Go Kart Mozart Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 4 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: i'm north of the city, I think NAM is on crack Unfortunately, one op NAM's (few) strengths is in the handling of mid-level warm noses in SWFEs. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 My guess is that it struggles north of HFD to GHG or so. Just north of there to the pike perhaps it’s lift dependent where lighter echoes are sleet and snow mix due to various reasons. NoP is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Sell. Unless you’re basing your forecast 100% of the NAM, a weighted average don’t really push the sleet inland at all. Im sure some of the Debbie’s will use the NAM because it’s the worst outcome Who are you and what have you done to our TFlizzy? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 oh hells yeah 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 34 minutes ago, dryslot said: Talk about a juiced up system, 12z Nam. I finally get some qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Sell. Unless you’re basing your forecast 100% of the NAM, a weighted average don’t really push the sleet inland at all. Im sure some of the Debbie’s will use the NAM because it’s the worst outcome I’m weighing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Unfortunately, one op NAM's (few) strengths is in the handling of mid-level warm noses in SWFEs. Yes, Beware the warm tongue. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Even if the coast gets pingers, I strongly believe it'll be after they get obliterated. So that's even better for you. I don't think you or my place in EH mixes. CT coast in a few miles inland SE CT, sure. Just don't think it'll be substantive. We will trust in you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 NAM panic before every big storm is a real condition. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, weatherwiz said: oh hells yeah What are we excited about here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 3 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Unfortunately, one op NAM's (few) strengths is in the handling of mid-level warm noses in SWFEs. Nam doesn't have strengths we've been through this before! Nam is literally the worst model and they're retiring it for a reason. HRRR is the model to use and rap 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Best antecedent air mass in ages and I still taint. FML. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I’m weighing in Have you gained or lost? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston Bulldog Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: Nam doesn't have strengths we've been through this before! Nam is literally the worst model and they're retiring it for a reason. HRRR is the model to use and rap This is cope, many such cases of NAM excelling in these set ups. It’s probably a bit overzealous but this is a legit signal 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 20 minutes ago, dryslot said: Instead of sniffing glue, The Nam is snorting coke. Say "hello" to my little friend.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I’m weighing it. I’m not surprised Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, Hoth said: Best antecedent air mass in ages and I still taint. FML. Greta needs to be imprisoned. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, Ginx snewx said: NAM panic before every big storm is a real condition. It’s an H8 warm nose in a SWFE. It’s not something I would immediately toss. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: NAM panic before every big storm is a real condition. The cold press is real. Nobody in SNE is seeing much taint. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, Boston Bulldog said: This is cope, many such cases of NAM excelling in these set ups okay i'll text you here monday and see who was wrong. I can be wrong im not saying that but im not falling for a crappy model thats getting retired! Yes we will mix with some sleet but that sleet line will drop south immediately once the low pressure starts taking shape off the coast of Jersey 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 I don’t get all the panic over the NAM. Personally, if I get 15 inches of snow and then taint I would consider that a huge win. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Who are you and what have you done to our TFlizzy? lol. I mean, are you new here? There’s going to be a dozen people here who base their forecast heavily off the worst possible model run for their BY, despite what the majority compromise may suggest. Lowering expectations to be pleasantly surprised later 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 NAM panic before every big storm is a real condition.Yeah there is a reason "Getting NAM'ed" is a legit situation... Can't tell you how many times I got skunked when living down south seeing a Nammer warm nose turn snow to IP and ZRSent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 I don’t get all the panic over the NAM. Personally, if I get 15 inches of snow and then taint I would consider that a huge win. If anything wouldn't a little IP actually help lock in the pack with latent heat release?Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 NAM panic before every big storm is a real condition.NAM Derangement Syndrome 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Kind of surprising pros are bridge jumping over a few early NAM panels? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Wow I hope the NAM is right. I’d have to up my forecast here to 15-20” easily. That’s a monster QPF bomb. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 18 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Isn’t that why you wait though? You let it play out? Because as our favorite seasonal wolf likes to say, you just don’t know I just said I thought it would be interesting based on early hours. It wound up being overall a bit better for most. Just noise IMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Wow I hope the NAM is right. I’d have to up my forecast here to 15-20” easily. That’s a monster QPF bomb. Crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I’m not surprised I didn’t say all in I said weighing its solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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