“Cory’s in LA! Let’s MECS!” Jan. 24-26 Disco

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

I think it’s done. I think it’s more likely to tick south than north from here.

North yesterday. South today. Any way to screw SNE  

[moneypitmike]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

Idk.someone in SNE might do it.. it was still snowing after hr 84

In lunenburg.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Plenty of support for widespread 14-18:1 ratios across SNE for the heaviest rates

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, weathafella said:

Gets close to 1.5 into BOS.  Kind of supports 15-20.

Hundreds of model runs but never a waiver 15 to 20 lollies to 24

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Thats an easy 20-30" + Run wow , please have a clue NAM , it's not like it doesn't have some support for a run like that, it's just unlikely .. 

yea that’s 18-24” for us and while it matches NBM, not buying it for now. I’d like to see rgem tick the nam’s way with the monday stuff then I may think about shoving all my chips in…

[jbenedet]

This now has the look of a classic DC to Boston MECS. 
 

I do think the megalopolis is all in game for 12”+

[jbenedet]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

North yesterday. South today. Any way to screw SNE  

Actually no. 
 

If you’ve been paying attention SNE outside the immediate coast has been a sweet spot. Now I think the immediate coast is also in a great spot.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Plenty of support for widespread 14-18:1 ratios across SNE for the heaviest rates

Yeah I think 10 to 1 will definitely be too low to use in this storm unless you end up getting a prolonged period of sleet (seems unlikely for 95% of this forum)

I’d prob go about 14 to 1 for the storm average. There’s gonna be a bit of wind too…not a lot but enough to prob keep us from stacking perfect dendrites. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

yea that’s 18-24” for us and while it matches NBM, not buying it for now. I’d like to see rgem tick the nam’s way with the monday stuff then I may think about shoving all my chips in…

I'm not sold on widespread ideal snow growth ratios.  I think a general 10"-14" is a good bet with lollis on the coast. 

[jbenedet]

SNE looks like sweet spot for this. I also think NYC comes back with much less mixing…

[jbenedet]

Really good look with this storm at this hour and latest trends. 
 

I also don’t think the qpf amounts are done moving higher. 
 

Watching for a slowing trend…

 

[Baroclinic Zone]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I think 10 to 1 will definitely be too low to use in this storm unless you end up getting a prolonged period of sleet (seems unlikely for 95% of this forum)

I’d prob go about 14 to 1 for the storm average. There’s gonna be a bit of wind too…not a lot but enough to prob keep us from stacking perfect dendrites. 

As has been said before, I think we’re also seeing that subtle increase in QPF as we close in.

[CoastalWx]

Icon slightly north of 6z

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I'm not sold on widespread ideal snow growth ratios.  I think a general 10"-14" is a good bet with lollis on the coast. 

I think snow growth looks great for the thump. it’s the post thump that will determine if we can take it up another notch. Staying 10-16” for now…

[weatherwiz]

Its the 84 hr NAM gut that is a lot of DPVA throughout the day Monday (seem better animated of course)

And we're in the left exit region of this monster jet streak

[jbenedet]

NY and Boston gonna get dumped on.

[Typhoon Tip]

9 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Really good look with this storm at this hour and latest trends. 
 

I also don’t think the qpf amounts are done moving higher. 
 

Watching for a slowing trend…

 

I haven't heard ( haven't run out to NWS afds just yet, either ) mention of specific PWAT values in this air mass transporting up underneath the boundary...

Given the source is from the deep S/proximity to the Gulf Of Wet Fart Mexico ( I refuse to honor the idiocy of the renaming ...)...it seems we could be shitting a ton more than people are really aware with this whole beast. 

But we'll see. It's possible to choke-snow fall rates from isentropic lift, tho.  I'm also wondering if just gets so extreme that there's thunder, too. 

[Prismshine Productions]

NAM had me at 20" Kuchie on hr84 and still dumping snow... Wtaf

Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

[jbenedet]

@40/70 Benchmark

The PV block wins.

Cheers.

[Layman]

1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

NY and Boston gonna get dumped on.

Any thoughts on a gradient from BOS up to your area?  Boston at 20", Dover 15"?

[Go Kart Mozart]

16 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Thats an easy 20-30" + Run wow , please have a clue NAM , it's not like it doesn't have some support for a run like that, it's just unlikely .. 

1.7" with no taint....LFG!

[jbenedet]

3 minutes ago, Layman said:

Any thoughts on a gradient from BOS up to your area?  Boston at 20", Dover 15"?

That’s a good baseline right here.

right now I’m thinking BOS is like 24-30” and I’m 12-18”

That’s a low confidence game though at this stage, but gun to head guess right now, that’s how I’d roll

 

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Pope is all in. We are blessed.

[jbenedet]

Today’s a great day for a beer and “major snowstorm incoming thoughts”.

Man it’s been a while…

[mahk_webstah]

1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

That’s a good baseline right here.

right now I’m thinking BOS is like 24-30” and I’m 12-18”

That’s a low confidence game though at this stage, but gun to head guess right now, that’s how I’d roll

 

 

How do you think it plays up my way near Concord? When is good for the coast? It’s usually not good here but if there’s a good easterly flow, we can do pretty well.

[moneypitmike]

A hush fall upon the maine crowd

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Pope is all in. We are blessed.

Handing out bottles of wine like Halloween candy 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Handing out bottles of wine like Halloween candy 

Keg stands at the altar with the blood of Christ…

[ariof]

11 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Pike or NH border?

Northern border of Mass. Although it is much less salient west of the Connecticut.

[HoarfrostHubb]

44 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

So what’s everyone’s guess? Snowday monday, do some places cancel Tuesday too?

Possible depending on the individual location, their DPW, etc.   Further east seems more likely