1/23/26-1/25/26 Winter Storm Thread

[Scottie16]

This is reminding somewhat of the mid 2010s (cant remember exact year) where foothills of Monroe Co were spared but Madisonville/Sweetwater are were out of power for a week

2014 iirc. I sat outside and listens to trees fall for hours.


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[John1122]

The EPS is probably closer to the Euro AI than it is the OP Euro, temp wise.

[TellicoWx]

Just now, Scottie16 said:

2014 iirc. I sat outside and listens to trees fall for hours.


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Euro and NAM completely lost the ice solution up until 12-24 hrs out. Seems like GFS and RGEM wouldn't budge but got wrote off.

[Tucker1027]

Big takeaway is NWS is leaning on euro not handling shallow cold air well at all especially in the valley


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[fountainguy97]

40 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

I've learned over the years since moving here in the 1990s to never discount winds rolling into the valley from the mountains.  Worst miss I ever saw was in the 90's (early 90s).  I remember listening to a weather radio in my dorm at ETSU the day before a big snow storm.  12-16 inches of snow was in the forecast and right before going to bed I listened and the NWS updated the forecast to be 16-20".  The next day it rained.  Not even that much.................  was a total bust.  I didn't know it at the time, but it was downslope that not only warmed us into the upper 30's and low 40s, but it also cut the amount of precip that actually fell by 90%.  

that sounds nearly picture perfect what we are likely seeing this weekend. Downsloping may "save" the Eastern region. 

[Silas Lang]

9 minutes ago, Tucker1027 said:

Big takeaway is NWS is leaning on euro not handling shallow cold air well at all especially in the valley


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I think that makes sense. Temps on Euro are straight up hot. I think even the Canadian is more realistic with temps with a similar storm track. 

[fountainguy97]

no doubt about it. 12z looking bleak. I think I'm more than ok with this amping into an apps runner to avoid ice issues. Even though deep down that hurts my weather loving heart. 

I think this one is gone and personally will go down as one of the biggest let downs of an extremely disappointing winter.

[Weatheriscool]

2 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

no doubt about it. 12z looking bleak. I think I'm more than ok with this amping into an apps runner to avoid ice issues. Even though deep down that hurts my weather loving heart. 

I think this one is gone and personally will go down as one of the biggest let downs of an extremely disappointing winter.

I would trade places with you in a heart beat, dont like being under the threat of any amount of icing 

[fountainguy97]

9 minutes ago, Weatheriscool said:

I would trade places with you in a heart beat, dont like being under the threat of any amount of icing 

yeah absolutely I understand that. Maybe 5-6 years ago before I owned a home I would still enjoy an ice setup but now? No thank you.

The 12z Euro actually does have "lighter" zr amounts for TN as a whole. It really pushes the warmth north.  We can hope that continues

[Tucker1027]

I have no clue if this means anything, but went back and looked at this first system that is coming through today at about 3 days out….

Icon handled it the best.


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[ShawnEastTN]

When the rain falls on the pavement, even if the air temperature rises above freezing, those paved surfaces don't heat up at the rate the air does. It will be a f'n mess, that model hasn't factored any of that into its assessment.

Yeah also many many times models don't really do well with most valley areas that are away from the mountains like in the valley north of 40 and west of 75 those areas are often colder than modeled in these situations and don't scour out very easily, so could have longer duration of freezing precip north of 40 and west 75 up to the plateau where downslope isn't as much a factor and the surface cold air can be much more stubborn than modeling often shows. Basically the western half of the great valley.

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[GBOVolz]

no doubt about it. 12z looking bleak. I think I'm more than ok with this amping into an apps runner to avoid ice issues. Even though deep down that hurts my weather loving heart. 
I think this one is gone and personally will go down as one of the biggest let downs of an extremely disappointing winter.

To make myself feel better, I try not to think that the storm changed right before it got here. I try to look at it as the mods were wrong to begin with. I guess either way the result is still the same.


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[miamifin33]

I'm so sorry to ask an IYBY type question, however, I'm not from TN and could use some guidance.  I have a flight scheduled from LGA (NYC) to Nashville at 2PM on Monday the 26th.  What will conditions be looking like in Nashville on Monday, potentially? What is Nashville's ability to recover from a storm like this?

I also understand that conditions in NY may also impact this flight. But I am curious what I may be looking at in Nashville if I do fly in.

Thank you so much!

[John1122]

There looks to be a little more separation on the energy pieces out west on the name through hour 40.

[Vol4Life]

7 minutes ago, *Flash* said:

Looks like the bleeding has stopped…

That’s from 6z

[brewman22001]

That’s from 6z

Let’s face it the look of this storm has changed so much it’s obvious it doesn’t even know what it’s going to do. This has been a trip!!


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[GBOVolz]

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[tnweathernut]

9 minutes ago, Vol4Life said:

That’s from 6z

 - This is 12z

[Reb]

I’m not hating the NAM so far. Likely won’t be enough but it’s looking better

[John1122]

The NAM is about 70 miles better with every piece of the vorts at 500 it looks like. 

[John1122]

No idea if it will make a difference, but the 12z NAM had me at 17 at 4am Saturday, the 18z has me at 14. The HP is further south,

[Mrwolf1972]

This run is south of last run I believe will wait for the end. 

[Reb]

Slightly flatter look so far. Everything helps

[Mrwolf1972]

Very much further south at 72

[Mrwolf1972]

About 4 degrees cooler

[John1122]

The NAM was about 70 miles south with the 850s vs 12z, the 70 mile shift in the vort pieces did it.

[Vol4Life]

Just now, John1122 said:

The NAM was about 70 miles south with the 850s vs 12z, the 70 mile shift in the vort pieces did it.

We need that trend to continue another 2-3 times

[Silas Lang]

Only to 78 hours here, but a good trend based on surface output. Ignore the numbers as this is probably sleet.

[Silas Lang]

Looks like surface temps are closest to the GFS at this point. 

[Vol4Life]

18z run of GFS will be interesting…