Jan 24-26 Weekend Snow and Sleetfest Model Thread Part Tres

[LeesburgWx]

So GFS and Euro are pretty much in line now. NAM needs to tighten up. Radar is blossoming out west. Going to be a long day of tracking 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Euro is gonna go down swinging at least if it’s wrong , I’m riding it to the end. 

[WxUSAF]

Love seeing the strong euro runs. I haven’t looked yet, but is there really any synoptic difference between the euro and the nams at this point? As of when I was looking yesterday, seems a lot just comes down to how heavy the precip is in the 9-18z period tomorrow. Nams seem uncharacteristically light with that. 24hrs out, euro *should* be kicking ass. 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Love seeing the strong euro runs. I haven’t looked yet, but is there really any synoptic difference between the euro and the nams at this point? As of when I was looking yesterday, seems a lot just comes down to how heavy the precip is in the 9-18z period tomorrow. Nams seem uncharacteristically light with that. 24hrs out, euro *should* be kicking ass. 

Never forget, the Euro is usually right when it screws us and wrong when it crushes us.

[peribonca]

Anyone else notice how models by 7am today show precip barely into west central Tennessee... And then actual ground truth. 

[mappy]

27 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

Hope it goes well! My daughter has her mock comp today too! Happy to get it in before the snow.

Are our kids at the same studio? lol 

[davidjd1114]

Honesty the precip field seems more south than projected


.

[Lucketts]

6/-8  

[CAPE]

Lovely to wake up and read this from Mt Holly 

The narrow corridor of highest ice accumulations has shifted southeast, now focused over South Jersey, central Delaware, and the Eastern Shore of Maryland.

[LP08]

Only 9 after a high yesterday here of 45.  Quite a shock to the system!

[LeesburgWx]

1 minute ago, LP08 said:

Only 9 after a high yesterday here of 45.  Quite a shock to the system!

5 here right now. Hoping to get below zero Monday night

[dailylurker]

Could we get an observation thread? Those of us that are trying to obsess over every NAM run don't care what your temp is lol

[GreyHat]

Just now, dailylurker said:

Could we get an observation thread? Those of us that are trying to obsess over every NAM run don't care what your temp is lol

There is one already 

[Warm Nose]

5 degrees here. Everything is frozen like a rock. 
Any liquid is gonna freeze very, very fast. 

[Chris78]

I see it's -2 up at Camp David

0 here in Smithsburg 

[snowfan]

The WPC prob look good to me. Most are going to get >= 4”, many have that chance at 6, and the area for 8 has moved to the favored areas.

 

[mitchnick]

Latest long range Rap 9z

[GreyHat]

Didn't realize that Delaware has State of Emergency that goes into effect 12:01 Sunday 25th. 

[mitchnick]

Euro snow depth as of 7am Monday. Mix or not, that's still a lot of snow remaining on the ground after the storm. 

[Buddy1987]

Am I radar hallucinating already?! The band of snow developing off the Jackson KY radar pushing into VA looks legit. 

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Euro snow depth as of 7am Monday. Mix or not, that's still a lot of snow remaining on the ground after the storm. 

Yep, something tells me this is a now cast event. I think the warm nose is overdone. If the euro is right with the freezing rain, this place shuts down for a week or more. That damn artic air ain’t playing 

[WxUSAF]

57 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Love seeing the strong euro runs. I haven’t looked yet, but is there really any synoptic difference between the euro and the nams at this point? As of when I was looking yesterday, seems a lot just comes down to how heavy the precip is in the 9-18z period tomorrow. Nams seem uncharacteristically light with that. 24hrs out, euro *should* be kicking ass. 

Not the NAM, but same idea here. Quick glance looks like NAM is in the same camp as RRFS with 850 low and wind.

 

[mitchnick]

Nice red sky in the northern horizon at sunrise this morning. Nothing beats the red sky the morning of the 1/16 blizzard. I had a crummy phone at the time so the pics don't do it just, plus I was driving so...

[GreyHat]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Nice red sky in the northern horizon at sunrise this morning. Nothing beats the red sky the morning of the 1/16 blizzard. I had a crummy phone at the time so the pics don't do it just, plus I was driving so...

I'm sure the photos of the ice will be something.

[SnowenOutThere]

7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Not the NAM, but same idea here. Quick glance looks like NAM is in the same camp as RRFS with 850 low and wind.

 

Yep, that’s what I’ve been watching for the past two days to know if a model will be north or south. That said, doesn’t really help us pick out what is more likely! 

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, GreyHat said:

I'm sure the photos of the ice will be something.

Got my d850 ready. Will clear my memory cards and charge my spare batteries today. 

[Terpeast]

8/-8

looks like euro/gfs are in agreement… and at odds with nam/rrfs

[nj2va]

11/-9 and a whopping -7/-12 at Deep Creek.

Euro was a beaut to wake up to.  

[mitchnick]

Pretty good radar here and had sectors for close-up views. It's a small screen on mobile until you turn your phone sideways. 

https://cyclonicwx.com/radar/us/

[Eskimo Joe]

It's cold folks