January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage Thread 2

[stormtracker]

MUCH wetter run for us, although obv not all snow 

[JenkinsJinkies]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

15”ish kuchie for DC + mixing

That’s near 2016 level. If the bleeding has stopped and continues to do so by 6z then count me back in.

[Maestrobjwa]

Don't care--SOLD!

[baltosquid]

Just now, stormtracker said:

A lot more action on the exit this run, and I think we could switch back to snow, at least the metros.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Just now, JenkinsJinkies said:

That’s near 2016 level. If the bleeding has stopped and continues to do so by 6z then count me back in.

I thought you were out?

[NorthArlington101]

Hope that new recon data meant something 

[SnowenOutThere]

Storm exiting

[wxdude64]

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Snow total though hour 93 (which is when I mix)

At Fairfax or UVA?

[T. August]

So close to all snow in dc. Just misses the pivot by 30 miles

[stormtracker]

Still going at 108..thermals collapsing east

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, wxdude64 said:

At Fairfax or UVA?

For now assume all my posts are made with me being at UVA

[jaydreb]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Hope that new recon data meant something 

Is Kuchera supposed to subtract out sleet?

[Solution Man]

DC area goes back to snow at 102

[weathercoins]

1 minute ago, jaydreb said:

Verbatim it’s like 8” of snow in DC metro before mixing makes its way in.  

Seems low unless you think mixing comes in before 90?

[NorthArlington101]

Is Kuchera supposed to subtract out sleet?

In theory, yes. I’d tag @high risk for confirmation

[stormtracker]

Was looking for that post that said it's only 8".  Was gonna reply. "there's still time to delete this"

[feloniousq]

4 inches of sleet and an inch of freezing rain on top in Raleigh and Charlotte is pretty wild

[Scraff]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Hope that new recon data meant something 

We abscond! Boom!!

[midatlanticweather]

Dang... That is a lot of moisture. Most I have seen on a map since last summer. Let's hope for more cold and that much juice going forwards. Goodness. We do not need more precip than that if we can get the powder to last longer. 

[nj2va]

3 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

Verbatim it’s like 8” of snow in DC metro before mixing makes its way in.  

Huh?

[SnowGolfBro]

12-18 for the 95 corridor with 18-24+ in the north and west burbs sounds like our climo for a MECS/HECS. Which is basically what King GFS is SNOWING

[jaydreb]

1 minute ago, weathercoins said:

Seems low unless you think mixing comes in before 90?

Could be low.  This is through 90 (10-1 ratio). 

[NorthArlington101]

10:1 if you are a ratio skeptic. Also was probably .5” more on the other Kuchie maps. Whoops. 

[Maestrobjwa]

Absolutely weenie run there

[baltosquid]

Wants to get Baltimore to nearly 20 on Kuchera with coastal stuff.

[Solution Man]

Good trend for now, Dr. No is in the batters box. I guess TWC hugs the GFS

[stormtracker]

4 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

Verbatim it’s like 8” of snow in DC metro before mixing makes its way in.  

You can still delete this

[clskinsfan]

The cutoff line between snow and sleet is remarkably similar to the Euro now. It is a complete beatdown for all of us.

[SnowenOutThere]

For those wondering how the GFS did it. The GFS had better confluence, a low that ejected a bit further south and resisted the phase, a less powerful NS, and a more eastern NS. If the Euro shows any one of these things we should hopefully get a further south solution.

[Alfoman]

That cutoff being 30-40 miles from DC proper would be an absolute nail biting nowcast the day of the storm. Nice and easy isn't as exciting, as they say!