January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage Thread 2

[TSSN+]

All models going one way to more amped. Gfs heading toward the de amp lol. Better watch out leave any more of that SW behind it becomes a whiff to the south the some the ens had. But clearly I think the gfs is on crack. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

go with euro ai that's the best model

[stormtracker]

The problem is...it's the GFS.  Can't hate it when it shows something bad and love it when it shows something good.  We all know how this ends.   It's an outlier.   

And that makes me sad.  And drink.

[T. August]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

I thought that data wouldn't be ready until 0z tomorrow night?

I believe it was 0z 1/22 (tonight)

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Is it still minimal or are we losing a more significant amount of snow to it? 

I think the icon is the only one that gets us under 10 inches. 

[nw baltimore wx]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Well, tonight truly will be telling....first runs with the extra spicy data.    The most anticipated run since 12 minutes ago.

I know the AFD today mention the “barren” area for the northern stream, but does anyone know when that will be well-sampled?

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I thought that data wouldn't be ready until 0z tomorrow night?

I thought 0z 1/22

[TowsonWeather]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I thought that data wouldn't be ready until 0z tomorrow night?

Tonight, unless I'm mistaken. Or that was what Millersville or one of the other Red Taggers was saying yesterday, anyway.

[mitchnick]

Icon children (ensembles) say "forget my old man, my real father is the Gfs."

[Shad]

Please God let the GFS be right for once!  Central VA back in mostly Snow....dont buy it

[Bob Chill]

5 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

We in SW VA LOVE the GFS! @Bob Chilllooking nice. 

2" qpf and all snow... idk man. Grape Nut dump trucks on all other models but the gfs found a way to go all snow... lol. I'll take the under and probably A LOT under but there's a chance or something 

[Deep Creek]

8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

18z GFS crushes central and southern Virginia with sleet and ZR overnight. Legitimate ice storm.

Does it? Asking seriously because the snow and qpf map just posted wouldn’t indicate that. RIC at about 17” of snow at 1.35” qpf…where in the world is any qpf left for ice?

edited to say that does the snow map include sleet? Just seems like it would be way overstating snow if there was significant ice as well.

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

I thought 0z 1/22

They flying now so I’d think tonight. 

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

The problem is...it's the GFS.  Can't hate it when it shows something bad and love it when it shows something good.  We all know how this ends.   It's an outlier.   

And that makes me sad.  And drink.

GFS is clearly an outlier in one way, but still looks closer to the European consensus than the icon. Still really hard to bet against the Eps and the euro AI when they are in close agreement like this. Blend those two and let it ride.

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

GFS is clearly an outlier in one way, but still looks closer to the European consensus than the icon. Still really hard to bet against the Eps and the euro AI when they are in close agreement like this. Blend those two and let it ride.

The ai gfs looked point on to euro/euro ai

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 minute ago, IronTy said:

Guys, I'm tired.  I'm not sure my heart can take much more of this hobby.  

I mean rug pull chances are declining and will accelerate their decline if nothing significantly changes between now and tomorrow.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

GFS is clearly an outlier in one way, but still looks closer to the European consensus than the icon. Still really hard to bet against the Eps and the euro AI when they are in close agreement like this. Blend those two and let it ride.

Yeah that's more or less what I was thinking but didn't word it as well earlier.  I thought the GFS was relatively "closer" to the Euro which itself was pretty good at 12Z.  The ICON is far different than either.

[LordBaltimore]

Anyone know if other models are getting extra data sampling the baja low or just GFS? Sometimes good observations outweigh model accuracy and I'm unsure if this is something that would require knobs to be turned at other met centers who probably don't care as much about a CONUS event

[Jersey Andrew]

Just now, IronTy said:

Guys, I'm tired.  I'm not sure my heart can take much more of this hobby.  

If all the models lined up in unison, it would be no fun. This is the great chase for 2010,2016, or Knickerbocker redux. The fact we have pulled off some monsters in our lifetime makes it more interesting to follow.

[Its a Breeze]

6 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Is it still minimal or are we losing a more significant amount of snow to it? 

Minimal. Minimal enough to say GFS isn't really an outlier....

[clskinsfan]

3 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Guys, I'm tired.  I'm not sure my heart can take much more of this hobby.  

It's only 3 more days man. You can make it. 

[Franklin0529]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

GFS is clearly an outlier in one way, but still looks closer to the European consensus than the icon. Still really hard to bet against the Eps and the euro AI when they are in close agreement like this. Blend those two and let it ride.

This!! All winter the AI been balls on under 120 hrs

[Kevin Reilly]

20 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Double barrel highs 1044 and 1045

So double barrel highs 1044 and 1045.... it appears that the low is maybe trying to find a weakness in the ridge and head in that direction.  So there for not a complete wall to wall of cold high pressure but rather a double high that has a weakness which the primary is moving towards.  I think that needs to fuse together to prevent the north trend from continuing. 

[ravensrule]

1 minute ago, Warm Nose said:

None of the models today have incorporated the sampled data yet. 

It won’t even be in the 0Z tonight. It will be in tomorrow. 

[GreyHat]

19 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

1, 4

Beats all that ice that was being shown earlier. Models have been all over. I guess things won't be worked out till Friday, the way things are going .

[midatlanticweather]

Just now, GreyHat said:

Beats all that ice that was being shown earlier. Models have been all over. I guess things won't be worked out till Friday, the way things are going .

We will know Monday. For sure. 

[LeesburgWx]

1 minute ago, ravensrule said:

It won’t even be in the 0Z tonight. It will be in tomorrow. 

I thought it was going to be used for 00z tonight 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said:

I thought it was going to be used for 00z tonight 

I think they're actually doing the sampling tonight for the models to use tomorrow?

[Quasievil]

4 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

I thought it was going to be used for 00z tonight 

As I recall, the Mets yesterday said 00z Thursday 

[MillvilleWx]

For clarity sake

Data ingest is ONGOING and will be available for the 00z runs TONIGHT (00z 1/22)

There has been NO RECON DATA FOR TODAY (1/21). 
 

Thanks