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1/23/26-1/25/26 Winter Storm Thread


AMZ8990
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I felt terrible for him. It’s hard to read these mods and see our snow disappear, I can’t imagine being on here living in Halls watching it rain and reading about Maynardville 15 minutes away having 8+ inches of snow.


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I still feel bad because it’s been awhile for Tellico to see a pretty decent snow. I was hoping he would cash in this go around.


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I think for East Tennessee this storm will be in many ways similar to the January snow in 24. In that storm areas closer to the mountains got robbed but as you approached the I-75, I-40/I-81 corridor you got to meaningful snow accumulations. If you are closer to the mountains you got too much downslope. For this storm I could see it be similar but instead of snow it will be primarily freezing rain. One key difference this time though I do think CAD will do the wrap around back into Tennessee from North Georgia, not super common but has happened before, with that southern areas like Chattanooga and Cleveland could get more than expected in general of course not snow but ice. That CAD wrap around could also keep the valley away from the mountains colder longer in general as it gets pumped back north by southerly flow. That's my thoughts for East Tennessee valley. Plateau West definitely need to prepare for long duration event for sure, and western and northern great valley I believe is in the same boat with long duration ice event.

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I've officially given up on this storm for Knoxville. I think it might start out as a little snow, switch to sleet/freezing rain, and then end as a cold rain that will, hopefully, melt any sleet/freezing rain accumulation we receive. While the end result has been disappointing, it has been fun tracking the storm with everyone! I'm going to have nightmares the next time I hear the term "baja low"!  

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Just want to thank everyone for their input and analysis the past few days. I am worried about the duration of the freezing rain event for KTRI. I am now just hoping all hope for significant downsloping to get surface temps above freezing. I have thrown in the towel for snow. Yes, we may still see 3 to 4 inches here. But it will not be fun if the ice accumulation occurs. The grid here can't handle anything over .5, God forbid .75, without greatly increasing the scale of damage to infrastructure. I am hopeful that a change over to heavy rain could result in significant melting before strong NW surface flow hits.

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I think for East Tennessee this storm will be in many ways similar to the January snow in 24. In that storm areas closer to the mountains got robbed but as you approached the I-75, I-40/I-81 corridor you got to meaningful snow accumulations. If you are closer to the mountains you got too much downslope. For this storm I could see it be similar but instead of snow it will be primarily freezing rain. One key difference this time though I do think CAD will do the wrap around back into Tennessee from North Georgia, not super common but has happened before, with that southern areas like Chattanooga and Cleveland could get more than expected in general of course not snow but ice. That CAD wrap around could also keep the valley away from the mountains colder longer in general as it gets pumped back north by southerly flow. That's my thoughts for East Tennessee valley. Plateau West definitely need to prepare for long duration event for sure, and western and northern great valley I believe is in the same boat with long duration ice event.

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I’m tracking with this other than you saying the predominant ptype being freezing rain. Think the models are over selling the freezing rain aspect due to modeled lower surface temps but the other ingredients aren’t really there for a ton of icing other than in transition. We’ll see.. especially if/when CAD sets in as that could stir things up.
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14 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said:

I think for East Tennessee this storm will be in many ways similar to the January snow in 24. In that storm areas closer to the mountains got robbed but as you approached the I-75, I-40/I-81 corridor you got to meaningful snow accumulations. If you are closer to the mountains you got too much downslope. For this storm I could see it be similar but instead of snow it will be primarily freezing rain. One key difference this time though I do think CAD will do the wrap around back into Tennessee from North Georgia, not super common but has happened before, with that southern areas like Chattanooga and Cleveland could get more than expected in general of course not snow but ice. That CAD wrap around could also keep the valley away from the mountains colder longer in general as it gets pumped back north by southerly flow. That's my thoughts for East Tennessee valley. Plateau West definitely need to prepare for long duration event for sure, and western and northern great valley I believe is in the same boat with long duration ice event.

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I ended up with 10 or 11 inches the morning after that event. Way waaaay more than forecast.

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7 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Just want to thank everyone for their input and analysis the past few days. I am worried about the duration of the freezing rain event for KTRI. I am now just hoping all hope for significant downsloping to get surface temps above freezing. I have thrown in the towel for snow. Yes, we may still see 3 to 4 inches here. But it will not be fun if the ice accumulation occurs. The grid here can't handle anything over .5, God forbid .75, without greatly increasing the scale of damage to infrastructure. I am hopeful that a change over to heavy rain could result in significant melting before strong NW surface flow hits.

The 12z NAM was rough for TRI.

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The 12z NAM was rough for TRI.
You hate to see it, Carver. We still hold some cards. But it's getting dangerously close to the event. I will say we've been very lucky the past three to four decades regarding heavy ice accumulations. I think it was even '77 or '78 the last time KTRI saw icing on a scale that could play out in this event. Hopefully, it does not.
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2 minutes ago, BlunderStorm said:

I can hardly fathom an outcome worse than this (for this system). Crippling ice in my neck of the woods that run. Gives me dread but I can't help but be amused. Lucie got me. She got all of us.

For sure.  You can see where the cold is banking up against the Plateau on the east side of the Valley.  @Daniel Boone, that is your country.  With all three short range models cooling off...could be a problem. The HH hunter Twitter poster noted it might take several runs for data to impact things.  I also think Fountain made a good point...CAD highs on modeling tend to strengthen as they get closer to events and models can better depict the surface.  I do think that "might" be happening on our side of the Apps as well.  I need to dig a bit more...but the warm nose looked less intense across modeling or maybe just less durations.  I also wonder if the vortices and air masses are getting better sampled as they get closer.

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2 minutes ago, Windspeed said:
23 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:
The 12z NAM was rough for TRI.

You hate to see it, Carver. We still hold some cards. But it's getting dangerously close to the event. I will say we've been very lucky the past three to four decades regarding heavy ice accumulations. I think it was even '77 or '78 the last time KTRI saw icing on a scale that could play out in this event. Hopefully, it does not.

Flirting with trouble for sure if models continue to cool off. 

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Just now, Carvers Gap said:

Flirting with trouble for sure if models continue to cool off. 

I do remember the horrible ice storm that hit Knoxville my senior year at UT...1982...and I believe it was early February. Also, seem to remember it was bad in Kingsport too. It was quite the sight to see Cumberland Avenue become an ice rink.

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