January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage OBS Thread!

[davidjd1114]

Almost 3 inches in York and snowing decently


.

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, balltermen said:

snow 

Say it like @WEATHER53 would say it in his eastern shore accent.

[urbansnowlover]

Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Are you in culpepper as ur profile says?

Yes, western Culpeper County between Culpeper and Sperryville.

[ifindppl]

 I am jealous of you all who are kicking back and drinking or whatever.  I have snow blowing and shoveling in my very near future.  I need to be clear headed to make sure I know when to stop (I am probably older than many on this board). 

[weatherCCB]

4.5”

heavy snow

14

[ErinInTheSky]

5 minutes ago, snowfan said:

What on earth is going on with those CCs? I’m sure people who are much more knowledgeable can explain. Looks like the sleet line has a big hole in it.

 

Anyway. SN+ right now in Gaithersburg. They’re plowing snow into piles right now that will be glaciers later today.

[snowfan]

Mix line rapidly approaching the Springfield mixing bowl.

[eyewall]

This is definitely fluff here in Sterling, VA so far. A nice enjoyable snow for the time being even if it is not the huge totals originally forecast. 

https://www.facebook.com/share/v/1b2vZ4L7g1/

https://www.facebook.com/share/r/173i8AL2S3/

[Ji]

How accurate is the correlation sleet radar model thing ?

[Ravens94]

Sleet line is rocking north now into PG county at this rate it will be to rt 50 in the next 30 minutes if that.

[87storms]

I’m not sure people realize how serious it is to be flipping to rain when it’s 15 degrees out. I really hope that doesn’t happen up here.

[katabatic]

I'm not exactly sure what the hell is falling. Kinda sand like with a few "real" flakes mixed in. Winds are screaming out of the SE with a temp of 4. Maybe 2.5" so far eyeballing it. 

[wxmeddler]

1 minute ago, ErinInTheSky said:

What on earth is going on with those CCs? I’m sure people who are much more knowledgeable can explain. Looks like the sleet line has a big hole in it.

That is the CAD Wedge. There lower CC returns aloft within the wedge, but it seems right now that the temp is dancing around 31-32 within the wedge at about 8fkt. Leading to rimed flakes but not a full sleet transition.

[eyewall]

Just now, 87storms said:

I’m not sure people realize how serious it is to be flipping to rain when it’s 15 degrees out. I really hope that doesn’t happen up here.

Raleigh, NC is reporting 19F and ZR this morning which is definitely rare.

[nj2va]

7 minutes ago, balltermen said:

i have 4.25".   i'm not going to comment on the NAM yet, but I have a diatribe warming up in the bullpen 

Just measured 4.3” so tracking exactly.  Sound of the snow has changed to an icier sound so I think the flip is likely soon…maybe an hour or so but don’t think we have that long.  Where in Alexandria?

[LeesburgWx]

Woke up. About to check stats shortly. Looks like 3-4” eyeballing. Everything js just a winter wonderland atm

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

5 minutes ago, urbansnowlover said:

Yes, western Culpeper County between Culpeper and Sperryville.

Thanks! Rain and 13 degrees is wild.  Keep us updated!

[RevWarReenactor]

2 minutes ago, 87storms said:

I’m not sure people realize how serious it is to be flipping to rain when it’s 15 degrees out. I really hope that doesn’t happen up here.

People seemed so focused on the snow that this is getting ignored. Hopefully the models are wrong, but that could be very bad.

[ErinInTheSky]

2 minutes ago, wxmeddler said:

That is the CAD Wedge. There lower CC returns aloft within the wedge, but it seems right now that the temp is dancing around 31-32 within the wedge at about 8fkt. Leading to rimed flakes but not a full sleet transition.

Cool! And we want that wedge to hold as long as possible right?

[87storms]

Just now, eyewall said:

Raleigh, NC is reporting 19F and ZR this morning which is definitely rare.

That is nasty stuff. Can’t imagine how many power outages there’ll be and a cold week ahead at that. Not ideal.

[balltermen]

1 minute ago, nj2va said:

Just measured 4.3” so tracking exactly.  Sound of the snow has changed to an icier sound so I think the flip is likely soon…maybe an hour or so but don’t think we have that long.  Where in Alexandria?

close to braddock road metro. 

[Terpeast]

Changed back to all sn, still accumulating. 4.5”

[stormtracker]

Still SN+ here in DC...prepping for the flip soon

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[NorthArlington101]

[RevWarReenactor]

Looks like the heavy batch heading NE up 95 is the last hurrah before the flip. This was advertised on the HRRR that it would get heavy before the flip, just feels like its about 3 hours early. 

[bncho]

14 and heavy snow. Almost 6” on the ground

[WxUSAF]

Just now, eyewall said:

Raleigh, NC is reporting 19F and ZR this morning which is definitely rare.

Allan (Raleighwx on Twitter) said a lot of central NC stayed sleet most of the night. Maybe a glimpse at our future?

[SilentTalkie]

1 minute ago, RevWarReenactor said:

People seemed so focused on the snow that this is getting ignored. Hopefully the models are wrong, but that could be very bad.

Concern and forecasts from LWX seem to have downplayed the potential more and more over the past day. I’m very concerned looking at HRRR. Hope we stay sleet. 

[87storms]

Just now, Terpeast said:

Changed back to all sn, still accumulating. 4.5”

You’re one of my key upstream weather obs in this setup lol. Brunswick, too.