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Possible Record Breaking Cold + Snow Sunday 1/25 - Tuesday 1/27


TriPol
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10 minutes ago, Nibor said:

DHBlegb.png

Was just looking at the EPS. Looks like a decently large spread on where the primary low is.

According to the EPS mean, there is a definite indication of a MAJOR coastal low pressure center near the latitude of the Mid-Atlantic to Southern New England areas. The evidence that the ensemble members are plotting closely together shows that the group appears willing to evolve toward a coastal redevelopment or borrowed coastal system as opposed to working directionally inland.

The Normalized Spread of the ensemble members indicates a low degree of spread across the Northeast region as indicated by the region of North and Central New Jersey and a decreasing amount of uncertainty narrowing in New York City. The greatest area of spread, i.e., the west and south of the city, indicates the confidence level for the track is very high.

This also indicates mid-level pattern evolution will transfer to the surface of the climate system in an uncomplicated fashion. The ensemble indicates the same path of motion that has been forecasted by the H5 atmosphere since prior to multiple computer models becoming consistent at the H5, including last night's European model update. At this time the only remaining questions are how much water will fall within the axial centerline of maximum impact and when will maximum rainfall occur.

This is why we chase storms all winter. Why we stay up until 3 am refreshing, analyzing. All because of storms like this.

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4 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

Would a set up like this cause thundersnow?

Predicting where and when thundersnow will happen is difficult, but... this is the setup could give us that. 

Interestingly enough, the Great Lakes are forecasted to have Snowspouts this weekend.

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26 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

look at this map it shows 850's below freezing that shows snow all around south of long island and nyc could be sleet but nyc and north is all snow on the euro. its a great run!

IMG_3229.png

I don't love for Long Island going from 24hrs ago the callouts about the impressive cold air and cheering any tick north to the freeze line right at the typical south shore spot with this much time left 

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1 minute ago, TriPol said:

Predicting where and when thundersnow will happen is difficult, but... this is the setup could give us that. 

Interestingly enough, the Great Lakes are forecasted to have Snowspouts this weekend.

especially if the mid-level warmer air starts surging north causing  alot of instability in the atmosphere - question is where this will happen ?

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2 minutes ago, Breene said:

I don't love for Long Island going from 24hrs ago the callouts about the impressive cold air and cheering any tick north to the freeze line right at the typical south shore spot with this much time left 

I definitely understand, Parts of Long Island could flip to sleet unfortunately, even NYC. I am mostly basing my forecasting off GFS and especially Euro AI.  plenty of time still

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5 minutes ago, Wxbear25 said:

Icon wants to send the S/W in the Southwest on a vacation in Cabo

All the models have it down there. The key is it ejecting Saturday morning.

It’s interesting that one piece of this storm will bring rain to Southern CA on Friday.

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Just now, Brian5671 said:

been a trend all day-continue northward ticks...

I think this would be on the extreme end of guidance but mixing to some degree looks likely along the coast and potentially further inland. Lots of time for further adjustments either way. 

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