TJW014 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 GFS yet again remains best case scenario. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, WestBabylonWeather said: Long Island is going to get screwed with early sleet isn’t it. No. It’s a great run for us. Still 12+ and cold. It’s coming. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 4 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: Long Island is going to get screwed with early sleet isn’t it. Based on the 12z GFS for Long Island, it looks like about 6-8 inches of snow before changeover to sleet around 5-7 pm. Then perhaps another 2 inches of sleet. I do not see Long Island with 14 inches of snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 4 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: Long Island is going to get screwed with early sleet isn’t it. No lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 GFS yet again remains best case scenario. Looking very similar to NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 GFS is consistent with most of the greats in our area. Very hard to stay all snow...but 90+% snow is doable...and think 8 to 14 is a good call attm from CNJ into NYC. That's what I'm telling people anyway. Bust low potential 4". Bust high potential 17". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 3 minutes ago, psv88 said: No. It’s a great run for us. Still 12+ and cold. It’s coming. I also think so. We always have to worry about sleet but now the models are bringing the precip in earlier and transferring faster to the coastal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 3 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: Long Island is going to get screwed with early sleet isn’t it. We have to watch how it plays out on Sun AM. It's going to be a very high impact storm here regardless of how much sleet we get and I'd argue even higher impact with sleet. Sleet is very tough to move and lasts longer. It will also all freeze up into a brick after it's done. The snowpack with 9-10" and sleet or 15-16" all snow has the same water content. Every model has the initial heavy thump of snow-does it stay intact like a wall or start shredding up, if it shreds up we get sleet sooner. That being said the sleet will sooner or later get here in this type of storm, always does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 The GFS has been holding out on bringing sleet to NENJ, Westchester, and the south shore of CT. This run it finally did briefly - even viewed on the 6hr panels. But its run-to-run shifts fortunately haven't been huge. And it looked like the GFS actually made bigger moves south of us around 48hr with an initially sharper trof before shifting east later in the run... like it was playing catch up initially on the phasing but still picking up on the trend towards a more positively tilted trof angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Wrap around snow on the GFS, still snowing at 1 pm on Monday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 GGEM looked pretty good to me, no weird dry slot/holes. To me a general overrunning system like this isn't as bandy as a major nor'easter would be and shouldn't have these random dry spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Now, basically all models in the 10" - 15" range, with a good/classic coastal storm track and near perfect high pressure placement. Some sleet NYC S/E, but not before A LOT of snow.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 21 minutes ago, SACRUS said: 12z Suite Total QPF / Snow/sleet Frz Rn (10:1) - NYC SREF: 1.4 / (8.8) NAM: 1.7 / (14.6) RGEM: 1.1 / (7.8) ICON: 1.2 / (8.0) GFS: 1.4 / (12.4) Updated 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 12Z CMC a bit colder than 0Z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 This should be a good nowcast storm. So many variables. Long Island looks to be good up front snows, then sleet or freezing rain and back to snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: GGEM looked pretty good to me, no weird dry slot/holes. To me a general overrunning system like this isn't as bandy as a major nor'easter would be and shouldn't have these random dry spots. It’s a bit less than the GFS but not terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Update. Improved: NAM CMC RGEM Did not improve: ICON GFS Waffles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Canadian looks 8-12 verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 The NBM's average snow-liquid ratio was down to 10.0:1 for the 1/23 12z output vs. 16.5:1 for the 1/23 0z output. In short, it was starting to come in line with what is typical for high QPF snow events. Given the warming that is expected at 650 mb-800 mb, which will change the precipitation to sleet in New York City and its nearby suburbs and south and east from there, I suspect that a storm average 7:1 to 9:1 is probably more likely. That will still translate into a significant snowfall for the New York City area. Initially, little has changed regarding the DGZ and vertical profile of temperatures during the onset to the height of the storm. Conditions are forecast