January 24-25: Miracle or Mirage

[Cobalt]

Just now, LP08 said:

I can see it now.......Forecast 8-12 30%, Boom 10-15 20%, Bust 4-8 30%, Sadness 20%

10% luck, 20% skill, 15% concentrated power of will?

[midatlanticweather]

9 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Not quite as good

Seasonal /yearly trend?? Drier when we get to the day? Seems this region wants to remain in a drought.. I am just sharing as it has been a common trend. 

[Ji]

is euro delayed again? WHen does it start usually?

 

[TSSN+]

Just now, midatlanticweather said:

Seasonal /yearly trend?? Drier when we get to the day? Seems this region wants to remain in a drought.. I am just sharing as it has been a common trend. 

No it is  cause like 1/4 the members are super south 

[stormtracker]

Just now, Ji said:

is euro delayed again? WHen does it start usually?

 

It's late...or shall I say dissemination issues with the vendors.   Don't want the model guys to kill me. 

[weathercoins]

5 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Ok I’ll be driving during the Euro. Cant wait to see the comments when I park. However, if anyone can text me with updates, please do so. Would be greatly appreciated. # is 936-1212. Thanks! 

That number brings back some serious childhood memories 

[WEATHER53]

58 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This GGEM run is pretty close to what I see as the worst case scenario, but yes it's a realistic option...it's also showing 6"+ of snow followed by a lot of sleet which is not a bad event, if we don't start expecting HECS level snow when were still 4 days away.  

I don’t know what much else we are supposed to think when that is what is presented.  If that is to be wholly disregarded when presented then that is part of models overall problems 

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

It's late...or shall I say dissemination issues with the vendors.   Don't want the model guys to kill me. 

Go figure when we await it for some confirmation on things it is late. 

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

It's late...or shall I say dissemination issues with the vendors.   Don't want the model guys to kill me. 

They needed time to launch more balloons I heard.

[WxUSAF]

GEFS is odd but I’m good with including weak/south members in a mental super ensemble with other guidance, especially when the general trend is more amplified. And tonight’s 0z run is probably the last time I’d care about GEFS anyway for this storm?

[Nomz]

I'll settle for the bullseye up here in DC, lol

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z GEFS has a lot of whiffs

[WEATHER53]

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah, seems like we're dealing with a whole different animal.  Remember when we were worried about suppression?  

Banking on something not even to CA coast much less formed and moving probably should not be in a forecast

[LeesburgWx]

We all should really wait until 00z tonight when the new data is in. That’s when we should either celebrate or panic 

[Nomz]

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z GEFS has a lot of whiffs

This is all sorts of fucked, doesn't make much sense. I would love the GFS operational outcome but it also doesn't really make sense. Mentally throwing out the GFS fam 12z suite.

[TSSN+]

0 consistency on that thing. EPS was much more similar for each member. 

[osfan24]

3 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z GEFS has a lot of whiffs

Seems like a mixture of huge hits and whiffs. I wonder if the huge hits mix though.

[yoda]

RLX has issued WSWatches

[stormtracker]

Late ECMWF DataSubscribe

Investigating - We currently see no 12z data queued or being disseminated from ECMWF. We will process data as soon as they provide it.
Jan 21, 2026 - 12:29 EST

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

RLX has issued WSWatches

Watches now stretch from New Mexico to West Virginia. It's truly a thing of beauty.

[yoda]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Watches now stretch from New Mexico to West Virginia. It's truly a thing of beauty.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1228 PM EST Wed Jan 21 2026

WVZ523-526-220130-
/O.NEW.KRLX.WS.A.0001.260124T1200Z-260126T1200Z/
/O.CON.KRLX.WW.Y.0005.260121T2100Z-260122T1500Z/
Northwest Pocahontas-Southeast Randolph-
Including the cities of Harman and Snowshoe
1228 PM EST Wed Jan 21 2026

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...

* WHAT...For the Winter Weather Advisory today and tonight, mixed
  precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches
  and ice accumulations around a light glaze. Winds gusting as high
  as 45 mph.

For the Winter Storm Watch this weekend, heavy snow possible. Total
snow accumulations between 10 and 15 inches possible. Locally higher
amounts possible.

* WHERE...Northwest Pocahontas and Southeast Randolph Counties.

* WHEN...For the Winter Weather Advisory, from 4 PM this afternoon
  to 10 AM EST Thursday.

For the Winter Storm Watch, from Saturday morning through Monday
morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the evening and Thursday morning
  commutes. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches.

[caviman2201]

10 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z GEFS has a lot of whiffs

lol so CMC/Ukie drive a low into Buffalo and some GEFS members are suppressed to Raleigh... I suppose that's not that unexpected 4 days out

[stormtracker]

It has begun

[CAPE]

12 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z GEFS has a lot of whiffs

I only see 2, and several more that have light precip on the northern edge- and those mostly have a tight gradient, ie close to good.

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

I don’t know what much else we are supposed to think when that is what is presented.  If that is to be wholly disregarded when presented then that is part of models overall problems 

I won't tell anyone what they should think.  But what I think when presented with a scenario like this is that the potential is there for an HECS level event... but there are 3 caveats we have to acknowledge. 

1) the setup here does support the possibility of a major event...the key components we need are all in place, blocking, 50/50, arctic high.  But those things don't guarantee a max potential outcome...we sometimes have all that and the details don't fall our way and an event fails to reach HECS level.  I am not talking about a total fail but plenty of times we have the potential for an HECS and only get a SECS or MECS because some minor details didn't work out

2) the guidance has never universally shown HECS results, not like 2016 when across the board EVERY DAMN THING showed 20" totals.  This time each run we've had 1 or 2 peices of data showing that...but we've also had some less enthusiastic output.  The GFS showing some deamplified wave, the UK or GGEM with some over amplified mixed event.  We have not had run after run of across the board uniformity agreement on a HECS.  That indicates there is still variability to this and an HECS is not necessarily the most likely outcome 

3) Even if the guidance did show 100% agreement on an HECS at 100 hours out...we have to acknowledge the limitations and faults in this guidance.  Yes our models are flawed, we don't yet have the scientific ability to model the atmosphere accurately at 100 hours.  It's possible the guidance is wrong in some way and things will shift by this weekend.  It's ok to admit this.  But it's also important to also admit without the models we would have no freaking idea there was a big storm even possible on Sunday.  So there is a benefit...that benefit is not that we can know for sure what is coming 4 days out though.  

[mappy]

Please let Randy do pbp! 

[yoda]

RNK will probably have watches up in the next 6-12 hours

[Nomz]

In maybe 24 hours there will be watches+ from probably mexico to NYC

[stormy]

12z GEM went south.   My sleet dropped from 3.0" to 1.5".    Kuchera increased from 13.6 to 15.7.

850 and 700 a wash with 00z.

[LVblizzard]

I’m in Vermont for some skiing and I noticed it was 12:30 so I got comfy in the lodge and got ready to watch the Euro come out. Instead I find out it’s delayed and who the hell knows when it’ll start to come out. This run better be good to make up for that.