January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage Thread 2

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, schinz said:

So this is the question I ask myself.  In the last 12 hours have all the other models started, in even the slightest way, to move towards the GFS, or has the GFS moved towards all the other models?

 

Gfs hasn’t moved at all really

[baltosquid]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Might weenie myself for this, but seems like other 18z runs are at least taking a partial step toward the GFS with separating the 2 parts more? But yeah, hard to trust GFS thermal and the strong second part isn’t showing up in other guidance really.

Yup, ninja’d me… it may be right about some more disjointing in the storm but it is the only one that makes the second part do anything but dump sleet. However, I guess you could say disjointing, even with a bad follow-up still, would be the first step towards it.

[IceCAPS]

2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

I'd be A-Okay with this outcome (other than the shoveling in my future).  Who's coming with me?  Book it!

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Gfs hasn’t moved at all really

Last minute cave then?

[LeesburgWx]

Serious question, when was the last time the GFS led the way over the euro? I guess, the last euro cave to the GFS? If the answer is never, just let me know

[CAPE]

Not sure anyone would be complaining if HH GFS worked out. 

[understudyhero]

4 minutes ago, Nomz said:

GFS sticks to its guns basically. Still not believing it.

Only one model can be the most correct - and sadly ALL models can be incorrect. 

In the long run this one might as well be the faith we put everything into using experience, hope, childlike enthusiasm and everything that comes with wishing snow into existence. 

[WxUSAF]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Might weenie myself for this, but seems like other 18z runs are at least taking a partial step toward the GFS with separating the 2 parts more? But yeah, hard to trust GFS thermal and the strong second part isn’t showing up in other guidance really.

GFS kills the Apps running low around Roanoke. Hands it off to the coastal and that keeps precip going. It’s the only model I’ve seen with that. 

[understudyhero]

1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said:

Serious question, when was the last time the GFS led the way over the euro? I guess, the last euro cave to the GFS? If the answer is never, just let me know

Alternatively , when was the last time the Euro was correct in these cases? Wasn't it batting pretty badly in November/December this winter?

[Eskimo Joe]

5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

GFS looks to close out the show at 7am Monday or so

In GFS we trust. Heavens yes. All snow with no precip issues.

[Buddy1987]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

GFS kills the Apps running low around Roanoke. Hands it off to the coastal and that keeps precip going. It’s the only model I’ve seen with that. 

Doesn’t it make the most logical sense though? Cold dense air redirecting a dying primary?

[bncho]

On 1/13/2026 at 5:51 PM, NorthArlington101 said:

1/13/26 GFS Storm of the Decade Run

GFS had the right idea. Maybe QPF on the northern side was slightly overdone.

[WxUSAF]

Just now, Buddy1987 said:

Doesn’t it make the most logical sense though? Cold dense air redirecting a dying primary?

Yeah but that’s an enormous shortwave trough. AIGFS looks more or less like the other model consensus

[hstorm]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

GFS kills the Apps running low around Roanoke. Hands it off to the coastal and that keeps precip going. It’s the only model I’ve seen with that. 

That's how we roll in America.  Canadians and Ukies and Euros just can't grasp it.  

[Duca892]

The GFS doubling down and dropping one of its biggest runs yet is the most GFS thing ever. Gives everyone the sliver of hope before it folds by 12z tomorrow. 

[mappy]

Yall are exhausting 

[NorthArlington101]

GFS had the right idea. Maybe QPF on the northern side was slightly overdone.

I’m on mobile so I can’t move this to banter but it’s HILARIOUS how this was an awesome, epic fantasy run and now we’re gonna be miserable if this is the outcome. Perspective shifting, honestly

[TSSN+]

Last 4 runs 

[jayyy]

Doesn’t it make the most logical sense though? Cold dense air redirecting a dying primary?

Both scenarios make sense depending on how things unfold out West. GFS outcome really isn’t outlandish, but it’s on an island, which makes it harder to believe. Only thing I’d say is that other 18z models moved towards the GFS at H5, not the other way around. Anyone’s guess at this point. 00z should narrow the goal posts

[SnowGolfBro]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Last 4 runs 

Solid as a rock. Why run the apps into a 1040+cold high when you can transfer to open waters and have smooth sailing!

[stormtracker]

7 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Gfs hasn’t moved at all really

It hasn't.  It's strange because it's usually playing catchup and never leading the way.  I expect a full cave tonight.

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Last 4 runs 

GFS just locks that high in over the St. Lawrence Valley every run.

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 minute ago, Duca892 said:

The GFS doubling down and dropping one of its biggest runs yet is the most GFS thing ever. Gives everyone the sliver of hope before it folds by 12z tomorrow. 

It’s not really a Lucy if everyone sees it coming and takes with a grain of salt.

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I’m on mobile so I can’t move this to banter but it’s HILARIOUS how this was an awesome, epic fantasy run and now we’re gonna be miserable if this is the outcome. Perspective shifting, honestly

Wait, people are complaining about this run?!!?   Jesus.  I pray it happens.  I'm just being realistic.  GFS usually is a follower, not a leader.

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

It hasn't.  It's strange because it's usually playing catchup and never leading the way.  I expect a full cave tonight.

Yeah if it doesn't cave tonight and other models don't start caving to it, then the GFS is in even worse shape than ever, lol

[WxUSAF]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Last 4 runs 

 

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

It hasn't.  It's strange because it's usually playing catchup and never leading the way.  I expect a full cave tonight.

Lol if anything it’s moving farther from the other model consensus. Will it fold in one dramatic shift? Or will all other guidance bow to its superior predictions!??!?!

[Alfoman]

Just now, stormtracker said:

It hasn't.  It's strange because it's usually playing catchup and never leading the way.  I expect a full cave tonight.

So do I but damn it do I want to see the GFS get a win here. Just would be so interesting (and on brand) to have it slow down and separate the baja energy a little more each run for it to just wildly swing towards the Euro's depiction all of a sudden within 60 hours.   

[Buddy1987]

@WxUSAFdid gfs receive an upgrade? It usually sucks at cad. Normally it’d be ramming the primary up into Erie PA by now. 

[Terpeast]

I was hoping to see some more consensus with either gfs caving to other guidance, or both sides meeting in the middle. 

But they could not be further apart. We may have to wait until 0z tonight to see where this is heading. 

[schinz]

3 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Both scenarios make sense depending on how things unfold out West. GFS outcome really isn’t outlandish, but it’s on an island, which makes it harder to believe. Only thing I’d say is that other 18z models moved towards the GFS at H5, not the other way around. Anyone’s guess at this point. 00z should narrow the goal posts

That was exactly my point in asking what I did about whether the other models have moved toward the GFS or the other way around.  I kept reading "looks more like the GFS" but I never heard anyone say the GFS looked any more like the other models.