January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage Thread 2

[TSG]

2 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

It tends to excel at thermal profiles 

Yeah at or under 24 hrs. It's still in lalaland at this range. It's a lesson learned literally every storm and somehow forgotten by the next one 

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

My colleagues at LWX are way too high on snow/sleet accums right now imo. NAM Nest is still outside its full useful range, but not exactly a beacon of positivity on that 12z run. We shall see. That front end thump trending later has been a boon to this forecast. That needed to show up between 00-06z and not 06-12z. I’ll have a forecast later today. Fighting a monster headache this morning. 

Last negative nancy post then I'll try and dial it in - we keep pushing this storm back. It was a Friday night storm at one point! Now we're not really getting going til after midnight, and even then we don't seem to get rates til maybe 4am. Really, really, annoying. 

[MillvilleWx]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Last negative nancy post then I'll try and dial it in - we keep pushing this storm back. It was a Friday night storm at one point! Now we're not really getting going til after midnight, and even then we don't seem to get rates til maybe 4am. Really, really, annoying. 

That’s actually been the one thing that’s driving me nuts. I know @WxUSAF has joked about it in recent days, but sort of true at this point. Is what it is. I think this will end up being a monster sleet bomb south of I-66 at this juncture. Snow will rip in VA for a time though, so it’ll be one heck of a mess down there. 

[Eskimo Joe]

RE: snow:water ratio forecasting. Thought this would be a good book mark for folks.

 

 

[Buddy1987]

2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

That’s actually been the one thing that’s driving me nuts. I know @WxUSAF has joked about it in recent days, but sort of true at this point. Is what it is. I think this will end up being a monster sleet bomb south of I-66 at this juncture. Snow will rip in VA for a time though, so it’ll be one heck of a mess down there. 

2'' of qpf and a sleet bomb is hard to picture as to what that even looks like outside. Pretty wild stuff.

[clskinsfan]

RGEM a touch colder than 6Z. Minor. But every little bit should help.

[SnowenOutThere]

29 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I mean here is why I'm not happy regardless of whatever anyone says. Seeing the cushion to the SE of DC erode. We've still got like a day for this to fully evaporate. Doesn't work for me

9 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Low end map from LWX

This is rather concerning. I really thought a low end forecast would be roughly 4 inches of sleet/snow for Nova down along the wedge to Cvill. We need the NAM to fold, and for every run where it doesn't it gets more and more worrying. 

[SnowGolfBro]

Any chance the warm layers are being overdone? Is it possible to have a snow/sleet mix after the flip that os more like 6-1 ratio wise?

[MillvilleWx]

Just now, Buddy1987 said:

2'' of qpf and a sleet bomb is hard to picture as to what that even looks like outside. Pretty wild stuff.

It’s loud, I can tell you that much. Have been through a couple. Friends at college went through VDay 2007 up in PA with 5+” of sleet. They said it sounded like a barrage of BB’s for hours on end hitting the house. Crazy 

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

This is rather concerning. I really thought a low end forecast would be roughly 4 inches of sleet/snow for Nova down along the wedge to Cvill. We need the NAM to fold, and for every run where it doesn't it gets more and more worrying. 

4" of snow and sleet is still probably a good bar... I mean the 12k gets you 4" of sleet alone.

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, MillvilleWx said:

It’s loud, I can tell you that much. Have been through a couple. Friends at college went through VDay 2007 up in PA with 5+” of sleet. They said it sounded like a barrage of BB’s for hours on end hitting the house. Crazy 

How well was that one modeled a day or two before? Was the amount of sleet a surprise?

[WesternFringe]

3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

That’s actually been the one thing that’s driving me nuts. I know @WxUSAF has joked about it in recent days, but sort of true at this point. Is what it is. I think this will end up being a monster sleet bomb south of I-66 at this juncture. Snow will rip in VA for a time though, so it’ll be one heck of a mess down there. 

Yes and no.  It is somewhat elevation dependent as those due east of me with little elevation will have more sleet compared to folks at 1500-2000' around here.  At least that is nearly always how it works out.

[clskinsfan]

2 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

Any chance the warm layers are being overdone? Is it possible to have a snow/sleet mix after the flip that os more like 6-1 ratio wise?

Usually once you mix you are minutes away from going all sleet anyways.

