ILoveWinter Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 The NAM is not infallible when it comes to being the most aggressive with warm noses but agree that it could verify. I do wonder why in this instance it is the most aggressive - is it because it tracks the primary further north vs the other models? Does it show a stronger primary? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Latest NWS probabilistic estimate of 6" or more snow for New York City: 90% Islip was at 81% and Newark was at 88%. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 23 minutes ago, MJO812 said: What a mess it will be outside if we get 6 plus inches of snow and some sleet. Oh yeah. Sleet has more bang for its buck-doesn't pile up like snow obviously but will thicken up the snowpack and be a huge pain to move. After 3/14/17 the snow/ice piles were crazy. I remember the Feb 2007 storm in central PA with 10-11" of thick snow/sleet that hardened up into cement. A week from now even though we shave a few snow inches off for sleet I doubt people will be complaining if they like snowpack staying around like me. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Models look great! Nice to see icon and RGEM snowier 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, psv88 said: Models look great! Nice to see icon and RGEM snowier NAM should give pause. I hate the model but I think it’s very good at detecting warm noses. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Oh yeah. Sleet has more bang for its buck-doesn't pile up like snow obviously but will thicken up the snowpack and be a huge pain to move. After 3/14/17 the snow/ice piles were crazy. I remember the Feb 2007 storm in central PA with 10-11" of thick snow/sleet that hardened up into cement. A week from now even though we shave a few snow inches off for sleet I doubt people will be complaining if they like snowpack staying around like me. We might set some modern snow pack longevity records with no warm ups in sight after the storm. That glacier will last a very long time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Oh yeah. Sleet has more bang for its buck-doesn't pile up like snow obviously but will thicken up the snowpack and be a huge pain to move. After 3/14/17 the snow/ice piles were crazy. I remember the Feb 2007 storm in central PA with 10-11" of thick snow/sleet that hardened up into cement. A week from now even though we shave a few snow inches off for sleet I doubt people will be complaining if they like snowpack staying around like me. The piles of black and yellow snow in Brooklyn are going to look great next week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 NYC has a chance to break their record of longest stretch of below 32 temperatures. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: The piles of black and yellow snow in Brooklyn are going to look great next week. Good thing I don't have to commute there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 2 minutes ago, BoulderWX said: NAM should give pause. I hate the model but I think it’s very good at detecting warm noses. It can overdo it. We're flipping regardless but hopefully can get a bigger front end thump like the other models have. Problem is we still have 48 hours to go 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: We might set some modern snow pack longevity records with no warm ups in sight after the storm. That glacier will last a very long time Yep, it will be hard as granite. The snowpack will contain the same water as anywhere else since we aren't transitioning to rain or going above freezing-it will just be denser near the coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 This is starting to remind me of that storm in Dec 2013 where we went from teens and snow over to sleet. It was a smaller storm but I remember the crazy temperature differential with like 13 in Sussex and 44 and rain in AC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdj5211 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Steven’s thoughts….. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 snow and sleet will stick around for awhile with high temps next week in the 20's and lows in the low teens at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East of the Parkway Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 9 minutes ago, jdj5211 said: Steven’s thoughts…. . I've been a 4 my whole life 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 7 minutes ago, nycwinter said: snow and sleet will stick around for awhile with high temps next week in the 20's and lows in the low teens at night. And possible another storm next weekend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 There will still be a nice thump of snow but IMO the bigger story is becoming the sleet. 6-10" of snow with a ton of sleet on top is going to be create big problems in the coming days with the very cold week coming up and it icing up even further. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 I'm pretty confident it will taint, but I think the somewhat weak consensus in this thread is overestimating the magnitude of it. I looked at model soundings last night that showed the warmest part of the column at about -2C at my location aligned with a p-type map where we were deep into the purple. Gives me more confidence in the NWS sticking to their guns. The 3rd party p-type maps are often bizarre. I'm eager to see NAM soundings once most of the storm gets within 60 hours. