950s, and now

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

You've been pointing out anomalies, saying there is a chance. This is the Feb months SE ridge correlation to -PNA.. 48-20 is 73 years, so 73 points of monthly data. Breaking it down daily probably gives higher correlation numbers.. our mean temp in Feb in -PNA is Upper 40s, everything considered. 

Thanks for answering a question I didn’t ask. But still waiting for you to answer why we keep seeing ridges that were unheard of in the past? 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Thanks for answering a question I didn’t ask. But still waiting for you to answer why we keep seeing ridges that were unheard of in the past? 

AMO?

-AMO ibb.co/bR3LvKW

+AMO ibb.co/KctZCPm

-AMO ibb.co/wKX4YCC

+AMO ibb.co/sFSwm0j

[Stormchaserchuck1]

All I care about is getting the forecast right.. why we don't snow anymore as the past is your own tangent. I don't think it's as big of a difference as you make it look, but I don't want to spend a lot of time arguing that.. since 2017 I've observed a downstream bias in medium range models with PNA. Adjustments and make a forecast accordingly, it has worked out so far. Want to guess what the high temps are on the storm day? 

45 in DC? 42 in Baltimore? Feb 15-16

[bncho]

PSU vs Chuck is like watching an unstoppable force vs an immovable object

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

AMO?

-AMO ibb.co/bR3LvKW

+AMO ibb.co/KctZCPm

-AMO ibb.co/wKX4YCC

+AMO ibb.co/sFSwm0j

We’ve had this same confluence of crappy Atlantic and pacific before. The 1970s were an almost identical phenomenon. But look at these two anomaly plots. Why is now so much more red. Why Chuck??   It’s the same pattern so why is it warmer? 

 

has it occurred to you that the reason it’s snowing less is because when we get a crappy pattern it’s even more crappy now. About 40% of our snowfall used to come in flawed patterns. And those snows were barely food enough 50 years ago. We couldn’t afford what those 2 plots above show has happened!  Yes we still snow when the pattern is good. But when it’s not good it’s hopeless now and you’re ignoring that. You’re pretending it’s always been this way. They getting snow requires the pattern to be perfect. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

^Pac ridge is about as unfavorable as a spot as it gets in the 20-25 plot.. it's a little further west in the 1970s, allowing some space for gulf of alaska negative anomaly.. our snowiest patterns are negative gulf of alaska, so those little differences are actually big.. it's fragile.