[konksw]

Winter Storm Warning

Severity: Severe

Significant threat to life or property

Weather Event Onset

11:00 PM (EST), January 24

Description

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations between 7 and 14 inches, with highest in the far northern and western suburbs of Washington and Baltimore. Ice accumulations between one and two tenths of an inch.

* WHERE...Portions of DC, central, northeast, and northern Maryland, and northern Virginia.

* WHEN...From 11 PM Saturday to 4 AM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will likely overspread the area Saturday night, becoming heavy at times with rates of one to two inches per hour possible at times. A mix with sleet or freezing rain is expected Sunday. Significant icing is possible especially south of Highway 50. Visibility of one-quarter mile or less is possible at times. A prolonged period wind chills in the teens and single digits is likely beginning this evening and lasting through the middle of next week, with sub-zero wind chills possible at times.

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

4" of snow and sleet is still probably a good bar... I mean the 12k gets you 4" of sleet alone.

Hence about 8 inches of something that is an incased dangerous mess for 7 days

[TSSN+]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1003 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026

MDZ003>005-VAZ028-030-031-040-501-505-WVZ050>053-232315-
/O.UPG.KLWX.WS.A.0001.260124T2100Z-260126T0900Z/
/O.NEW.KLWX.WS.W.0001.260125T0400Z-260126T0900Z/
Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Frederick VA-Warren-Clarke-
Rappahannock-Northern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-Hampshire-Morgan-
Berkeley-Jefferson-
1003 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet
  accumulations between 12 and 18 inches, with highest amounts north
  and west of US-340. Ice accumulations up to two tenths of an inch,
  mainly south and east of US-340.

* WHERE...Portions of north central Maryland, northern and northwest
  Virginia, and eastern and panhandle West Virginia.

* WHEN...From 11 PM Saturday to 4 AM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will likely overspread the area Saturday
  night, becoming heavy at times with rates of one to two inches per
  hour possible at times. A mix with sleet or freezing rain is
  expected Sunday. Visibility of one-quarter mile or less is
  possible at times. A prolonged period very cold wind chills is
  likely beginning Friday evening and lasting through the middle of
  next week.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for
the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

Persons should consider delaying all travel. Motorists should use
extreme caution if travel is absolutely necessary.

&&

$$

 

[87storms]

5 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

That’s actually been the one thing that’s driving me nuts. I know @WxUSAF has joked about it in recent days, but sort of true at this point. Is what it is. I think this will end up being a monster sleet bomb south of I-66 at this juncture. Snow will rip in VA for a time though, so it’ll be one heck of a mess down there. 

I generally preferred this storm to be later to coincide with the next, more rock solid shot of cold, but also didn’t expect the Baja low to unravel like a slingshot towards Pittsburgh lol.

[psuhoffman]

29 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

I’m taking the positives out of it, because I agree it was a fair bit better in a lot of ways. This anomalous airmass is extremely impressive and I know warm air to tongues can easily screw the mid levels, but we don’t have a screaming jet sending in a firehouse here like we have sometimes to just send it all to shit.

If I am putting my glass half full glasses on, both the 12k and 3k NAM are now very close to a HUGE event for our area...it would only take like a 30 mile adjustment southeast of the snow/sleet line during the 6 hour critical period Sunday midday for our area to go from 6-7" to 15" of snow!  It's really close...the warm layer is not very big in our area...so as is it's not a great run, it's within a reasonable adjustment from being much much better.  

[Buddy1987]

@Bob Chillif the RGEM is believable it is an absolute beatdown and has been for multiple runs in a row down here. I've always known it to be a cold-er outlier though so NAM would probably be more believable regarding thermals.

[MillvilleWx]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

How well was that one modeled a day or two before? Was the amount of sleet a surprise?

It was to a degree. They expected some sleet but also more snow and it became evident it was going to be a monster sleet storm inside 24hrs. Models weren’t as good back then, so it happened, but there was always an indication. Bottom line is WAA aloft tends to be robust when you have phasing elements well to our west. This wasn’t textbook for us. It was back further west, but we have serious cold leading in, so unlike other setups where the ground temps even warm to freezing or slightly above, they’ll stay frigid, so impacts will still be high. It’ll be more sleet than we care for at this rate, and it just is what it is. Need that front end piece to ramp up and really deliver to fight back the warm nose intrusion between 850-700mb, which could still happen. 