to be almost ideal for dendritic formation. Hence, snow-liquid ratios will probably start at 13:1 to 15:1 and then fall as the mid-levels begin to warm prior to the change to sleet. Snowfall rates could approach 1"-2" per hour during late Sunday morning into the early Sunday afternoon as an area of powerful 700 mb frontogenic forcing moves across the region. The NAM had been the most aggressive model with the push of warm air aloft at 6z, but it backed off at 12z, due to a combination of a weaker/more southward primary low and overall reduction in amplification at 500 mb. The RGEM had moved in a similar direction as the 12z NAM during the 6z cycle but then reversed itself at 12z. A comparison of the 6z and 12z NAM soundings for NYC for select points in time is below. With the models continuing to shift about, it makes little sense to pursue hunches or preconceived notions into blind alleys, throw darts to guess which specific model solution will verify, or to ride any single model and the roller coaster of emotions it brings with each cycle. Thus, continuity at this point is a better approach than lurching in one direction or another only to crash one's forecast. To me, it still appears that New York City and nearby areas will likely see a storm total of 6"-12" of snow and sleet. Areas to the south and east of New York City could see 4"-8" amounts. Pockets of 12"-18" amounts are possible well north and west of New York City, most likely in parts of northeastern Pennsylvania, Orange County, Dutchess County, and Sussex County. There remains some uncertainty concerning mid-level and surface storm evolution and tracks, and perhaps somewhat greater uncertainty regarding a potential primary-secondary storm handoff. Model skill is improving and will improve markedly today as the lead time shortens during the day. For now, it appears that the models are slowly working toward a consensus. At present, there's no compelling need to make changes up or down in storm total snow/sleet amounts. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, NJwx85 said: It’s a bit less than the GFS but not terrible. A bit drier I think more than even warm, I don't see any 18+ totals anywhere on the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, EastonSN+ said: Update. Improved: NAM CMC RGEM Did not improve: ICON GFS Waffles. 3 improved, 2 neutral, overall big south/stronger confluence trend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 2 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: A bit drier I think more than even warm, I don't see any 18+ totals anywhere on the GGEM. Follows the rgem. Probably just noise since other models have settled on 1 to 1.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 AIGFS a bit worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 16 minutes ago, David-LI said: Based on the 12z GFS for Long Island, it looks like about 6-8 inches of snow before changeover to sleet around 5-7 pm. Then perhaps another 2 inches of sleet. I do not see Long Island with 14 inches of snow. Yea i don't think anyone on long island should be expecting 14" of snow...8-12" total snow and sleet is a good forecast, and its in our WSW. This will be a MECS with major impacts, largely because it will be so cold. But, this is not a record setting storm by any means. Just a major, high impact storm to enjoy on a Sunday. That is what this has always been. Setting your expectations higher is not realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1/23 12z GGEM Total QPF: Total snow / sleet (10:1) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 5 minutes ago, winterwarlock said: Canadian looks 8-12 verbatim Slightly south and colder Good trends on the 12z runs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNJSnowman Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Canadian doesn't seem to have the nasty cutoff that's showing on other models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarcmmKU Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 24 minutes ago, Astoriaweather said: Some NYC area Mets are increasing totals for the city this morning. Others, like Tomer, are really down playing things and seem skeptical of even 6 inches in the city. https://x.com/MikeMasco/status/2014682599302607146?s=20 Tomer is pretty good, and is cautious with these overrunning setups. He's busted low with them recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Models have been showing steadily less precipitation into Michigan and southern Ontario reflecting the lessening trof angle. That makes the synoptics more workable for us and makes it much less likely the NAM will signal a shift to a sleet bomb ending as ZR. As I've mentioned, when Saranac Lake, NY and Burlington, VT get big snows, we usually do not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 3 minutes ago, MarcmmKU said: Tomer is pretty good, and is cautious with these overrunning setups. He's busted low with them recently. i find lee goldberg and the guy on news 12 pretty good. no one is perfect. but news 12 was so good during ida i gained a lot of respect for them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now