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 17 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: This is starting to remind me of that storm in Dec 2013 where we went from teens and snow over to sleet. It was a smaller storm but I remember the crazy temperature differential with like 13 in Sussex and 44 and rain in AC That storm was one of the NAM’s shining moments (there aren’t very many). I remember everyone discounted it because, well it’s the NAM. But it nailed the midlevel warm nose perfectly and early. Even the other mesos didn’t pick up on it until it was almost happening and the globals completely missed it. These types of setups are the only reason why, IMO, the NWS shouldn’t totally retire the NAM. It’s literally the only thing it’s good at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 19 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: We might set some modern snow pack longevity records with no warm ups in sight after the storm. That glacier will last a very long time It will never top the January 94 ? Snow ice pack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Sleet at least adds up and makes the snowpack last, we want to avoid rain though (NAM shows a bit at the tail end for southern parts of the city). Just need the NAM 30-40 miles south and I honestly don't care if we flip to sleet a bit earlier than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: There is still a big front end thump of snow before the mix to sleet, that’s locked in. Getting back to the NAM, Binghamton NWS is expecting a possible turn to sleet all the way up into Northeast PA in their new disco this morning: “Models continue their jog northward for our winter storm Sunday into Monday. No major changes at this time, with still a significant snowstorm expected for the area with a widespread 10"+ with locally higher amounts possibly over 20". The finer scale models will be coming into play over the next 24 hours. It should be noted that the NAM and CMCreg are showing strong SE flow at H850. The NAM is notorious for doing very well forecasting the warm layers aloft and this will be something to monitor as we get closer. This warm layer aloft may not cause mixing per say, but it may significantly change snow ratios Sunday night across NEPA and possibly into the Southern Tier and this would produce lower snow totals in these areas if it comes to fruition. Also, mixing is not noted in our forecast at this time, however, a future change could be warranted if this trend north continues any further and this would also hinder snowfall totals across the southern forecast area some.” You are right. However in the last storm it showed sleet to CT and we never turned to sleep. Its great but not always perfect. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 7 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: I'm pretty confident it will taint, but I think the somewhat weak consensus in this thread is overestimating the magnitude of it. I looked at model soundings last night that showed the warmest part of the column at about -2C at my location aligned with a p-type map where we were deep into the purple. Gives me more confidence in the NWS sticking to their guns. The 3rd party p-type maps are often bizarre. I'm eager to see NAM soundings once most of the storm gets within 60 hours. If we have heavy rates we can overcome shallow layers a bit above freezing-we might get rimed flakes etc but it's when the rates are reduced and we get dry holes in the precip that the warm air can become more established. And sometimes there are sneaky warm layers that aren't captured well in the soundings. Seems like the warm layer that can flip us over would be around 750mb from what I've seen. In any case it will still snow a lot and hopefully by the time the sleet gets here we're about to shut it off anyway. That's a potent high pressure dome all that Gulf moisture is slamming into and it will take a while to warm it up. The dryslot will also be a consideration if we have a strong 700mb low tracking into Lake Erie. Dry air will pivot around the SE side of it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdj5211 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 We’ve also seen plenty of times when the NAM shows 30+ amounts 48 hours before a storm and those locations end up with 6-12. Like most storms, likely going to be a nowcast situation with some hopefully pleasant surprises. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 53 minutes ago, BoulderWX said: The NWS actually added an inch to my WSW - 12-17. Not sure what they’re looking at. They're going to adjust that downwards almost certainly I'd think, they've already started the process of lowering totals with the new update. I can't see a widespread 12+ outside of the NW burbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 On a funny note I woke up to watch TWC and at 6:50 they had a box to the right with NYC at 8 to 12. Then at 7:05 the box changed to 12 to 18. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 18 minutes ago, MJO812 said: And possible another storm next weekend IMO a bigger disappointment than this storm having more sleet is this being the only 6+ storm during this cold stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 3 hours ago, wishcast_hater said: URGENT WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE – WINTER DISAPPOINTMENT DESK ISSUED: Immediately, because hope is fragile SUMMARY: A significant winter storm is expected to impact the region. Forecast confidence remains high for heavy snow potential, followed by a dangerous transition to sleet, freezing rain, or the ultimate betrayal: plain rain. ⸻ HAZARDS: • Initial excitement from model runs showing 18–30 inches • Rapid emotional destabilization as warm nose appears • Keyboard smashing, doom posting, and refresh-induced psychosis • Statements such as “this storm is dead” at T-72 hours ⸻ SUICIDE WATCH (METEOROLOGICAL): IN EFFECT A Snowlover Emotional Crisis Watch is in effect for the duration of the event. Residents are advised: • Do not do anything rash based on one model run • Step away from social media during the sleet phase • Remember: one band can still save the storm • Refrain from declaring winter “over” before March ⸻ TIMING: • Snow: Hope Phase • Sleet/Freezing Rain: Anger Phase • Rain: Acceptance (or complete meltdown) • Post-storm: “Next system looks promising” Phase ⸻ PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS: • Touch grass (or snow, if available) • Hydrate • Do not fight family members over 850 mb temps • Seek professional help if you start trusting the GFS blindly ⸻ FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low on precipitation type High on emotional damage . agreed - makes one nauseous reading some of these Doom and Gloom - Debbie Downer posts about a little sleet mixing in cutting the double digit accumulation down a couple inches...I am not going to get involved in that nonsense . THINK POSITIVE ! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Why is there little discussion of 0z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, winterwarlock said: Why is there little discussion of 0z Euro Too busy worrying about the sleet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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