Jan 24-26 Weekend Snow and Sleetfest Model Thread Part Tres

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Nah it’s folding. Put this model in the dumpster. 
 

Gfs snowfall is around twice of Nams. If that's a fold, I'll take it every day.

[EastCoast NPZ]

I'm starting to think the 10-year and 2-day streak without a 6" snow here is going to live on.

[WxUSAF]

15 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Yep, @WxUSAF was 100% correct earlier in the week when he said a Nina was gonna fight back. Was hard to see every single failure mode teaming up against us but it did. Historic cold is the saving grace. One day our luck will flip, and even if we boom tomorrow, we did still fumble this one a bit.

 

11 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

It wasn't the nina. It took cosmically bad luck to ruin this setup. A stronger NS would've been fine if it wasn't for the Baja low becoming a neg tilt monster that trended north, I mean it was such an insane set of circumstances it cannot be blamed on Nina. Instead I think the only explanation is that we've been cursed by a witch or some sort of supernatural being.

I mean, potato/poh-ta-to when talking about bad luck in a Nina.  Northern stream just doesn't play nice!  Way too much shit going on and something almost always comes in to screw it up one way or another.  OH valley has climo AN precipitation and snow during a Nina for a reason.  We have BN precip/snow during a Nina for a reason.  Anomalous events can happen, but usually they don't.  Let's say DC reports 6" combined snow/sleet accumulation tomorrow.  That's a solid Nina storm!  But yeah, nowhere even close to historic.  

[NorthArlington101]

Nah it’s folding. Put this model in the dumpster. 
 

Disturbing seeing more FRZA than sleet being modeled a bit there. Really rooting against that.

[87storms]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Nah it’s folding. Put this model in the dumpster. 
 

Those are pretty minor ticks tho lol. I think that mid level warm air punch could still be over modeled. This is a professional airmass it’s up against. We’ll see soon lol

[Bob Chill]

3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

....that are much easier in Niños  See we don't have as much problem in those. And y'all wonder why I rant about ninas so much. Ninos are so much simpler with the wave interactions as long as the cold is there.

It's not that binary. Without blocking a nino will be stuffed with cut and rain events. Ninos are generally much less active so storms are far apart. Miss a few good chances and things don't look good in the end. Ninos aren't created equal. East based are not our friends nor are strong ninos. There's a sweet spot with west based/modiki mod ninos but they come along like 3 times in a person's life.

Ninos often run warmish and considering how warm has been working against us, I'm not sold that ninos in the future will be as kind as the past . Time will tell there.

The highest probability of snow in the MA is most correlated to the AO and that often works in any enso phase. The AO runs in some sort of longer term cycle that is hard to predict but easy to identify. We just came out of a long term +AO cycle. Seems like the cycle flips in 13 year cycles but thats just an oversimplified #. IMHO, last year and this year indicate that the AO cycle has probably flipped. For that reason alone, I'm pretty optimistic about MA snow chances over the balance of the next decade no matter what enso does. There will certainly be duds but overall I think there will be a string of memorable storms heading our way. 

 

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Gfs snowfall is around twice of Nams. If that's a fold, I'll take it every day.

It’s just cause the qpf thump is heavier, we need it to come in like a wall or we are cooked 

[WVclimo]

I'm just gonna hug this while we wait for the Euro

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z GFS storm totals 

[dailylurker]

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Disturbing seeing more FRZA than sleet being modeled a bit there. Really rooting against that.

The 34 degree rain is more concerning imo.

[nj2va]

Looks like about a 15z flip for DC on the GFS..assuming that we usually flip earlier than modeled (just like WAA precip starts earlier than modeled), its still a nice thump and I liked seeing it add ~0.1” QPF over 6z.  Still like my 6-10”.  Not sure why there’s such doom and gloom, it’s not like we’re staring down a rainstorm now.

[87storms]

2 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

I'm starting to think the 10-year and 2-day of streak without a 6" snow here is going to live on.

Idk…I think our areas are gonna get off the schneid (the wizards are another story). Good ratios will save us before the pingers arrive.

[snowfan]

1 minute ago, dailylurker said:

The 34 degree rain is more concerning imo.

There is no 34 degree rain on the gfs for anyone in MD west of the bay. The gfs on TT might be depicting rain via color but surface temps are in the 20s.

