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ShawnEastTN

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About ShawnEastTN

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KTYS
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Ten Mile, TN

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  1. ShawnEastTN

    Winter Speculation 2018/19

    I'd also almost argue we would generally want AN or at least normal September and October to get a possible BN November, since we don't tend to keep cold air around very long in the forum especially late fall to early winter.
  2. ShawnEastTN

    Spring/Summer 2018 Observations

    Nice summer time OBS... Mt. LeConte weather station recorded an overnight low last night of 36 and high of only 53 yesterday!
  3. ShawnEastTN

    Spring and Summer Banter 2018

    Hmm... Might explain why my Bell Peppers haven't done well this year, surely they can correctly identify my bell peppers from space and that they are not the illegal variety their secret program is intended for. I live about 10 miles or so as the crow flies to the NE of Watts Bar, so repeated radar views over the years especially after they brought the second reactor online I have noticed it enough to make me wonder if it were possible to enhance rainfall on the extreme local area.
  4. ShawnEastTN

    Spring and Summer Banter 2018

    Wanted to post on this for a while, but it makes me feel a bit like I should be wearing a foil hat when I think about it. I've noticed that there are a lot of times but definitely not all the time, when there is a weather system or favorable conditions for storms that there is often a heavier bullseye of precip right near Watts Bar nuclear plant. Its not always over the plant but sometimes is, usually its just east, or north of the plant. I see this in a lot of events when checking both Hytop Radar, and MRX radar and both show the same thing. I've read a few stories on nuclear plants effecting really a micro-scale area with its steam discharge, one of the most interesting I read several years back was in PA. (Nuclear Plant Snow Article LiveScience) very interesting read. Was curious if the effect I see at Watts Bar is something similar. See attached radar image from MRX, Hytop corroborates the estimate. Could be coincidental, but I just wonder if there is the possibility of the mass amount of steam released has any potential impact on the micro scale. The image below the larger diameter circle is the area I usually see these anomalies the smaller circle is where the plant is located, just to the northwest inside the larger circle there are measurements over 2" precipitation . Any thoughts on this? Should I put my foil hat back on? BTW lurking waiting for winter....
  5. ShawnEastTN

    Winter Banter 2017/18

    Not sure if anyone else has come across this article, but very interesting read on a study from Dartmouth claiming average cooling of 1.2 degrees for the SE since the 1950s. Very interesting read in how it is an anomaly to the global pattern. Dartmouth Warming Hole Study
  6. ShawnEastTN

    Historic Tennessee Valley Cold, Snow, and Ice Events

    One of my favorite busts in a winter forecast in recent memory was February of 2015, its actually interesting to go back and look at the forecast thread and then the obs thread here on the forum for the event because it was such a serious bust for many. Initially the morning of the storm WWAs were issued for most of the great valley for 2-4". Then the event started in the late afternoon for southern areas around chatt, and was way over performing, MRX bumped to WSW for 3-6", then kept updating their snowfall graphic upward. Couple of those clips from the old thread below, by the time all was said and done many got between 7-12".
  7. ShawnEastTN

    Historic Tennessee Valley Cold, Snow, and Ice Events

    93 has seared my brain forever. Almost everything you mention even for the valley is spot on, 2 days before watching WRCB in Chattanooga Paul Barys coming right out and saying very frankly we are in for a potential blizzard and used the word blizzard. I remember people saying he was crazy all the way up till the storm, then couldn't believe he was right. I do remember it raining at my house until about midnight that night, then giant wet flakes and the wind was literally howling outside. I remember waking up at about 4AM because the wind literally was loud, peaked out the door only for the wind to blow a crazy amount of snow in so I slammed it shut, then went to the window and could barely see the street light just outside the house by about 100 feet, it was snowing so hard it was blurred that much. Then to my complete shock I witnessed then and still the only time in the eastern US, thundersnow. Everything ourside went purple, I say everything but really it was just snowing so hard you could only see just this bright purple flash then the thunder which was muffled but definitely thunder after it was pretty incredible. Then of course having no power for a week afterward, and the morning after all you could smell was pine from all the fallen trees. So much damage, it was incredible. My yard averaged 20" of snow with drifts up to 5', I was 13 and 5' snow drifts were up to my armpits. Will never forget that storm!
  8. ShawnEastTN

    Winter Speculation 17/18 -December Thread

    Like John was mentioning earlier there are a lot of us that are only here for the winter, I am one of those folks generally speaking though I poke at the forum late summer and fall for long range banter but don't contribute. Long range climatology is generally way over my head that I don't partake trying to piece all of it together other than to read what everyone else contributes and their summaries. I do enjoy reading those even if some are far fetched. Though I also enjoy Jeff's frankness/sarcasm, I don't regard it as being negative in anyway at least not being negative to be negative. We always have winters that look great then fail to deliver sometimes forum wide, other times for parts of the forum. The uncertainty is what makes it interesting for me and most addictive, if big snows were certain every year I likely would never be on the forum. For me its the thrill of the chase I guess (probably a bigger theme in my life in general) that keeps me interested. Without the years that suck we wouldn't have those seriously memorable years for me 93, 96, 2010, and 2015 to name a few. Though I have to say this year will be memorable for the long duration cold. Seriously I really love our forum, and everyone who contributes and look forward every year to the chase to begin all over again. I joined the forum the winter of 2013/14 after getting completely fed up with crappuweather forums for years before that, have never looked back.
  9. ShawnEastTN

    2017-2018 Winter Observations

    Woke this morning to deck and cars covered in sleet, not sure when last night it started but it must have sleeted for a good while have about .2" of an inch on some surfaces while it is currently moderately raining and 34. Sleet doesn't seem to want to melt.
  10. ShawnEastTN

    Winter Speculation 17/18 -December Thread

    Well now up to 32, appears the cold imby is beginning to get eroded.
  11. ShawnEastTN

    Winter Speculation 17/18 -December Thread

    NWS low for the night 36, currently 29.... Haven't seen any WAA today or this evening, no wind to speak of today or currently.
  12. ShawnEastTN

    Feb 1st-2nd 2018 Potential Snow Event.

    In the valley and have mix precip now rain and sleet/graupel.
  13. ShawnEastTN

    Feb 1st-2nd 2018 Potential Snow Event.

    Im in the gap on the radar waiting for the precip on the plateau to move off, I'm probably about right in temp now just need precip. Sitting at 37.7.
  14. ShawnEastTN

    Feb 1st-2nd 2018 Potential Snow Event.

    Down to 38 still rain currently here.
  15. ShawnEastTN

    Feb 1st-2nd 2018 Potential Snow Event.

    Down to 40 now.... Hopefully that 37 degree temp is the magic temp from reports of snow start for other areas. A few degrees to go here, that is if we can keep the moisture.
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