“Cory’s in LA! Let’s MECS!” Jan. 24-26 Disco

[Go Kart Mozart]

4 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

i'm north of the city, I think NAM is on crack

Unfortunately, one op NAM's (few) strengths is in the handling of mid-level warm noses in SWFEs.

[CoastalWx]

My guess is that it struggles north of HFD to GHG or so. Just north of there to the pike perhaps it’s lift dependent where lighter echoes are sleet and snow mix due to various reasons. NoP is good. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Sell. Unless you’re basing your forecast 100% of the NAM, a weighted average don’t really push the sleet inland at all.

Im sure some of the Debbie’s will use the NAM because it’s the worst outcome 

Who are you and what have you done to our TFlizzy?

[weatherwiz]

oh hells yeah 

[moneypitmike]

34 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Talk about a juiced up system, 12z Nam.

 

I finally get some qpf.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Sell. Unless you’re basing your forecast 100% of the NAM, a weighted average don’t really push the sleet inland at all.

Im sure some of the Debbie’s will use the NAM because it’s the worst outcome 

I’m weighing it.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Unfortunately, one op NAM's (few) strengths is in the handling of mid-level warm noses in SWFEs.

Yes, Beware the warm tongue.

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

Even if the coast gets pingers, I strongly believe it'll be after they get obliterated. So that's even better for you. I don't think you or my place in EH mixes. CT coast in a few miles inland SE CT, sure. Just don't think it'll be substantive. 

We will trust in you 

[Ginx snewx]

NAM panic before every big storm is a real condition.

[dendrite]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

oh hells yeah 

What are we excited about here

[WeatherGeek2025]

3 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Unfortunately, one op NAM's (few) strengths is in the handling of mid-level warm noses in SWFEs.

Nam doesn't have strengths we've been through this before! Nam is literally the worst model and they're retiring it for a reason. HRRR is the model to use and rap

[Hoth]

Best antecedent air mass in ages and I still taint. FML.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m weighing in

Have you gained or lost?

[Boston Bulldog]

1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

Nam doesn't have strengths we've been through this before! Nam is literally the worst model and they're retiring it for a reason. HRRR is the model to use and rap

This is cope, many such cases of NAM excelling in these set ups. It’s probably a bit overzealous but this is a legit signal 

[moneypitmike]

20 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Instead of sniffing glue, The Nam is snorting coke.

 

Say "hello" to my little friend....

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m weighing it.

I’m not surprised 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, Hoth said:

Best antecedent air mass in ages and I still taint. FML.

Greta needs to be imprisoned.

[dendrite]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

NAM panic before every big storm is a real condition.

It’s an H8 warm nose in a SWFE. It’s not something I would immediately toss.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

NAM panic before every big storm is a real condition.

The cold press is real.  Nobody in SNE is seeing much taint.  

[WeatherGeek2025]

Just now, Boston Bulldog said:

This is cope, many such cases of NAM excelling in these set ups

okay i'll text you here monday and see who was wrong. I can be wrong im not saying that but im not falling for a crappy model thats getting retired! Yes we will mix with some sleet but that sleet line will drop south immediately once the low pressure starts taking shape off the coast of Jersey

[George001]

I don’t get all the panic over the NAM. Personally, if I get 15 inches of snow and then taint I would consider that a huge win. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Who are you and what have you done to our TFlizzy?

lol. I mean, are you new here? There’s going to be a dozen people here who base their forecast heavily off the worst possible model run for their BY, despite what the majority compromise may suggest.

Lowering expectations to be pleasantly surprised later 

[Prismshine Productions]

NAM panic before every big storm is a real condition.

Yeah there is a reason "Getting NAM'ed" is a legit situation... Can't tell you how many times I got skunked when living down south seeing a Nammer warm nose turn snow to IP and ZR

Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

[Prismshine Productions]

I don’t get all the panic over the NAM. Personally, if I get 15 inches of snow and then taint I would consider that a huge win. 

If anything wouldn't a little IP actually help lock in the pack with latent heat release?

Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

[butterfish55]

NAM panic before every big storm is a real condition.

NAM Derangement Syndrome

[Kitz Craver]

Kind of surprising pros are bridge jumping over a few early NAM panels?

[ORH_wxman]

Wow I hope the NAM is right. I’d have to up my forecast here to 15-20” easily. That’s a monster QPF bomb. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

18 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Isn’t that why you wait though? You let it play out? Because as our favorite seasonal wolf likes to say, you just don’t know 

I just said I thought it would be interesting based on early hours.   It wound up being overall a bit better for most.    Just noise IMHO

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Wow I hope the NAM is right. I’d have to up my forecast here to 15-20” easily. That’s a monster QPF bomb. 

Crushed 

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’m not surprised 

I didn’t say all in I said weighing its solution.