[baltosquid]

So Canadians just didn't run for some reason? Did I miss the discussion on that? Dissemination issues?

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

4 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Looks like about a 15z flip for DC on the GFS..assuming that we usually flip earlier than modeled (just like WAA precip starts earlier than modeled), its still a nice thump and I liked seeing it add ~0.1” QPF over 6z.  Still like my 6-10”.  Not sure why there’s such doom and gloom, it’s not like we’re staring down a rainstorm now.

Weenies gonna weenie.  Tomorrow gonna be an awesome winter storm let’s just enjoy it! 

[MillvilleWx]

4 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

The 34 degree rain is more concerning imo.

West of the Bay, even at my location on the water is not getting above freezing. I would be concerned about some light freezing rain or drizzle with this storm if I’m along and east of I-95, and especially  eastern AA county. 

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, baltosquid said:

So Canadians just didn't run for some reason? Did I miss the discussion on that? Dissemination issues?

Too cold up there today, model froze literally lol 

[dailylurker]

1 minute ago, snowfan said:

There is no 34 degree rain on the gfs for anyone in MD west of the bay. The gfs on TT might be depicting rain via color but surface temps are in the 20s.

I don't like it so close. One more move like that and i worry we 33 and rain east of 95. I'm buying a house on the Tug Hill if I have frozen mud next week lol. Sorry for banter. Just my concern. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

7 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Not sure why there’s such doom and gloom

NAM doubling down within range.

[baltosquid]

I sure hope the RRFS MPAS core is wrong. Gets crazy amounts of freezing rain all up the beltway. It's an 06z run as it is delayed but that would be devastating.

[EastCoast NPZ]

8 minutes ago, 87storms said:

Those are pretty minor ticks tho lol. I think that mid level warm air punch could still be over modeled. This is a professional airmass it’s up against. We’ll see soon lol

It seems from experience that the mix line always pushes faster and further north than modeled / forecasted.   I cannot recall one event where we got less mix than forecasted.

[snowfan]

Just now, dailylurker said:

I don't like it so close. One more move like that and i worry we 33 and rain east of 95. I'm buying a house on the Tug Hill if I have frozen mud next week lol. Sorry for banter. Just my concern. 

Its not close. Look under the hood. This appears to be the warmest panel on the gfs and its 26 at the surface in aa co.

 

 

[mitchnick]

Then there's always the FV3.

[dailylurker]

1 minute ago, snowfan said:

Its not close. Look under the hood. This appears to be the warmest panel on the gfs and its 26 at the surface in aa co.

 

 

Thanks guys. I appreciate info. I feel better about 33 and rain not haunting me this time lol. 

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

It seems from experience that the mix line always pushes faster and further north than modeled / forecasted.   I cannot recall one event where we got less mix than forecasted.

Feb 2015 had a west track with a Bermuda high and was all snow lol. 7" in my yard iirc lol. But other than that freakshow, mix lines slow down or stop for nobody when they are in the forecast area 

 

[Rittenhouse]

NAM is a bust for DC: a few hours of snow, followed by a brief period of heavy sleet, then several hours of light sleet and freezing drizzle. North of I-70 around Frederick, where the deformation axis sets up, does okay. I think the heavy precip will partly compensate for the warm nose there.

I'd caution against looking too closely at the colors on the simulated radar. For some, the changeover will be slower than the models are showing. It will come down to band placement. However, since the NAM is better at detecting these features, there is a high bust potential for DC right now. I think the GFS snow totals are likely on the high end for the coastal plain.

[Ji]

Then there's always the FV3.

Is that a real model? I’ve never used it

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

Is that a real model? I’ve never used it

It is. Here's the Rap currently updating out to 5pm

[Jersey Andrew]

Just now, mitchnick said:

It is. Here's the Rap currently updating out to 5pm

Are these short term models like HRRR and RAP based on NAM or GFS? 

[stormtracker]

Starting to join the red flag camp with @NorthArlington101.   I think it'll be a fun storm but wouldn't be shocked at something like 4 to 7".  Not just going just off the NAM, but thermals plus our most favorable models keep cutting back a bit.  Hope I'm wrong as hell.  I'm still going to enjoy it.  This will be our best winter event in a long time around here.