[psuhoffman]

29 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Definitely starting to get more of that gfs look. Just needs to cool off/shift se a little more.

 

Yea as I said to DD, the good news from this run was while it didn't actually help us as is...the trends took it close to being a big deal...it's one of those things where it needs to reach a critical tipping point and this got most of the way there...but not enough to significantly change the results...one more shift exactly like this and it would!  We were much much closer to a significant snow event here than on the previous run, it just didn't quite get there.  SO we still end up sleeting for the same amount of time...but if you look at the thermal profile...its way closer to snow during the day SUnday than it was on the last run 

[LP08]

Rgem looks good…maybe a touch warmer above but good precip through the critical time .

[SnowenOutThere]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

If I am putting my glass half full glasses on, both the 12k and 3k NAM are now very close to a HUGE event for our area...it would only take like a 30 mile adjustment southeast of the snow/sleet line during the 6 hour critical period Sunday midday for our area to go from 6-7" to 15" of snow!  It's really close...the warm layer is not very big in our area...so as is it's not a great run, it's within a reasonable adjustment from being much much better.  

My bigger issue with the NAM runs is how dry they are. They don't even get me over 1 qdf while every other model is going 1.5-2in. I think that is a failing of the NAM and not everyone else, the thermals could be related to that with evap cooling. As of now I'm more inclined to believe the HRRR output as it seems more in line with other guidance.  

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z RRFS

[MillvilleWx]

5 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

Yes and no.  It is somewhat elevation dependent as those due east of me with little elevation will have more sleet compared to folks at 1500-2000' around here.  At least that is nearly always how it works out.

True. Definitely did a broad brush with my VA comment. I think your area in the BR should cash a good amount of snow before any flip. It’ll be quite a storm down there. Juiced QPF for sure. I still think you’ll end up with 6-10” for your elevation before a flip. 

[LeesburgWx]

4 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1003 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026

MDZ003>005-VAZ028-030-031-040-501-505-WVZ050>053-232315-
/O.UPG.KLWX.WS.A.0001.260124T2100Z-260126T0900Z/
/O.NEW.KLWX.WS.W.0001.260125T0400Z-260126T0900Z/
Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Frederick VA-Warren-Clarke-
Rappahannock-Northern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-Hampshire-Morgan-
Berkeley-Jefferson-
1003 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet
  accumulations between 12 and 18 inches, with highest amounts north
  and west of US-340. Ice accumulations up to two tenths of an inch,
  mainly south and east of US-340.

* WHERE...Portions of north central Maryland, northern and northwest
  Virginia, and eastern and panhandle West Virginia.

* WHEN...From 11 PM Saturday to 4 AM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will likely overspread the area Saturday
  night, becoming heavy at times with rates of one to two inches per
  hour possible at times. A mix with sleet or freezing rain is
  expected Sunday. Visibility of one-quarter mile or less is
  possible at times. A prolonged period very cold wind chills is
  likely beginning Friday evening and lasting through the middle of
  next week.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for
the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

Persons should consider delaying all travel. Motorists should use
extreme caution if travel is absolutely necessary.

&&

$$

 

Wow, going for the beat down with this forecast. impressive

[RevWarReenactor]

Anyone else notice the NAM has a West/East transition to sleet whereas basically all other guidance has a NE/SW orientation.

Whats that about?

[87storms]

Side note: The potential blizzard next weekend shown on the 6z gfs looks pretty cool, though.

Regarding this storm…nowcasting will be fun…especially the water vapor loop once this system sparks in the Deep South.

 

[Bob Chill]

16 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

2'' of qpf and a sleet bomb is hard to picture as to what that even looks like outside. Pretty wild stuff.

Once you accept it for what it is, it's a blast... literally... lol

I loved 2007. It was wild. Never saw sleet pile up like that before and once I accepted the forecast snow was off the table I embraced and enjoyed it. This storm will be an absolute glacier Tuesday morning down here no matter what happens. If you squint, sleet looks just like snow on the ground too hahaha

[caviman2201]

Just noticed something on Pivotal that you don't see every day... 

10:1 12z 12k NAM:


vs Snow Depth 12z 12k NAM:



How often does the snow depth map look more impressive than the 10:1 snowfall map?  I'm guessing the depth includes sleet but 10:1 does not?