EastonSN+ Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 3 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: 12Z NAM looked way better for NYC, RGEM slightly worse, expect some wobbling, going to be close in terms of mainly snow vs several hours of sleet but I think we are narrowing the borderline area to 30 miles north and south of the I80 corridor. Compare RGEM from 6z, definitely improved with the primary speed and location. Can't take the snow map or mix timing at this long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, EastonSN+ said: Compare RGEM from 6z, definitely improved with the primary speed and location. Can't take the snow map or mix timing at this long range. Yeah it didn't change much other than got drier so looks like less snow. Nam got wetter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 NAM, which the naysayers cling to for mid level warming, popped the secondary earlier and further SE. this ticked the mixing south. Great run of the NAM. the RGEM was less snowy due to a weird QPF min around the city. The ICON has been wildly inconsistent. so far I like the 12z suite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 20 minutes ago, Prue11 said: Going with 6-10” for my area. where is your area ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, psv88 said: NAM, which the naysayers cling to for mid level warming, popped the secondary earlier and further SE. this ticked the mixing south. Great run of the NAM. the RGEM was less snowy due to a weird QPF min around the city. The ICON has been wildly inconsistent. so far I like the 12z suite I agree overall it's looked improved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: To me it’s been steady as she goes for the last 2 days. There’ll be a very heavy initial thump of snow then we flip to sleet at least around I-80 and south for a while, looks like around mid to late afternoon. Hopefully by then most of the precip is done. The questions are really what happens on Monday with any coastal development and how fast the dry slot gets here. The stronger primary further north also means faster dry slot. It’s fundamentally a SWFE so the flip to sleet is coming for many. The real question area for sleet to me is around White Plains area to coastal CT and northern NJ. Agreed about the primary - that's key. A weaker, further south primary won't push the dryslot as far north. That could lead to a continuation of light precipitation after the thump into the overnight as opposed to a quick end. The RGEM has been steadily flatting the longwave trof, which would be associated with a weaker primary... but models historically weaken this feature too quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Looks like the GFS is going to be more amped/warmer than 6z at least. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 12z Suite Total QPF / Snow/sleet Frz Rn (10:1) - NYC SREF: 1.4 / (8.8) NAM: 1.7 / (14.6) RGEM: 1.1 / (7.8) ICON: 1.2 / (8.0) GFS: 1.4 / (12.4) GGEM: 1.1 / (8.8) GEFS: 1.5 / (11.6) UKMET: 0.5 / ( 6.7) Euro AI AIFS: 1/1 / (10.2) Euro : 0.9 / (6.9) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 7 minutes ago, jm1220 said: To me it’s been steady as she goes for the last 2 days. There’ll be a very heavy initial thump of snow then we flip to sleet at least around I-80 and south for a while, looks like around mid to late afternoon. Hopefully by then most of the precip is done. The questions are really what happens on Monday with any coastal development and how fast the dry slot gets here. The stronger primary further north also means faster dry slot. It’s fundamentally a SWFE so the flip to sleet is coming for many. The real question area for sleet to me is around White Plains area to coastal CT and northern NJ. I think it's still a bit too early to narrow down how far north the meaningful sleet line makes it but I think it'll be somewhere in a range from about 30 miles south or north of I80/NYC. Ideally we'd want to probably see it south of NYC today expecting the last second north bump with middle level warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1/23 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 The GFS is joining the other guidance but not quite to the RGEM it looks like. Pretty good model agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, eduggs said: The GFS is joining the other guidance but not quite to the RGEM it looks like. Pretty good model agreement. Its starting earlier on the gfs with a big thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1/23 1z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 poll on the city accumulations https://x.com/cryptogeek101/status/2014501541592420854?s=46 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Sleet to LI by 0z but still a great run CNJ north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Astoriaweather Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Some NYC area Mets are increasing totals for the city this morning. Others, like Tomer, are really down playing things and seem skeptical of even 6 inches in the city. https://x.com/MikeMasco/status/2014682599302607146?s=20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 4 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: poll on the city accumulations https://x.com/cryptogeek101/status/2014501541592420854?s=46 I don't have and don't want an X account - can't you start a thread here ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Gfs basically stayed the same. A little less snow to the north but went up a bit south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Models look great! Back to work 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 15 minutes ago, jm1220 said: To me it’s been steady as she goes for the last 2 days. There’ll be a very heavy initial thump of snow then we flip to sleet at least around I-80 and south for a while, looks like around mid to late afternoon. Hopefully by then most of the precip is done. The questions are really what happens on Monday with any coastal development and how fast the dry slot gets here. The stronger primary further north also means faster dry slot. It’s fundamentally a SWFE so the flip to sleet is coming for many. The real question area for sleet to me is around White Plains area to coastal CT and northern NJ. Agree, what happens south of the Merrit and between 287 and 80 is still a big questionmark 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Long Island is going to get screwed with early sleet isn’t it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1/23 12z GFS Total QPF storm: Total Snow/Sleet Frz rn (10:1) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarcmmKU Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 hour ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: barely any sleet on the nam New York City and north! Snows well into Monday! If the NAM continues to show this I'd be bullish. NAM is typically good at detecting the northern extent of the sleet line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 2 minutes ago, Astoriaweather said: Some NYC area Mets are increasing totals for the city this morning. Others, like Tomer, are really down playing things and seem skeptical of even 6 inches in the city. https://x.com/MikeMasco/status/2014682599302607146?s=20 Be careful with some of these online YouTube" Mets" for obvious reasons ....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 GFS yet again remains best case scenario. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, WestBabylonWeather said: Long Island is going to get screwed with early sleet isn’t it. No. It’s a great run for us. Still 12+ and cold. It’s coming. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 4 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: Long Island is going to get screwed with early sleet isn’t it. Based on the 12z GFS for Long Island, it looks like about 6-8 inches of snow before changeover to sleet around 5-7 pm. Then perhaps another 2 inches of sleet. I do not see Long Island with 14 inches of snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 4 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: Long Island is going to get screwed with early sleet isn’t it. No lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 GFS yet again remains best case scenario. Looking very similar to NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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