TSSN+ Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 All models going one way to more amped. Gfs heading toward the de amp lol. Better watch out leave any more of that SW behind it becomes a whiff to the south the some the ens had. But clearly I think the gfs is on crack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 go with euro ai that's the best model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 The problem is...it's the GFS. Can't hate it when it shows something bad and love it when it shows something good. We all know how this ends. It's an outlier. And that makes me sad. And drink. 4 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: I thought that data wouldn't be ready until 0z tomorrow night? I believe it was 0z 1/22 (tonight) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, JenkinsJinkies said: Is it still minimal or are we losing a more significant amount of snow to it? I think the icon is the only one that gets us under 10 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Well, tonight truly will be telling....first runs with the extra spicy data. The most anticipated run since 12 minutes ago. I know the AFD today mention the “barren” area for the northern stream, but does anyone know when that will be well-sampled? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I thought that data wouldn't be ready until 0z tomorrow night? I thought 0z 1/22 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: I thought that data wouldn't be ready until 0z tomorrow night? Tonight, unless I'm mistaken. Or that was what Millersville or one of the other Red Taggers was saying yesterday, anyway. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Icon children (ensembles) say "forget my old man, my real father is the Gfs." 12 4 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Please God let the GFS be right for once! Central VA back in mostly Snow....dont buy it 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 5 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: We in SW VA LOVE the GFS! @Bob Chilllooking nice. 2" qpf and all snow... idk man. Grape Nut dump trucks on all other models but the gfs found a way to go all snow... lol. I'll take the under and probably A LOT under but there's a chance or something 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deep Creek Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: 18z GFS crushes central and southern Virginia with sleet and ZR overnight. Legitimate ice storm. Does it? Asking seriously because the snow and qpf map just posted wouldn’t indicate that. RIC at about 17” of snow at 1.35” qpf…where in the world is any qpf left for ice? edited to say that does the snow map include sleet? Just seems like it would be way overstating snow if there was significant ice as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: I thought 0z 1/22 They flying now so I’d think tonight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: The problem is...it's the GFS. Can't hate it when it shows something bad and love it when it shows something good. We all know how this ends. It's an outlier. And that makes me sad. And drink. GFS is clearly an outlier in one way, but still looks closer to the European consensus than the icon. Still really hard to bet against the Eps and the euro AI when they are in close agreement like this. Blend those two and let it ride. 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: GFS is clearly an outlier in one way, but still looks closer to the European consensus than the icon. Still really hard to bet against the Eps and the euro AI when they are in close agreement like this. Blend those two and let it ride. The ai gfs looked point on to euro/euro ai 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, IronTy said: Guys, I'm tired. I'm not sure my heart can take much more of this hobby. I mean rug pull chances are declining and will accelerate their decline if nothing significantly changes between now and tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: GFS is clearly an outlier in one way, but still looks closer to the European consensus than the icon. Still really hard to bet against the Eps and the euro AI when they are in close agreement like this. Blend those two and let it ride. Yeah that's more or less what I was thinking but didn't word it as well earlier. I thought the GFS was relatively "closer" to the Euro which itself was pretty good at 12Z. The ICON is far different than either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LordBaltimore Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Anyone know if other models are getting extra data sampling the baja low or just GFS? Sometimes good observations outweigh model accuracy and I'm unsure if this is something that would require knobs to be turned at other met centers who probably don't care as much about a CONUS event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Andrew Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, IronTy said: Guys, I'm tired. I'm not sure my heart can take much more of this hobby. If all the models lined up in unison, it would be no fun. This is the great chase for 2010,2016, or Knickerbocker redux. The fact we have pulled off some monsters in our lifetime makes it more interesting to follow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Its a Breeze Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 6 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said: Is it still minimal or are we losing a more significant amount of snow to it? Minimal. Minimal enough to say GFS isn't really an outlier.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 3 minutes ago, IronTy said: Guys, I'm tired. I'm not sure my heart can take much more of this hobby. It's only 3 more days man. You can make it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: GFS is clearly an outlier in one way, but still looks closer to the European consensus than the icon. Still really hard to bet against the Eps and the euro AI when they are in close agreement like this. Blend those two and let it ride. This!! All winter the AI been balls on under 120 hrs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 20 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Double barrel highs 1044 and 1045 So double barrel highs 1044 and 1045.... it appears that the low is maybe trying to find a weakness in the ridge and head in that direction. So there for not a complete wall to wall of cold high pressure but rather a double high that has a weakness which the primary is moving towards. I think that needs to fuse together to prevent the north trend from continuing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, Warm Nose said: None of the models today have incorporated the sampled data yet. It won’t even be in the 0Z tonight. It will be in tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreyHat Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 19 minutes ago, Weather Will said: 1, 4 Beats all that ice that was being shown earlier. Models have been all over. I guess things won't be worked out till Friday, the way things are going . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, GreyHat said: Beats all that ice that was being shown earlier. Models have been all over. I guess things won't be worked out till Friday, the way things are going . We will know Monday. For sure. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, ravensrule said: It won’t even be in the 0Z tonight. It will be in tomorrow. I thought it was going to be used for 00z tonight 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said: I thought it was going to be used for 00z tonight I think they're actually doing the sampling tonight for the models to use tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 4 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: I thought it was going to be used for 00z tonight As I recall, the Mets yesterday said 00z Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 For clarity sake Data ingest is ONGOING and will be available for the 00z runs TONIGHT (00z 1/22) There has been NO RECON DATA FOR TODAY (1/21). Thanks 29 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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