January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage OBS Thread!

[pazzo83]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

~2” liquid at all 3 airports. We actually overperformed by a healthy amount.

it's been a LONG time since we had a precip producer like this.

[MN Transplant]

3 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Gotta say...that seems kind of low for the amount of liquid equivalent since folks around us started off with 5" or so of snow (depending on where you are).

Funny thing is that it was kind of a calculated number.  At no point did I ever have more than ~7.7” on the ground.  A lot of compaction with the weight of the sleet on top.  But I also couldn’t find any place that would legitimately give me more than 3.5” of sleet.  So, yeah, a 2:1 ratio on the sleet.

[Snowciopathic Snow Bro]

2 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

it's been a LONG time since we had a precip producer like this.

Who knew that it would take a glacier to bust a drought?  

[jayyy]

Makes sense, after about 4:30 or 5 PM it started coming down heavy again with over an inch/hour rates for a few hours. Bigger flakes after 2 hours of poor growth. I had about 15" at 3 PM. Looking like just over 20 or even 21" now.

Solid!! My mom FaceTimed me from the driveway mid afternoon and it was nuking out. Looked awesome. Congrats on the chase. I love living down here but boy do I miss living somewhere where niñas produce.

[nj2va]

17 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

That is incredible. What a storm 

This is going to be among a favorite of mine on my top lists. Thanks for all of your analysis!

[csnavywx]

Finally ended down here. Getting power flickers and still hearing the occasional branch crash outside. Will get a proper radial measurement in the morning. Headed to bed.

[Nomz]

Just a light glaze on top of the snow and sleet here in DC.

[pazzo83]

next thing to look for this week - does DC get below zero for the first time in 32 years?

[WEATHER53]

1 hour ago, mattie g said:

Question: If I measured 5" of snow before the flip, then measured 4.5" of sleet, that's a total of 9.5" even if I only measure 6.5" after the precip ends, right?

You accumulated 9.5 but that compacted to 6.5 

[ThePhotoGuy]

Very light glaze on railings & powerlines. Trees didn't really look like they accumulated much but hard to tell in the dark. Glad its minimal because I like power!

[MillvilleWx]

11 minutes ago, nj2va said:

This is going to be among a favorite of mine on my top lists. Thanks for all of your analysis!

This was one TOUGH storm to forecast. This stuff is not easy. I’m happy with my forecast. Maybe underestimated part of MD, but I’ll gladly accept considering how insane this one was to figure out. Overall, this is an all timer with regards to winter weather for a storm perspective. It’s about to get crazy with the cold following too. 

[HighStakes]

This was a really nasty storm. Affects will be felt for days with the consistent cold that is imminent. Question is will this be the start of a historic period leading to a winter that will be fondly remembered in years to come? The players are on the field!

[mattie g]

2 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

This was a really nasty storm. Affects will be felt for days with the consistent cold that is imminent. Question is will this be the start of a historic period leading to a winter that will be fondly remembered in years to come? The players are on the field!

I think if we score a decent event (6-10", if not more) at the back end of this cold spell and then we hit a couple more small/moderate events later on, then it will go down as one of the more memorable winters around here. Not 09-10, 02-03, 95-96 type winters, but definitely among ones we can recall pretty easily in the future.

[grhqofb5]

In Odenton we had about 8-10” total snow/sleet/freezing rain. So much ZR at the end that when I walked outside i didn’t fall through right away at 200lbs.

Dog looks likes she’s some sort of canine Jesus walking on the surface of the snow.

[AlexD1990]

3 minutes ago, grhqofb5 said:

In Odenton we had about 8-10” total snow/sleet/freezing rain. So much ZR at the end that when I walked outside i didn’t fall through right away at 200lbs.

Dog looks likes she’s some sort of canine Jesus walking on the surface of the snow.

Well you can't just say that without a pic of canine Jesus 

[Nomz]

12 minutes ago, mattie g said:

I think if we score a decent event (6-10", if not more) at the back end of this cold spell and then we hit a couple more small/moderate events later on, then it will go down as one of the more memorable winters around here. Not 09-10, 02-03, 95-96 type winters, but definitely among ones we can recall pretty easily in the future.

Per EPS mean, we aren't getting past freezing in DC till February 5th (!!). Aside from sun angle nonsense, any precip on the ground + any new precip (looking at next weekend) will stack up easy.

[Jebman]

2 minutes ago, Nomz said:

Per EPS mean, we aren't getting past freezing in DC till February 5th (!!). Aside from sun angle nonsense, any precip on the ground + any new precip (looking at next weekend) will stack up easy.

Get used to that glacier. It aint goin nowhere anytime soon.

[jayyy]

Get used to that glacier. It aint goin nowhere anytime soon.

About to add to it next week

[Jebman]

1 minute ago, jayyy said:

About to add to it next week

That might end up being a BIG snowstorm for you guys!

[Kay]

I measured 6.5" snow after the flip, around 10 am. Measured the sleet portion around 4 pm, inconsistent 2" - 2.5". Another ~quarter inch fell after that. I feel safe saying mby recd 9", it might be low. Nearest spotters so far are Abingdon (10") and T. August btw 9-10" I think.

[Terrapinwx]

Solid layer of ice on everything, going to be a beautiful scenery when the sun comes up in the morning


.

[87storms]

47 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

This was a really nasty storm. Affects will be felt for days with the consistent cold that is imminent. Question is will this be the start of a historic period leading to a winter that will be fondly remembered in years to come? The players are on the field!

I'm 50/50.  On the one hand, it's been generally cold this winter and we've got a historic (on some level) cold stretch coming up.  On the other hand, it was cold af leading into this storm and the majority still ended up as pingers.  Warm air intrusion has been a thing the last few years and this storm was no exception.  Long story short...tbd.

[ravensrule]

18 minutes ago, 87storms said:

I'm 50/50.  On the one hand, it's been generally cold this winter and we've got a historic (on some level) cold stretch coming up.  On the other hand, it was cold af leading into this storm and the majority still ended up as pingers.  Warm air intrusion has been a thing the last few years and this storm was no exception.  Long story short...tbd.

I got 7.1” before it flipped. That’s pretty darn good. You may actually be the second biggest complainer on the board. 

[Fozz]

My parents told me they received around 10" -  a very solid and respectable total, and it presumably includes the sleet.

This wasn't the perfect snowstorm but it sure was good enough to break a multi-year, in some spots a decade-long curse for many. And the coming weeks have the potential to be truly memorable. I don't believe this will be the last solid event of the season.

[Fozz]

2 hours ago, pazzo83 said:

next thing to look for this week - does DC get below zero for the first time in 32 years?

I was practically a toddler last time it happened in the immediate metros, and now I'm a few years from 40.

I wanted to think the models were overdone with the cold, but the more they persist, the more I question what I thought was possible in this post-2016 base state.

[pazzo83]

2 minutes ago, Fozz said:

I was practically a toddler last time it happened in the immediate metros, and now I'm a few years from 40.

I wanted to think the models were overdone with the cold, but the more they persist, the more I question what I thought was possible in this post-2016 base state.

I was surprised when NYC got there in 2016 - it took basically the perfect flow of cold air down the Hudson.  For DC, all the snow around will help.  But I will still be shocked if we get there.

[Interstate]

Wasn’t too bad. 45 minutes.  16 degrees 

[bncho]

check out the LR thread yall

[GreyHat]

Temp falling 23F

Pressure rising 29.60

Final freezing rain total according to the weather system .42"

 

[JakkelWx]

Several additional hours of moderate snow overnight has finally stopped as of 6 AM. Looks like an additional 2" - Harriman NY