January 24-25: Miracle or Mirage

[87storms]

6 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

It’s worse than the Euro for sure. It’s like a cross between Euro and Icon. The N/S absolutely destroys any chance that run. The 500mb pattern is night and day from  the last two runs. The 5H vort panels say it all. 

We might need to fund a vacuum in the Plains to start pulling NS vorts further south and west...maybe we'll at least get some clippers out of it.

[high risk]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

As for the AIGFS, look what's shown up over the Dakotas this run that nothing at 12z and didn't exist at 6z. Our little friend again.

          It's not "new" per se; it's just faster on both the GFS and AIGFS.

[stormtracker]

5 minutes ago, mappy said:

Geez Randy, you had to go and make a thread 

imma kill you

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

To me, the GFS this run actually looks a little better than 12Z.  Why are people saying it's "worse"?  There was almost literally nothing getting up to DC and north at 12Z, now it looks like 2-4", maybe 3-5"?

[Terpeast]

After the big mood letdown, I went and checked which models have been performing best at 500mb at 96-120 hours.

AIFS ensembles and AIFS op hold the top 2, with EPS being a close third. Op euro in the middle of the pack, as is gefs. Op gfs at the bottom-middle, same with op cmc.

AI GFS no idea - hasn’t been scored yet 

[Ji]

Put it this way…there are weenies in North Carolina who are putting all their hopes on the gfs right now

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, high risk said:

          It's not "new" per se; it's just faster on both the GFS and AIGFS.

And that's the problem.  It shows up way to soon.

[H2O]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

After the big mood letdown, I went and checked which models have been performing best at 500mb at 96-120 hours.

AIFS ensembles and AIFS op hold the top 2, with EPS being a close third. Op euro in the middle of the pack, as is gefs. Op gfs at the bottom-middle, same with op cmc.

AI GFS no idea - hasn’t been scored yet 

Cliff jumping will halt with this post. The GFS(both types) having low scores or none just means they have to be weighted less. If the 500lvl changes are that big as was mentioned then trusting the GFS right now isn’t smart

[mitchnick]

Anyone interested in maps from 18z GGEM, you can get them at the link below. Just be prepared to go back in time when you look at them.

https://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/forecast-systems.php?lang=en&mod=cmc_gdps

[wxdude64]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

Put it this way…there are weenies in North Carolina who are putting all their hopes on the gfs right now

True

[bncho]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Anyone interested in maps from 18z GGEM, you can get them at the link below. Just be prepared to go back in time when you look at them.

https://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/forecast-systems.php?lang=en&mod=cmc_gdps

Jeez, I have no idea where to go on that website. Just show us the money panels.

[rjvanals]

Wasn’t the GFS predicting a crippling blizzard for this past weekend 100 hrs out? 

[mappy]

Just now, bncho said:

Jeez, I have no idea where to go on that website. Just show us the money panels.

You should try and figure it out

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

Put it this way…there are weenies in North Carolina who are putting all their hopes on the gfs right now

Which leads to the inevitable question Stormtracker continues to ponder...Do you feel lucky punk? Well do ya'?

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

4 minutes ago, rjvanals said:

Wasn’t the GFS predicting a crippling blizzard for this past weekend 100 hrs out? 

More often than not the GFS doesn’t lead the way with trends.  Hopefully it’s not this time! If this trends to a dud for us with the gfs leading the way I’m gonna be very on tilt for rest of winter. 

[clskinsfan]

I really dont get the angst over the 18Z GFS. It looks great at this lead time. It's gonna snow ya'll. And not everyone gets the bullseye. Thats the way the game goes. 

[TSSN+]

Gefs is way south but honestly idc.

[winter_warlock]

GFS was a definite trend in right direction

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

I really dont get the angst over the 18Z GFS. It looks great at this lead time. It's gonna snow ya'll. And not everyone gets the bullseye. Thats the way the game goes. 

I think it's because it was coupled with it's AI counterpart also going way south, lol

Edit: And now the gefs too

[mitchnick]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Gefs is way south but honestly idc.

That kicker in the Dakotas is the problem on the Gfs suite this run. Will it start showing up on other guidance is the question. 

[stormtracker]

14 minutes ago, H2O said:

Cliff jumping will halt with this post. The GFS(both types) having low scores or none just means they have to be weighted less. If the 500lvl changes are that big as was mentioned then trusting the GFS right now isn’t smart

3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I really dont get the angst over the 18Z GFS. It looks great at this lead time. It's gonna snow ya'll. And not everyone gets the bullseye. Thats the way the game goes. 

 

You new here?

[Solution Man]

The way the gfs is now shouldn’t alarm anyone. It showed an 80 inch snowstorm in Pa last week. Let it play out

[Ji]

Gefs is way south but honestly idc.

You should care. Especially if euro follows suit

[Scraff]

14 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

To me, the GFS this run actually looks a little better than 12Z.  Why are people saying it's "worse"?  There was almost literally nothing getting up to DC and north at 12Z, now it looks like 2-4", maybe 3-5"?

Not sure the reason for doom or gloom. If I had just been looking at the model and not reading in here, toggled back and forth to previous runs, this looked great. Definitely moved in the right direction for snow vs none in previous runs. Maybe I’m missing something? 

[rjvanals]

2 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

More often than not the GFS doesn’t lead the way with trends.  Hopefully it’s not this time! If this trends to a dud for us with the gfs leading the way I’m gonna be very on tilt for rest of winter. 

I’ll be on total tilt as well since it’s had 2 MECS within 100 hrs for the area and been wrong so hopefully it’s just as wrong on this one as well.

Having it finally score a coup on this potential storm would be so tilting. 

[CAPE]

Subtle differences in the interaction between the pieces of h5 vorticity make a pretty significant difference at the surface downsteam- one such difference occurs here with a lack of phasing between the NW energy dropping southward and the Baja vortex.

Compare to 12z- some phasing occurs and vorticity from the SW energy ejects eastward contributing to more amplification and sooner.

 

 

[H2O]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

You new here?

Caveat: it was just for 30 min until the AI CRAS comes out. Then more jumping. 
 

temp down to 34°. Should stick once precip starts 

[stormtracker]

Here's the thing, nobody should put much weight in the GFS now, but I don't care how much I'm ridiculed, I'd like to see it on board if I'm being honest.

People have gotta stop being binary.  Me saying I wanna see it onboard doesn't mean I'm in angst over what it shows now.  For me, it's just a caution and prevents me from being overly confident/hyped.

[IUsedToHateCold]

The official die roll for this event is 11

50/50 chance

And yeah, I'd toss any solution that gives New Bern, NC 20 inches of snow until it becomes a repeat thing.

[H2O]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Here's the thing, nobody should put much weight in the GFS now, but I don't care how much I'm ridiculed, I'd like to see it on board if I'm being honest.

People have gotta stop being binary.  Me saying I wanna see it onboard doesn't mean I'm in angst over what it shows now.  For me, it's just a caution and prevents me from being overly confident/hyped.

The GFS is an important weather model. It isn’t always totally wrong. It isn’t always right. It shows one of many possibilities that have to be considered. If its wheelhouse is closer to 4 days then tomorrow it can cave or drag others towards it. Or the models meet in. The middle and gives a decent snow