1/24-1/25 Major Winter Storm - S. IL, IN, MI and OH

[Chicago Storm]

Show is over around here.

Really needed the northern stream waves and TPV arm in Central/Western Canada to be placed a bit further west.

So close, yet so far.

[sbnwx85]

3” final call.

[TimChgo9]

33 minutes ago, nvck said:

are you in 513-land? we need more cincy posters on here
 

Yep. NE burb of Cincinnati, moved here in September. 

[Jackstraw]

7 here final call. Bust potential 3 up or down me thinks. That 12Z Canuk, oh Lawdy, I won't complain until next December if that happens!! lol

[Radtechwxman]

Trends becoming more clear. Nam likely out to lunch with a more north phased system. Seems like we will get some degree of phasing to bring precip shield quite north but not quite a full phase to really max out full potential this north. Seeing a slight correction south and tightening of north gradient of snow which makes sense. Cutoff will be brutal on north edge. Hoping I can still get something and it won't keep cutting more south. 

[Chicago916]

43 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Show is over around here.

Really needed the northern stream waves and TPV arm in Central/Western Canada to be placed a bit further west.

So close, yet so far.

So you're saying now until the start of the system it won't continue to baby step better, upping snow totals each new run (jk but I really miss those days)

[Baum]

54 minutes ago, DocATL said:

Luckily the bust potential for us isn’t anything crazy. 0-3”. Firmly in our duster wheelhouse.


.

Once you’re out. You can’t come back in. Bust potential on these 48 hours out is the reverse.

[Malacka11]

I think the 12z Euro is gonna make us lol a bit if the AI is an indicator which to my (CS not met-based) understanding it fundamentally is

[Chicago916]

1 minute ago, Malacka11 said:

I think the 12z Euro is gonna make us lol a bit if the AI is an indicator which to my (CS not met-based) understanding it fundamentally is

Looks the same as last run to me

[Malacka11]

3 minutes ago, Chicago916 said:

Looks the same as last run to me

Don't get me wrong I'm not trying to be silly and I'm definitely not saying its showing GHD IIIIII.  Frankly, my enthusiasm revolves solely around ChiStorm's daily-at-best check-ins, so ya know where I'm at. Just looking on TT,  the Euro AI seemed to bump a bit NW while everything else this suite hasn't, which I thought would be amusingly par for course if it's reflected in the base Euro too.    

[SchaumburgStormer]

In a model miss we will talk about for decades, GHD4 incoming. Shock of the year. 

please all credit to me when bumping this next week. 

[Chicago916]

8 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

Don't get me wrong I'm not trying to be silly and I'm definitely not saying its showing GHD IIIIII.  Frankly, my enthusiasm revolves solely around ChiStorm's daily-at-best check-ins, so ya know where I'm at. Just looking on TT,  the Euro AI seemed to bump a bit NW while everything else this suite hasn't, which I thought would be amusingly par for course if it's reflected in the base Euro too.    

I feel that. Today's theme is just minor adjustments everywhere tbh. Still could see a surprise since I think some of the features are still up in the Arctic.

[Stebo]

Euro nudged back up locally and the AIEuro definitely went up. Everything tells you what you should already know, toss the GFS's garbage ass.

[Jackstraw]

KIND expanded WSW north to cover their entire forecast area. Discussion wording is still fairly bullish on potential bust low for locations N of I70. Potential is definitely there but gotta think positive! BTW, is their a MET at the KIND office named Bud? lol

[Frog Town]

4 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Euro nudged back up locally and the AIEuro definitely went up. Everything tells you what you should already know, toss the GFS's garbage ass.

Assuming this is why the Winter Storm Watches extended NW a bit into Toledo.  Imagine some will be added to SE michigan..

[Stebo]

2 minutes ago, Frog Town said:

Assuming this is why the Winter Storm Watches extended NW a bit into Toledo.  Imagine some will be added to SE michigan..

I would add most of KS/MO/IL/rest of IN/and most of S MI east of 23 or south of 94

[Baum]

10 minutes ago, Stebo said:

I would add most of KS/MO/IL/rest of IN/and most of S MI east of 23 or south of 94

Hey, new best friend.

[roardog]

I know this doesn’t necessarily mean anything for this particular storm but we have seen NW trends with storms this winter. The storm two weeks ago that no one was paying attention to because it was it was rain and Spring for most of the sub actually trended way NW 48 hours or so prior. It was modeled to go over or south of my house and ended up over northern Lake Michigan I believe. I mentioned something then about how this was the first winter in like 10 years that storms have been trending NW instead of SE. 

[Chicago916]

I want whatever this experimental Canadian model is smoking. 

[Harry Perry]

Feeling a solid 1-3” here but it’s way too early to say for sure. That arctic high might eliminate any meaningful snow this far north/west. I’d feel better being south of M59 and East of 23. 

[A-L-E-K]

chuckin' 'em deep^

[Stebo]

11 minutes ago, Baum said:

Hey, new best friend.

Unlike Joe, I do think Chicago cashes in, but more than like by means of lake effect.

[NoDoppler4TonySandz]

1 hour ago, TimChgo9 said:

Yep. NE burb of Cincinnati, moved here in September. 

Long time member; had to re-create my account after several unsuccessful attempts at recovery/password update.

SE Suburb -- ESE of Downtown Cincy

Rare -> High ratio event for SW OH (or so it appears)

[beavis1729]

23 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

chuckin' 'em deep^

Yes sir…and why not, I’ll pile on. 

With a prog like this, one might think there’s room to go at least a bit further north.

 

 

[TimChgo9]

2 minutes ago, NoDoppler4TonySandz said:

Long time member; had to re-create my account after several unsuccessful attempts at recovery/password update.

SE Suburb -- ESE of Downtown Cincy

Rare -> High ratio event for SW OH (or so it appears)

That's what it looks like.  First snowstorm for me in a couple of years. (I was in TX for the Feb '21 debacle.) Nebraska winters were boring when I was out there.   My wife is from the Dayton area, we moved out here to be as close as possible to her father.  

NE of Cincy here. 

Currently on leave from work, so I get to just sit and watch the snow as it comes down.  

BTW - KILN calling for 7"-11" 

[A-L-E-K]

4 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

Yes sir…and why not, I’ll pile on. 

With a prog like this, one might think there’s room to go at least a bit further north.

 

 

Not sure I follow the logic but pulling for u

[beavis1729]

1 minute ago, A-L-E-K said:

Not sure I follow the logic but pulling for u

Strong SE ridge and H85 low fairly far west. I know, probably grasping at straws. 

[Radtechwxman]

7 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

Strong SE ridge and H85 low fairly far west. I know, probably grasping at straws. 

That's showing 850mb temperature anomalies though. Not height anomalies. You would want height contours for what you're talking about. 

[beavis1729]

3 minutes ago, Radtechwxman said:

That's showing 850mb temperature anomalies though. Not height anomalies. You would want height contours for what you're talking about. 

Right, good point. Mainly, I was just surprised how cold it was at H85 that far southwest…which I didn’t expect to see. My hope is that strange things could happen with a gradient like that.

[Radtechwxman]

10 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

Right, good point. Mainly, I was just surprised how cold it was at H85 that far southwest…which I didn’t expect to see. My hope is that strange things could happen with a gradient like that.

Unfortunately I think north trend would be minimal to NIL at this point unless we saw some major phasing happen earlier