January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage Thread 2

[Weather Will]

GFS is another crush job.

[Interstate]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

RGEM--small version of the CMC basically

I thought it was the newer version of the RGEM

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

DC flips by 78 but we'd still be happy. 8" non-Kuchera. 

probably back to snow on on by 87

[LP08]

Kuchera is like 10-15 S to N from EZF up

[osfan24]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

sleet line doesn't really move from here the rest of the run

Seems like a hold then. Sleet line is just southeast of my location which is exactly like it was at 12z.

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, Interstate said:

I thought it was the newer version of the RGEM

Let me shut up, lol

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, stormtracker said:

probably back to snow after like 84

Yeah it actually gets the coastal going. 

[Nomz]

GFS sticks to its guns basically. Still not believing it.

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, stormtracker said:

probably back to snow on on by 87

Correct

[jayyy]

It has the best overall outcome for the majority of the region. Ukmet kinda supports it. Not the best combo lol

Gotta know the GFS very likely isn’t the ultimate outcome, but perhaps something in between the GFS and euro is still possible.

[Scraff]

Paging Dr @NorthArlington101  Need clown maps stat!

[NorthArlington101]

Gonna give ya'll the pretty maps then go meet @nw baltimore wx and @nj2va at a happy hour... still not too late to join us at Succotash in 20m!

[Fozz]

47 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Nina MECS for us are really rare for a reason. Northern stream just so rarely plays nice. This is still going to be a good or great storm though! Still probably top tier for a Nina.

Yes, aside from 1996 this is as good as it gets for a Nina. And there will quite possibly be more storms to come, not to mention a deep freeze that may last for weeks.

The extended range keeps the block remarkably stable and doesn’t seem to have any meaningful warmup in sight, so any snow or sleet that falls will probably last a long time.

[stormtracker]

GFS looks to close out the show at 7am Monday or so

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, Scraff said:

Paging Dr @NorthArlington101  Need clown maps stat!

[jayyy]

Back to good snows 9z Monday. What is going on with the GFS? Coastal love?

[WxUSAF]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

It has the best overall outcome for the majority of the region. Ukmet kinda supports it. Not the best combo lol

Might weenie myself for this, but seems like other 18z runs are at least taking a partial step toward the GFS with separating the 2 parts more? But yeah, hard to trust GFS thermal and the strong second part isn’t showing up in other guidance really.

[Ji]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Still going strong at 6z....man

for the love of Marcus and dryness...please for once be right in the history

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

[Fozz]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Correct

Yeah when I saw that early redevelopment from TN to the Carolina coast, I knew it was a good sign.

[baltosquid]

Probably even better than 12z with the coastal action. Jeez. It is probably the most confidently wrong it has ever been, but I guess the ICON and the American mesos did give it a very slight nod but they just handle the primary and transfer so much differently, along with everyone else. Can’t believe it unfortunately but I want it real bad.

[schinz]

So this is the question I ask myself.  In the last 12 hours have all the other models started, in even the slightest way, to move towards the GFS, or has the GFS moved towards all the other models?

 

[LeesburgWx]

What a run. Wrecked NW if the city. I agree with Ji. If it’s wrong at 48 hours, then why would we still be running it?

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, Ji said:

for the love of Marcus and dryness...please for once be right in the history

Wait, who? Lol

[Amped]

Goofus doing Goofus things.

[NorthArlington101]

Looks like my job got stolen. I'll let @SnowenOutThere post the final totals at hr96. It did cut back a bit near Richmond/SE Virginia, so it's hopefully the start toward a compromise-ish solution? But technically it's better than 12z, so I guess the camps widened in some respects.

[stormtracker]

Just now, Ji said:

for the love of Marcus and dryness...please for once be right in the history

Don't get vested man.  It's hard.  I know I want to, but bring yourself back to reality.  It's the GFS.    The GFS vs the Euro and pretty much everything else.   It's not going to happen.   

[Scraff]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

I knew it! Happy hour always delivers—no matter how right or wrong it is! 

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z GFS

 

 

 

 

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Looks like my job got stolen. I'll let @SnowenOutThere post the final totals at hr96. It did cut back a bit near Richmond/SE Virginia, so it's hopefully the start toward a compromise-ish solution? But technically it's better than 12z, so I guess the camps widened in some respects.

meh too slow - no map before hr96 is real!!