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ShawnEastTN

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About ShawnEastTN

Profile Information

  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KTYS
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Ten Mile, TN

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  1. ShawnEastTN

    January 2019 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion

    Technically I prefer at this stage the precip show south and east of us. How many times over the years models show a massive accumulation over the forum area only for it to shift North and West plastering Kentucky for example in the final few days and blanking us. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
  2. ShawnEastTN

    January 2019 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion

    I was just about to post the same. Still seeing returns as far south and west as Little Rock. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
  3. ShawnEastTN

    January 2019 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion

    I am extremely excited, and hopeful but there is a part of me that begins to worry about storm track suppression if we can't get something at the start of the cold intrusion especially with it being so insanely strong. We seem to score at the start of an outbreak and when it begins to retreat so I'm hopeful we can get our break. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
  4. ShawnEastTN

    January 2019 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion

    It also seems like it's been quite a long time since I've seen the fantasy storms and cold being modeled relatively consistently. Maybe 3 or 4 years since I remember seeing multiple fantasy storms coming up on multiple runs. Of course getting them over the hump out of fantasy into closer range will be nice. I have to say I'm getting pretty excited, and I usually temper that quite a bit. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
  5. ShawnEastTN

    January 2019 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion

    850s look a bit better on 12z EPS at least at onset. Hopefully a trend. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
  6. ShawnEastTN

    January 2019 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion

    12z GFS has trended further south with the surface low by about 100 miles on panel 96 and 102. Hopefully the start of a trend. Edit:. At 108 even further south than previous run. Thermals all still look horrible. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
  7. ShawnEastTN

    Winter 'Tis the Season Banter Thread 2018-2019

    Can confirm as of just a minute ago they are convective. Nice close bolt in Kingston just down the road from Harriman. Made me jump as I was running to my car in the rain in a parking lot. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
  8. ShawnEastTN

    Winter 'Tis the Season Banter Thread 2018-2019

    I have to say I'm starting to worry about this season... Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
  9. ShawnEastTN

    December 8-10 Storm Discussion

    12Z GFS out to 54 looks about like a carbon copy of 6Z.
  10. ShawnEastTN

    December 8-10 Storm Discussion

    GFS running now...
  11. ShawnEastTN

    December 8-10 Storm Discussion

    That famous north and west jog used to always be prevalent in the last 24 to 48 hour window of modeling.
  12. ShawnEastTN

    December 8-10 Storm Discussion

    @[email protected][email protected] Absolutely, I wouldn't tap out completely yet, we see this frequently year to year where a storm's northern precip shield is vastly under modeled, on one hand if that is the case and there is more dry air in northern areas (stronger and or further south High), could help with evaporational cooling for many in northern fringes. To me a tick south at this stage in the game isn't a bad thing. The FV3 is still generous.
  13. ShawnEastTN

    December 8-10 Storm Discussion

    That is true. I know the feeling I stay colder in WAA situations for much longer and that is missed all the time. The areas around Roane, Rhea and Meigs for some reason seem to get trapped cold and get ice much longer than most in WAA. Always annoyed me they would not notice this happening over and over year after year. The southern plateau I believe creates a sort of shadow for the areas right along the plateau in the valley where WAA rides east of us and takes longer to filter in.
  14. ShawnEastTN

    December 8-10 Storm Discussion

    Was reading their discussion and they are expecting a lot of sleet to cut into snow totals now there. It was a dramatic change by GSP.
  15. ShawnEastTN

    December 8-10 Storm Discussion

    I think MRX just feels most confident about NE TN and SW VA and are waiting for another run or two before issuing further WSWs or WWAs. I bet overnight or in the morning we'll see more products issued for the area.
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