Possible Record Breaking Cold + Snow Sunday 1/25 - Tuesday 1/27

[Franklin0529]

Yup GFS is a 12-18" area wide 

[jdj5211]

Likely some 18-24 inch amounts would pop up with this run verbatim


.

[snywx]

1 minute ago, TriPol said:

Lee Goldberg said a higher chance of 12+ inches more North and West. I don't see that at all.

Ratios 

[TriPol]

126 still snowing Tuesday morning.

[David-LI]

00z GFS Kuchera

 

[Winterweatherlover]

Just now, Jt17 said:

The output looks just like 12z GFS. 18z was doing 18z things


.

Good catch, I didn't realize how juiced 12z was.

[mikeysed]

[weathermedic]

Also looks like the wind picks up towards the end of the precip as the low deepens

[David-LI]

1 minute ago, TriPol said:

126 still snowing Tuesday morning.

I dont see that on the run. Wraps up Monday afternoon / evening. 24hr event nonetheless.

[psv88]

I want at some point a nice ice/sleet/snow event. Stays frozen but just a total disaster. At some point pure snow gets boring. An icy messy disaster is more fun in my mind. Snow is snow

[TriPol]

1 minute ago, psv88 said:

I want at some point a nice ice/sleet/snow event. Stays frozen but just a total disaster. At some point pure slow gets boring. An icy messy disaster is more fun in the mind. Snow is snow

Go down south. Plenty of that this week.

[SACRUS]

 

00z GFS AI AIGFS total QPF

 

[Jt17]

I dont see that on the run. Wraps up Monday afternoon / evening. 24hr event nonetheless.

Accumulations stop around 120


.

[Winterweatherlover]

CMC still amped, heavy snow to lots of sleet.

[SnoSki14]

Just now, SACRUS said:

 

00z GFS AI AIGFS total QPF

 

Is that mostly snow?

[SACRUS]

32 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

1/22 00Z QPF  - NYC

 

ICON: 1.5 
GFS: 1.2 
GFS AI AIGFS: 0.9

Updated

[coastalplainsnowman]

2 minutes ago, Jt17 said:

Accumulations stop around 120


.

inches?

[SACRUS]

GGEM

 

 

 

 

 

[Rjay]

If the synoptic evolution remains similar the next couple of days then I will really start to look at the nam to see the real story on the mid-level warmth. It's basically the only thing the nam is good for. 

[MJO812]

Just now, SACRUS said:

GGEM

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Franklin0529]

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

If the synoptic evolution remains similar the next couple of days then I will really start to look at the nam to see the real story on the mid-level warmth. It's basically the only thing the nam is good for. 

Yup did a good job here last week 

[Winterweatherlover]

0Z CMC probably the ugliest run I've seen so far for NYC/LI in the last 2 days of runs.

[SACRUS]

 

00Z GGEM Total QPF - storm

 

[NorthShoreWx]

GFS LP drops 22mb in 24 hours.  Only a wee bit shy of a bomb, and with that big high over Quebec, there would be some wind.

[psv88]

Just now, Winterweatherlover said:

0Z CMC probably the ugliest run I've seen so far for NYC/LI in the last 2 days of runs.

No way. It’s all frozen. A long duration sleet storm will also be cool. Nothing shows rain which is nice.

[Winterweatherlover]

Just now, psv88 said:

No way. It’s all frozen. A long duration sleet storm will also be cool. Nothing shows rain which is nice.

It's more sleet than snow or at least close to 50/50 and the east end does look like it flips to rain at the end.

[psv88]

Just now, NorthShoreWx said:

GFS LP drops 22mb in 24 hours.  Only a wee bit shy of a bomb, and with that big high over Quebec, there would be some wind.

Nothing like a sleet storm with 45 mph winds. LFGGGG

[Snowguy66]

Long duration events never usually work out for us

[SBUWX23]

CMC isn't my favorite model but it's still a potential solution. One thing the CMC and rgem were consistently over amplified in past years at this range. 

[SnoSki14]

Just now, psv88 said:

No way. It’s all frozen. A long duration sleet storm will also be cool. Nothing shows rain which is nice.

Inches of sleet on top of snow would absolutely suck. 

But CMC ain't a good model